Talk:Operation Gideon (2020)/Analysis

Copied from Operation Gideon (2020) as of diff 1177498226 27 September 2023

Description of event
The event was described by numerous sources internationally as being an attempted "coup",  with The Guardian classifying the attack as "one of the least successful attempted coups in history" while Vox's Alex Ward wrote that the Guaidó and Silvercorp documents "explicitly outline what was agreed to: a coup". Ronal Rodríguez, Head of Del Rosario University's Observatory for Venezuela, stated "Operation Gideon is agreeing with Chavismo, which has always accused the opposition of being undemocratic and coup-mongering and of promoting exits outside constitutional frameworks".

The Los Angeles Times wrote that the event "quickly became a Maduro rallying cry, a Bay of Pigs in miniature, complete with a pair of captured U.S. gunmen". Many media outlets mocked the operation, describing it as "The Bay of Piglets", comparing it to the failed Bay of Pigs Invasion.

Guaidó government's alleged involvement
Ricardo Sucre Heredia, a political analyst of the Central University of Venezuela, stated that the opposition's strategy of promoting insurrection within the Venezuelan armed forces was "a strategy that has not yielded results" and that the Guaidó government's approach of "all options are on the table and under the table" suggests an opposition with criminal and dictatorial tendencies. He also explained that despite Guaidó's statements distancing himself from the operation, the fact that the opposition leader considered the option shows that he had abandoned an electoral solution to the Venezuelan political crisis.

In a BBC Mundo article, two analysts were interviewed; risk consultant Dimitris Pantoulas, and head of the Datanálisis consultant firm Luis Vicente León. When discussing Guaidó's alleged involvement with Silvercorp, Pantoulas stated that "the opposition has given many different versions" and that the divisions within the opposition pressured Guaidó to choose between supporting negotiations with Maduro or resorting to violence. Pantoulas and León agreed that Guaidó's image was tarnished by the incident and that he had not made progress for political change in Venezuela. León explained that the opposition must decide if it should participate in parliamentary elections moving forward, stating "the opposition seems to have exhausted the routes".

The Washington Office on Latin America's Venezuelan expert David Smilde stated that the failed operation "clearly contributes to the deterioration of the opposition's national and international standing". The organization also criticized the Trump administration for "maintaining that 'all options are on the table', including a military option", explaining that such stances by the United States "has tacitly discouraged the Venezuelan opposition from prioritizing negotiations in favor of a theory of change that relies on creating an improbable rupture between the armed forces and the Maduro government".

An analysis by Patricio Zamorano of the Council on Hemispheric Affairs wrote that the event showed that Guaidó controlled large amounts of funding despite his inexperience, that the opposition does not have support from the Venezuelan armed forces and that the Guaidó government was willing to use violence to fulfill political goals. Zamorano states that the failed operation would possibly result with the end of the opposition's support for Guaidó.

Motive for operation
Regarding the head of Silvercorp, Jordan Goudreau, The New York Times wrote that Venezuelans alternatively saw him "as a huckster selling a suicide mission to desperate Venezuelans, as well as a hero committed to liberating the nation". Some sources reported that Goudreau was inspired by 26 March bounty offered by the United States of capturing Maduro and other "high value targets" (HVTs) and sending them to the United States, if the raid were successful. Those close to the incident least "conspiratorial" theory about the motive was Goudreau's ousting from the military in 2016 after suffering a concussion and back injuries, impairing his decision-making capabilities.

Fulton Armstrong, former National Intelligence Officer for Latin America who was once among the most senior analysts within the United States Intelligence Community, stated "The United States has put incentives for this type of operation, ... although everything indicates that this operation was not directed by Washington, everything also indicates that it was approved there", concluding that "there is a pretext for direct military action by the United States, by labeling the former US military detainees as 'hostages' along with the six dual-national Citgo executives under house arrest in Venezuela".