Talk:Opinion polling for the 2022 Israeli legislative election

Graph
I would agree but NH now has two polls in a row below the threshold so we cant just ignore it Braganza (talk) 21:02, 14 August 2021 (UTC)
 * That's exactly what we did in previous elections. Why change it now? ערן117 (talk) 10:55, 15 August 2021 (UTC)
 * because unlike the in previous elections we dont have 1% without numbers but a party which has 4-5 seats, so the graph is wrongly above the threshold Braganza (talk) 11:14, 15 August 2021 (UTC)
 * We had that in the previous election with the Labor party. It will take a few more polls to go below the threshold in the graph because of the moving average. ערן117 (talk) 23:43, 18 August 2021 (UTC)

Location of last election results
The idea that the results of the previous election must be at the bottom is really bad. For one, it is not a poll so it should not receive the same treatment as polls. For comparison to previous results (whether a party gains or loses) it becomes EXTREMELY difficult to scroll up and down and quickly compare making the table largely lose its function. BTW for the exact same reason -functionality- we put the polls descending. The convention for events on enwiki is ascending. Please do not change again without a discussion (!!!) if a different (discriminatory) policy for Israel and people interested in Israeli politics is warranted. If accepted this would be really strange. Usually, we fight against the discrimination against Israel and Israelis at Wikipedia. gidonb (talk) 17:46, 22 August 2021 (UTC)
 * I see that some other countries also have the previous elections last. This is an extremely bad idea as it eradicates much of the functionality of these tables and puts opinion polls and general elections at one level, which is conceptually wrong. The previous results belong on top, just like the other party information (name, color, etc). General elections are NOT small-scale statistical polling. gidonb (talk) 18:00, 22 August 2021 (UTC)

Undocumented Scenario Poll
In the Midgam poll that was conducted at August 20th, there was also a scenario poll asking who would the people vote for were Nir Barkat to lead the Likud. I believe it's appropriate that it would be added to the scenario poll section of the article as was the poll asking about Yuli Edelstein leading the Likud.
 * That poll doesn't sum up to 120 MKs. The results of 4 parties are missing. ערן117 (talk) 15:16, 6 November 2021 (UTC)
 * I have noticed and have tried to contact the polling firm about it, although I haven't got a response. Even if you assume all other parties got the same amount of mandates they only add up to 119 MKs. Still, is there no way of including it? Danido9 (talk) 18:09, 13 November 2021 (UTC)
 * I decided to add this poll despite the missing parties. I think it's important enough to be doccumented. I put "Unknown" over the parties that were't mentioned as well as on the "Gov" results Danido9 (talk) 12:01, 7 April 2022 (UTC)

could you add the new poll by Camil Fuchs, i dont find a good article with all results Braganza (talk) 12:26, 23 December 2021 (UTC)
 * sorry i missed this message, for some reason i do not have editing access for this page as it is protected thus i cannot edit it as I have tried in the past --Danido9 (talk) 13:50, 17 February 2022 (UTC)
 * It was already added ;) Braganza (talk) 14:03, 17 February 2022 (UTC)
 * and if you cant add this you could put the poll in the discussion and ask smb else Braganza (talk) 14:04, 17 February 2022 (UTC)

Missing poll
the article is missing the Janurary 16th poll by N12. Sokuya (talk) 17:27, 21 January 2022 (UTC)
 * I just added it. But why didn't you do it? ערן117 (talk) 14:55, 22 January 2022 (UTC)
 * Its hard with all the scerio polls Sokuya (talk) 18:25, 22 January 2022 (UTC)

Jpost published a poll today, i don't know how to add it — Preceding unsigned comment added by 68.199.208.181 (talk) 18:10, 7 June 2022 (UTC)

Direct Polls
Should we be including polls by Direct Polls/Channel 14? The firm is run by former Netanyahu staffers (one of which, Shlomo Filber, is a witness in the Netanyahu prosecution) and only carried by right-wing media. They regularly self-publish their polls on Twitter. When they release any data at all, which is rare, it shows them polling thousands of people over a single day. They don't release their methodology. The results don't look suspicious but I don't really trust that they're providing us with any independent data. GordonGlottal (talk) 20:34, 16 February 2022 (UTC)
 * While there may be existing biases, as there are with every polling company, I haven't seen any evidence that puts Direct Polls into doubt, Now14 don't conduct polls themselves so I don't see why a poll being published by them would discredit it. Also, the latest direct polls poll as of time of writing is self-published, and hasn't been published by Now14 like the article claims. I would like to see this fixed. --Danido9 (talk) 13:58, 17 February 2022 (UTC)
 * The results are normal, so even if they're biased I don't think it matters for now. What I mean is, I don't really believe they're conducting polls or, if they are, they're just asking an email list. We have no way of knowing if they massage results, ignore outliers, etc. Contracts with major outlets, or outlets which depend on a centrist reputation, provide accountability. Even uncouched citations by major outlets would be significant, but there aren't any. I don't think a Twitter account, a sparse website, and a slick graphic mean we should list them on this page. GordonGlottal (talk) 16:48, 17 February 2022 (UTC)
 * well direct polls have actually been cited by other news outlets including their most recent poll as can be seen here with Reshet13, and have also conducted polls for major news outlets as can be seen here with Keshet12 Danido9 (talk) 12:55, 19 February 2022 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 17 February 2022
Change the publisher of the latest "Direct Polls" poll published on 15 Feb 22 from "Channel 14" to a "-" as done with previous self published "Direct Polls" polls. As shown in the source on the page as well as in this request, the poll was published by "Direct Polls" on Twitter before being covered by the media. Danido9 (talk) 14:23, 17 February 2022 (UTC)
 * Pictogram voting wait.svg Already done if you are referring to the poll dated 13 February P1221 (talk) 09:52, 7 March 2022 (UTC)

Suggestion: Likud scenario polls
A slew of opinion polls were published regarding potential Likud successors, namely: Barkat, Katz, Edelstein, Regev, Erdan. The same polling firms ran with the same panel, creating redundancy (Maagar Mohot 10 January, 18 January, Midgam 16 January, Panels Politics 15-16 December).

Wouldn't it be useful to unite them all into a specific table for Likud leader scenarios? A good model could be the Opinion polling for the 2022 French presidential election before the primaries, many polls ran multiple candidates for the same party. Their names were shown vertically, but this would not be needed here.

Kahlores (talk) 04:45, 24 February 2022 (UTC)


 * i dont like it but imo it looks better than the yellow thing so i will support this Braganza (talk) 06:12, 9 March 2022 (UTC)


 * I like this, although it might get a bit difficult to work with once scenario polls get more complicated Danido9 (talk) 11:46, 13 March 2022 (UTC)

Outdated legend
The legend in the "scenario polls" section is now outdated due to the format change, what should it be changed into? Danido9 (talk) 08:12, 16 March 2022 (UTC)
 * There's a misunderstanding. The new format was suggested specifically for the Likud leadership, because a grand table with sub-columns avoids repeating the basic polls (uncolored rows) for each of the 5, while allowing comparisons between the 5. Otherwise, we could go on as usual. However, there hasn't been any other scenario poll published.
 * Overall, when it comes to hypotheses, we should focus on making comparisons easy. Two or three years ago, I tried to integrate all polls in one big table, including scenario polls (with a colored background), but this wasn't approved. Kahlores (talk) 21:32, 17 March 2022 (UTC)

Events
The table mentions several events which are not really significant to this article. For example the Judea and Samaria bill: This is not the first time the coalition fails a vote, so why mention it? Or MK Zoabi returns to the coalition - well, she voted against the Judea & Samaria bill, so this info is dubious and better removed. ערן117 (talk) 10:34, 8 June 2022 (UTC)
 * Agreed on the Judea and Samaria bill, However Zoabi's return to the coalition is significant because she voted and continues to vote for the government in no confidence votes and Knesset dispersion bills Danido9 (talk) 18:28, 17 June 2022 (UTC)
 * OK, I'm deleting only the Judea & Samaria bill then. ערן117 (talk) 14:47, 20 June 2022 (UTC)

RZP-Otzma Yehudit split
The RZP-Otzma Yehudit split has so far been only technical, and due to issues of funding, and there have been no hints that Otzma and RZP will run separately in the elections. All mainline polls for the time being will show them running together, and those that will show them apart are scenario polls. For now, I think showing the split between the two parties should be reverted. Danido9 (talk) 09:38, 8 July 2022 (UTC)


 * ✅ ערן117 (talk) 10:56, 8 July 2022 (UTC)
 * agree Braganza (talk) 19:55, 8 July 2022 (UTC)


 * To my knowledge, there's only been 1 poll since the split. Danido may well be correct, but perhaps we should wait and see what the pollsters do over the next few polls before we make a change. Eatabullet (talk) 04:18, 9 July 2022 (UTC)
 * @Eatabullet I have no issue with undoing the split. I jumped the gun a bit. David O. Johnson (talk) 17:08, 10 July 2022 (UTC)
 * I've undone the split and moved those two polls into the larger section. David O. Johnson (talk) 20:01, 10 July 2022 (UTC)


 * Greetings David. No worries. Let's see how it plays out. Eatabullet (talk) 00:59, 12 July 2022 (UTC)

The Local regression Graph
On 4 July 2022 @Basque mapping changed the polling average graph into a local regression one, that change was reverted 4 days later by @ David O. Johnson with the reasoning that it was harder to edit. while I understand that it is an issue, in my opinion the local regression graph is much better in conveying the trends in public opinions over time, by showing the individual poll results along the trend lines. Should we bring it back? Danido9 (talk) 12:24, 8 July 2022 (UTC)


 * The editable graph looks terrible and doesn't really show the trends adequately. If @Basque mapping is willing to update the graph regularly, it's definitively the better choice. Gbuvn (talk) 23:16, 8 July 2022 (UTC)
 * I don't think it looks "terrible" but I agree the regression is an improvement, so long as we can keep it updated. This page and predecessors are an insane accomplishment without competitors in any language, but it'll die if it becomes too much work or too reliant on specific editors. GordonGlottal (talk) 01:16, 12 July 2022 (UTC)
 * I see that's it's kept updated, so let's leave it. ערן117 (talk) 06:01, 13 July 2022 (UTC)
 * One thing: Could we use the old color for Yamina in the graph? It's difficult to tell them apart from the Joint List, Blue and White and New Hope. Mikrobølgeovn (talk) 06:41, 13 July 2022 (UTC)
 * On that topic, should BW-NH be shown as a continuation of B&W's trend line, I think it would make more sense to have it as a new trend line to better mark the merger of the two parties. Also, the diamonds marking the election results at the beginning of the graph aren't there for some parties. Danido9 (talk) 22:15, 14 July 2022 (UTC)
 * I think the diamonds are just overlapping, resulting in single diamonds with mixed colors. Don't know if it's a good idea, but one solution could be to recalculate the vote percentages into decimal seats which would split the diamonds apart. --Gbuvn (talk) 13:38, 15 July 2022 (UTC)
 * I do not think that is a good idea. Percentanges are only recalculated into decimal seats when they are below the threshold because the pollsters give only the %. Moreover, in Netherlands the same problem arises and the results are just kept in seats. The graphic is about seats, not percentages. Basque mapping (talk) 22:52, 15 July 2022 (UTC)
 * But wouldn't it be better to show the most accurate results of the elections? As that would give a better picture of where exactly the parties stood in relation to each other? Danido9 (talk) 13:48, 18 July 2022 (UTC)
 * I must admit that I had doubts when I decided to continue B&W trendline, but in previous cases something similar was made. For example, in the 2021 election, Yesh Atid did not show a different trendline when they were Yesh Atid-Telem and when Telem splited. B&W-NH does not have its own Wikipedia page and having B&W, NH and B&W-NH sounds repetitive. Moreover, which colour should be used for the new coalition? Basque mapping (talk) 23:00, 15 July 2022 (UTC)
 * The colour is indeed an issue, still, i think showing it as a continuation of the B&W line creates a false perception that B&W just swallowed NH, and while NH is the junior partner in that coalition, B&W-NH is still a separate entity than just B&W, and i think that difference needs to be made clear somehow. Danido9 (talk) 15:11, 18 July 2022 (UTC)
 * Telem had almost no voters though unlike NH, also would it be possible to change the scale so you can the the smaller parties better? Braganza (talk) 17:33, 27 July 2022 (UTC)
 * @Basque mapping I know you just updated the polling graph yesterday, however there have quite a lot of polls added since. since election silence starts tonight, and the election is on Tuesday, could you update the polling graph again sometimes soon? As of now there are only 2 polls left which have yet to be released and will be tonight. Also, please go over the poll list to see if any polls or data for smaller parties is missing from the graph, as some were only added after you updated it. Danido9 (talk) 11:05, 28 October 2022 (UTC)

New Economic Party
When did the NEP relaunch? The timeline does not say. Mikrobølgeovn (talk) 17:00, 30 July 2022 (UTC)


 * It's not really a relaunch, as the party did not cease to exist after falling behind the threshold, they were simply not polled by anyone until election season started Danido9 (talk) 18:28, 4 August 2022 (UTC)

Latest Midgam poll belongs in Scenario polls
According to this Jerusalem Post article (https://www.jpost.com/israel-elections/article-713394), the latest N12 poll also includes a hypothetical scenario where Otzma and Religious Zionist Party split and contest the election separately; that poll accordingly belongs in the Scenario polls section. David O. Johnson (talk) 23:51, 30 July 2022 (UTC)

Sources used
Please stop using secondary sources when covering polls, they are often missing the results for parties below the threshold, or don't include prime minister or scenario polls. Always source the publisher that ordered the poll. Danido9 (talk) 15:47, 17 August 2022 (UTC)


 * Agreed. Wiki generally prefers English-language sources, which are always secondary on this page, but here the relevant data is already extracted for anyone who needs and we have plenty of bilingual editors checking. GordonGlottal (talk) 16:39, 17 August 2022 (UTC)

Marking primary dates
Given that the meretz leadership elections have been noted, shouldn't there be events noting the rest of the inner party elections or at least Labor's, who also had a leadership election among its entire membership? Danido9 (talk) 16:29, 26 August 2022 (UTC)
 * I've added the Labor primary. David O. Johnson (talk) 19:38, 28 August 2022 (UTC)

Seats or percentages?
Given that some publishers release their full poll results to the election committee, which are then published in this website, should we show the Percentages for all parties in those polls, either in place of or along the seat projection of the pollster? It might be confusing or unpleasant to read but it would show the results and shifts more accurately, and would map better onto the polling graph. Danido9 (talk) 10:01, 3 September 2022 (UTC)


 * I think it could be a good idea to do both seats and percentages, like we do in other countries. Seth Korbin Cohen (talk) 13:48, 11 September 2022 (UTC)

Growing number of minor parties. "Other" Column
Recently there has been a growing number of extremely minor parties represented in polling which don't have representation in the Knesset and have never passed the threshold in any poll, these are currently:


 * FDI
 * Jewish Home
 * The New Economic Party
 * Ale Yarok
 * Tzeirim Boarim
 * Noam

I say that none of these parties deserve their own column in the polling table, as they simply crowd out the actually relevant parties. We can combine these parties and the percentages they receive into an "Others" column (as seen in many other national election polling pages) which will have a footnote attached elaborating which parties make up this percentage.

If any of these parties ever pass the threshold or become otherwise relevant, they will receive their own column and be moved outside the "Others" column but until then they should not have their own column. Gibzit (talk) 19:25, 3 September 2022 (UTC)
 * I agree. I'm not sure when the minor parties were first added. David O. Johnson (talk) 02:28, 4 September 2022 (UTC)
 * @Gibzit disagree, if they are important enough to be polled on their own and for their results to be published by the media then they are important enough to be represented on the table. It would also be inaccurate, because polls do also have an "other" option, which is rarely released to the public, and that wouldn't be included. Danido9 (talk) 17:37, 4 September 2022 (UTC)
 * Agree with @Danido9. For now we can let the pollsters decide which parties are worth breaking out; they're facing the same question but professionally and it's more in line with wiki principles. Expect pollsters to shorten their list/minor parties to drop out as E-day approaches. Long-term the switch to almost entirely online/text polling, especially in Israel/Europe, means that there's now a smaller penalty to listing many possible responses. If pollsters start reporting five 0.8% parties every time for every election, we'll have to change things up. GordonGlottal (talk) 20:57, 4 September 2022 (UTC)

Yamina-JH Merger
Why was my edit on the Yamina Jewish Home merger rejected? 168.221.161.65 (talk) 15:32, 12 September 2022 (UTC)
 * According to the ref, the agreement isn't finalized on The Jewish Home side. Maybe I was a little too hasty. David O. Johnson (talk) 16:28, 12 September 2022 (UTC)

What to call Shaked's party?
In the latest Israel Hayom poll we list Yamina as 0.9%. The source says אם איילת שקד, שנפרדה מיועז הנדל, הייתה רצה לבדה - מפלגה בראשותה הייתה זוכה ל-0.9. I'm not sure based on that how they referred to her party. Maybe just "if Shaked runs alone" or "Zionist Union but with just Shaked", probably not "Yamina" though. Are there crosstabs with question wording available somewhere? GordonGlottal (talk) 22:38, 12 September 2022 (UTC)

A solution to the overabundance of small parties
I propose putting all parties who haven't polled at least once above 1% in an "Other" column as is done similarly in pages like Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election it would look something like this


 * Good idea. I think this is preferable to the way we have it now. Jacoby531 (talk) 16:56, 3 October 2022 (UTC)
 * I would prefer the "other" column to include all parties that have never passed the 3.25% threshold. ערן117 (talk) 12:36, 4 October 2022 (UTC)
 * I disagree. Parties like the Jewish Home and Balad are notable enough to be included, not to mention itd make the page very inconsistent with older pages. Totalstgamer (talk) 13:12, 4 October 2022 (UTC)
 * I think we should only list "Balad", "Jewish Home", and "Other". All three at the end! gidonb (talk) 13:38, 4 October 2022 (UTC)
 * The criteria should be either passing the threshold in at least one poll or currently having representation in the Knesset. The only small parties who pass these criteria are the Jewish Home and Balad. --Gibzit (talk) 19:45, 5 October 2022 (UTC)
 * Economic Freedom also has representation in the Knesset, and so did FDI before Avidar resigned. 84.110.112.119 (talk) 06:19, 6 October 2022 (UTC)
 * I argued here before that we should give pollsters time cull, but that doesn't seem to have happened this time (I guess everyone is using e-selects now) so I agree with the "other" section proposed. I think Balad/JH have the strongest arguments, but I'd be okay with a standard as liberal as "passed 1% in at least one poll" which would still collapse 4 parties. Remember that a lot of this month's drama will be over who passes the threshold, so many visitors to this page will want to keep track of how close JH and Balad are. GordonGlottal (talk) 12:11, 6 October 2022 (UTC)
 * if we only want to keep JH and Balad, we could make it "passed 2% in at least one poll", at that point I'd say the threshold is well enough within reach for the parties to deserve their own column. We could also based it on the consistency of when parties are polled or not, so parties that only appear once or twice, or once every 7 polls could be excluded, as they barely add any value to the table yet take a lot of space. Danido9 (talk) 21:06, 6 October 2022 (UTC)
 * Sounds good to me. To be honest, if we have a consensus for keeping just Balad and JH right now (You/me/Gizbit/gidonb/Totalstgamer against Eran117, assuming the IP is him forgetting to log in), we can worry about the technical principle later as necessary. GordonGlottal (talk) 22:24, 6 October 2022 (UTC)
 * Can we also move Jewish Home and Balad to the end please (before Other)? This would apply to any parties that have once polled above 2% but never above 3.25% (the threshold in Israel). gidonb (talk) 01:27, 9 October 2022 (UTC)
 * No. Parties are sorted based on how many seats they won in the last election, given that JH is the inheritor of Yamina, it should remain in its place. 147.235.220.162 (talk) 07:15, 9 October 2022 (UTC)
 * The party runs under the name (הבית היהודי בראשות איילת שקד) and letters (ב) of an extraparliamentary group. gidonb (talk) 14:43, 9 October 2022 (UTC)
 * Yamina ran with the the letter ב last elections. And again Jewish Home, it inherited Yamina. Danido9 (talk) 16:10, 9 October 2022 (UTC)
 * Well, my sole purpose in this and in getting all these teeny-tiny parties out is to increase the usability for our readers. I know it is easy to say no. gidonb (talk) 16:26, 9 October 2022 (UTC)

The new layout looks absolutely miserable, and the column is meaningless. The UK example at the very beginning shows seats actually being won by a group of MPs who could be classified as "Other." In Israel, this column has a meaningless percentage at the beginning and requires a detailed listing in a box which in every other column is a simple number of seats or a percentage.

It also defeats the purpose of listing them at all, which is to see which way they trend. Here again, the overall percentage means nothing, and getting real information requires dealing with a box that cannot scroll but for some reason can re-sort the entire election. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 2A0D:6FC7:402:AADB:19DE:B3DA:76F7:7953 (talk) 18:50, 10 October 2022 (UTC)
 * The new layout is a huge improvement! The table now focuses on the bigger picture without entirely abandoning the minutia. Claims by the IP above hold no water because these little popular parties are not polled consistently anyway, so whether poOled together or not has no significance. gidonb (talk) 18:23, 14 October 2022 (UTC)
 * Agreed, thanks to all who helped. I'm actually liking it more than expected. Seeing how small the total "other" is in most polls makes it even clearer that this is the right approach. GordonGlottal (talk) 18:50, 14 October 2022 (UTC)
 * Thank you, GordonGlottal! If you are looking to do more, the next step could be to do this backward and get rid of the information overflow in all our tables and in the chart. gidonb (talk) 02:15, 15 October 2022 (UTC)
 * ... and also connect some tables. Some tables were disconnected because of these peripheral parties. Once these parties are tucked away under Others, the entrance and departure of the smallest groups no longer upset our tables. Their rows (anouncements) do less harm than their columns... gidonb (talk)

Balad's status
I was wondering if it's premature to include Balad's disqualification by the "Central Election Committee" in the table. Balad specifically was "disqualified once in 2003, and another time in 2009, only for the disqualification to be reversed by the court. This time, the court may reverse the decision for a 3rd time, or it might ban the party from running (which will have repercussions of its own, as far as opinion polling is concerned). Opinion polls themselves still include Balad, as is shown in the tables. So, in the end, I'm wondering if we should wait till the court makes a determination, before including the disqualification of Balad in the table. BasilLeaf (talk) 17:56, 3 October 2022 (UTC)
 * I absolutely think its premature, Balad's disqualification will not become important until it either impacts polling or the list of competing parties itself, neither of which has happened yet. Even when it happens, only the moment of disqualification by the supreme court will be of any significance. We should probably remove the disqualification from the table.Totalstgamer (talk) 18:23, 3 October 2022 (UTC)
 * In that case, I'll remove it. We can revisit if the Supreme Court upholds the ruling but otherwise I agree that it is not necessary. Jacoby531 (talk) 02:59, 4 October 2022 (UTC)

Exits polls
there where 4 exit pools but only one appears in the table Sokuya (talk) 22:48, 14 November 2022 (UTC)