Talk:PredictIt

Section names seem strange
The names of sections here are weirdly informal (like “How it works”) DemonDays64 (talk) 18:52, 24 February 2019 (UTC)


 * "How it works" was the only name that seemed weird, so I changed it to "Trading format". That name's a bit clunky, but nothing better sprang to mind off the top of my head. Stephen Hui (talk) 06:15, 25 October 2019 (UTC)

Stolen Money
PredictIt has stolen over $24k from some users. For more information look here: https://www.facebook.com/PredictIt-is-a-SCAM-103095328502398 — Preceding unsigned comment added by 2601:240:DB80:34B0:70E2:E15D:CD86:72EA (talk) 20:39, 24 October 2019 (UTC)

Controversy over topics on the prediction market?
I don't see anything on controversies over topics that PredictIt allows to become active on its prediction market. Yet earlier prediction markets (University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Markets (new in 1998) and the Intrade.com prediction market based in Ireland both ran afoul of public opinion on which topics in the human social experience are "okay" to have prediction markets. Intrade shut down in 2013 over it, I believe.

Has any of this happened in PredictIt's experience since 2014. Seems odd if it hasn't, unless there is some strong external restriction/regulation (or even censorship of some topics).

Either way, the way in which PredictIt—as an entity tied to a university in a nation state like New Zealand, which can bring down the hammer of law and policy if it so chooses—navigates this challenging subject within prediction markets is definitely article-worthy. It would improve the WP article if we explicated info about how these issues have or have not affected PredictIt, with sources of course.

If anyone begins to find sources on the topic, please feel free to begin to collate sources below. Cheers. N2e (talk) 16:18, 13 November 2019 (UTC)

Who own it?
The page states that the university owns it, but this bloomberg article says they only partially own it. [] Njmike (talk) 14:48, 22 October 2020 (UTC)

FBI Sting Operation or Foreign Intelligence Operation
How PredictIt works is, they target people who they believe have anti-government sentiments whom they believe are "at risk" of being terrorists, then they steal all their money in various market schemes. The higher the level you reach, the more complex the theft schemes become. Then when the user becomes frustrated, they wait for the user to say the wrong thing and accuse them of terrorism. FBI counter-terrorist agents show up at the users home and the home is searched, violating the users 4th amendment rights under the pretext of counter-terrorist operations. Wellington University is well known for its research in criminality, which is why they know that stealing user's money will trigger them into saying unsavory things. This gives the FBI a grounds to oppress political opponents, lock up their money, and put them under watch.

The alternative explanation is that it is a foreign economic espionage designed to create civil unrest by resolving markets in ways that do not align with the very specific wording of the market rules. This agitates users, as well as the fact that they lock the user's money up into an account that the user cannot access. Again, Wellington University is known for its research in Criminality, so they fully understand the psychological impacts that these actions have on their users and the incentives they give to do violence.

Either way, it is fundamentally a state sponsored terrorist operation engaged in forms of economic espionage against the people invested in the markets. The higher the "level" you reach, the more they consider you a "risk". It is possible that New Zealand Intelligence is cultivating anti-US sentiments, or that the FBI is using this market as a form of economic and financial warfare against its own people. In either situation, it is state sponsored terrorism and oppression of political dissidents.

Link to CFTC announcement is broken
Aviad.rubinstein (talk) 15:28, 23 February 2021 (UTC)

Located in the Ukraine
Their facebook page, under the transparency section(which they have no control over), reveals that they are located in the Ukraine and Czech Republic, NOT New Zealand. They want people to believe they are located in New Zealand, but this is false information which they intentionally spread for reputability reasons. This is important information which should be included in their Wikipedia page for transparency reasons. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 69.47.208.85 (talk) 21:16, 27 April 2021 (UTC)
 * I've commented on this on your talk page. Bobbychan193 (talk) 03:41, 12 May 2021 (UTC)

Remove BBB rating?
Is a BBB rating really needed? I guess it's not terribly wrong to include it, but I haven't seen any other pages cite the organization's BBB rating. Also it's odd to include this when PredictIt is (at least on paper) a nonprofit university research activity. YaBoiHBarnes (talk) 23:54, 21 September 2023 (UTC)


 * The BBB rating seems very stale.  I don't think BBB is a reliable enough source as anyone can get posted to that.
 * If there are some links to some civil suits, even small claims, I think that should be included. Wikiqrdl (talk) 08:30, 7 January 2024 (UTC)