Talk:Stock market prediction

Wiki Education Foundation-supported course assignment
This article was the subject of a Wiki Education Foundation-supported course assignment, between 4 October 2021 and 9 December 2021. Further details are available on the course page. Student editor(s): Gdaymate011.

Above undated message substituted from Template:Dashboard.wikiedu.org assignment by PrimeBOT (talk) 10:14, 17 January 2022 (UTC)

Wiki Education Foundation-supported course assignment
This article was the subject of a Wiki Education Foundation-supported course assignment, between 4 October 2021 and 9 December 2021. Further details are available on the course page. Student editor(s): Herry3999.

Above undated message substituted from Template:Dashboard.wikiedu.org assignment by PrimeBOT (talk) 10:14, 17 January 2022 (UTC)

The random walk hypothesis
This section seems weaker than the rest of the article. There is the Markov hypothesis, which, applied to a given share price, states that the expected price on a future date is equal to today's price, which would be the case in a random walk. In this case the only independent variable is time, and an influence such as the base interest rate of the UK being changed by the bank of England plays no role, even if this has a quantifiable effect. The hypothesis does not say that the interest rate can't affect the share price, but that no change of the independent variable (time) or the price itself has a future effect.

If the share price and base rate are considered together, ie a function from time to pairs of numbers, again one may or may not apply the Markov hypothesis, but even if it is applied, it does not imply the interest rate does not affect the share price.

I suppose the Markov hypothesis could apply to this function if there are speculators who manage to buy and sell adequate shares the first instant the bank's decision is announced.

Deleted the last paragraph which seems to claim that the "existence" of an industry of people making predictions shows their usefulness. For one, this is a logical fallacy + asserted withotu any reference or evidence (an in fact numerous times shown wrongP).

Validity
I have deleted this section! It said "There have been numerous academic studies on the validity of fundamental analysis, technical analysis and Artificial Neural Networks as stock market prediction methods. Some studies report success in all camps, on particular markets and with particular datasets."

I do not believe there is one academic or statistical study that has ever showed that what is described here as "technical analysis" compares statistically favorably over random chance. If there is one, it could be included with a reference. If not, the statement has to be deleted.Createangelos (talk) 00:02, 13 February 2009 (UTC)

Technological Methods
Are there any examples of recurrent neural networks in prediction? Mister Mormon (talk) 02:50, 19 November 2010 (UTC)

Wiki Education assignment: Research Process and Methodology - FA23 - Sect 202 - Thu
— Assignment last updated by HELLOEXTRACREDIT (talk) 20:51, 11 November 2023 (UTC)