Tornado outbreak of March 13–15, 2024

A significant early spring tornado outbreak occurred throughout the Midwestern and Northeastern United States, with the most significant impacts occurring in Indiana and Ohio. More than two dozen tornadoes occurred, eight of them strong to intense. National Weather Service offices issued multiple 'Particularly Dangerous Situation' tornado warnings. Strong tornadoes produced major damage in the communities of Selma and Winchester in Indiana, and Fryburg and Lakeview in Ohio. One person died in Winchester, and three people were killed in Lakeview. Other significant tornadoes caused damage in Kansas, Arkansas, and Kentucky, with scattered weak tornadoes confirmed in several other states.

In addition to tornadoes, severe weather occurred across the West and East South Central U.S. Damaging winds and large hail was reported in Oklahoma, Missouri, and parts of the Deep South. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding was reported in Tennessee and Kentucky.

Meteorological synopsis
The weather system responsible for the outbreak was evident multiple days prior, but the area that received the worst tornadoes was not expected to be the main threat. On March 9, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlighted a 15% probability area of severe weather on March 14 for areas in northeast Texas and far southeast Oklahoma, indicating numerical weather models agreed that severe weather would occur. Over the following days, model runs began to highlight favorable parameters for severe weather, mainly towards very large hail, damaging winds, and a potential for tornadoes across a corridor that expanded northeast.

On March 11, a Day 3 marginal risk was highlighted from central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas, as well as the Lower Missouri Valley. Forecasters identified deep troughing, as well as possible zonal flow, especially around southeast Kansas for March 13.

On March 12, a Day 3 slight risk was issued for the March 14 event, extending into Arkansas, central Missouri, southeastern Iowa, and western Illinois. Given moderate moisture, strong atmospheric buoyancy, and an unstable airmass ahead of convective initiation preceded by a warm front, supercells were possible, with a risk for all severe hazards. A slight risk was also issued for Day 2 around northeastern Kansas.

By 3:54 p.m. CDT on the 13th, storms began to initiate along a warm front in eastern Kansas as forecast. A shortwave trough was also noted nearby on water vapor imagery, highlighting large-scale ascent favorable for all severe hazards. At around 6:00 p.m. CDT, storms began to mature, and an EF2 tornado produced near Alta Vista, Kansas. Following the tornado in Alta Vista, another EF2 produced in Rossville, before storms began to downtrend through the night.

On March 14, a particularly favorable corridor for severe weather was placed along eastern Oklahoma, northwestern Arkansas, and southern Missouri, with intense supercells capable of tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail. The aforementioned area was given a level 3/enhanced risk for severe weather, with a 10% risk for EF2+ tornadoes situated mainly in the area within Oklahoma and Arkansas. In this area, convective available potential energy (CAPE) values reached 2,500–3,000 J/kg, favorable wind shear was present, and elongated, curved hodograph values were expected, allowing any mature supercell to rotate.

During the early morning hours of March 14, the system produced severe weather across areas of Kansas to Ohio. After the initial storms passed, the atmosphere was predicted to stabilize, as the temperature gradient throughout experienced vertical mixing. Because of this, an elongated, wide corridor that extended into Indiana and western Ohio was given a 5% risk for tornadoes, however, the Storm Prediction Center noted that if supercells were able to develop in this region, they could be long-tracked. Supercells were able to develop by the late afternoon near west Indiana and began tracking east and southeast through Ohio, prompting a tornado watch for the states.

Fryburg–Lakeview–Russells Point, Ohio
During the evening hours of March 14, a long-tracked, deadly, and destructive EF3 tornado directly impacted portions of northwest Ohio. The tornado initially formed just east of I-75 to the west of Fryburg and south of Wapakoneta in Auglaize County, at 7:29 p.m. EDT. It tracked eastward, causing weak EF0 damage to a home and outbuilding on a farm and uprooted trees before beginning a rapid strengthening trend. It uprooted trees at EF1 intensity and then snapped trees at EF2 intensity before reaching low-end EF3 strength and impacting the Glacier Hill Lakes RV Resort. The main office of the resort, multiple homes, and dozens of RVs were completely destroyed, flipped, and tossed. At least three people were injured in this area. The tornado exited the resort to the east, strewing debris across a field and leaving cycloidal marks in the dirt while continuing to snap trees at weaker, but still strong low-end EF2 intensity. The tornado further weakened to EF1 intensity as it crossed Town Line Road and began to deviate to the east-southeast as it passed the community of Geyer and crossed SR 65. Damage along this segment of the path consisted of homes suffering roof damage, outbuildings being damaged or destroyed, power poles being snapped, and trees being uprooted or snapped. As it approached Logan County, it regained EF2 intensity and passed very near Sante Fe as it moved into the county, paralleling SR 720. It caused significant damage to multiple homes, damaged or destroyed more outbuildings, and trees, and power poles. After destroying an outbuilding along Township Highway 84, the tornado reached EF3 strength again northwest of Lakeview, where large swaths of trees were uprooted and debarked. It also caused some damage to another outbuilding.

Maintaining EF3 intensity, the tornado entered the western outskirts of Lakeview. Along Poplar Court, multiple homes sustained intense damage, including one home that was completely destroyed, with its subflooring ripped off. The tornado continued into the main portions of Lakeview. Many homes were completely destroyed, with a majority of the area consisting of manufactured homes. A storage facility was partially destroyed, the local library lost its roof, and multiple businesses along Main St were severely impacted. Past the US 33/SR 235/SR 366 intersections, the tornado weakened some but remained strong at EF2 intensity as it began to parallel US 33 and SR 366 and struck a campground. It tracked directly through densely packed RVs at this location, flipping and obliterating almost every single one there. Past there, the tornado tracked through multiple neighborhoods and mobile home parks in the eastern part of Lakeview, ripping roofs off of homes, damaging businesses, and heavily damaging or destroying many mobile homes and outbuildings. Much of the peak damage along this segment was rated EF2, although one destroyed business received a low-end EF3 rating. The National Weather Service indicated that over 45% of Lakeview was damaged or destroyed by the tornado. Additionally, flooding disrupted cleanup and rescue efforts after the storm. Past Lakeview, the tornado turned eastward and moved into the northwestern part of Russells Point at low-end EF2 intensity, unroofing homes and uprooting trees in a neighborhood as it crossed SR 366. The tornado reached high-end EF2 intensity again as it crossed over a portion of Indian Lake and directly impacted the neighborhood of Orchard Island in north Russells Point. Devastation paralleled that of Lakeview, with dozens of RVs, mobile homes, and outbuildings being heavily damaged or destroyed, homes being severely damaged, and trees being snapped or uprooted, including at the Fox Island State Park. The tornado began to weaken as it crossed over another portion of Indian Lake before impacting homes in far east Russells Point. Homes near Dunns Pond were particularly devastated with damage to those homes rated EF2; the rest of the damage was rated EF1. The tornado then crossed SR 368 and exited Russells Point to the east.

The tornado then continued southeastward along SR 366 at EF1 intensity damaging homes and outbuildings. It then crossed SR 117 north of Huntsville, before flipping a truck along County Road 34 and damaging additional trees. The damage became much more sporadic as the tornado slowly weakened over rural areas east of Huntsville, damaging trees and outbuildings as it approached and crossed over both SR 274 and US 68. After further weakening to EF0 strength southwest of Walnut Grove and crossing SR 47, the tornado dissipated just after crossing SR 292 west of West Mansfield at 8:16 p.m. EDT.

The tornado was on the ground for 47 minutes, tracked 31.33 mi, and had a peak width of 1000 yd. In all, three people were killed and 27 were injured. Logan County Emergency Management Authorities issued a mass-casualty event.

Winchester, Indiana/Bradford, Ohio
This long-tracked and destructive high-end EF3 tornado first touched down south of Farmland, Indiana in Randolph County at 7:50 p.m. EDT, causing minor EF0 damage to a few homes and collapsing a barn. The tornado then moved into a cemetery where a few trees were uprooted, and a home was damaged at EF1 intensity. It then crossed SR 32 downing numerous power lines, and then started to cause ground scouring in the field across SR 32. The tornado continued east-southeast in the field causing more cycloidal ground-scouring and damaging a wind turbine blade at EF0 intensity. The tornado's eastward movement then became erratic as it made multiple sudden northward and southward turns, crossing SR 32 multiple times. A farmstead was completely destroyed with one home being pushed off its crawlspace and collapsed, although no rating was applied to this damage. An outbuilding at this farmstead was also destroyed. Approximately 40 power-poles were downed as the tornado moved along SR 32 and a roughly 3 mi swath of intense ground-scouring occurred as the tornado approached the southwestern part of Winchester.

Continuing on its erratic eastward trajectory, the tornado entered Winchester at high-end EF2 intensity. It tore through a subdivision with the worst damage localized along Englewood Drive. Dozens of poorly anchored homes sustained damage, with a few homes having their roofs torn off and exterior walls collapsed. The tornado continued east-southeast through southern Winchester, tearing the roofs off of many additional poorly-anchored homes at mid-range EF2 intensity. One home along Browne Street was reduced to its cinder-block foundation with a high-end EF2 rating being applied. The Randolph Nursing & Rehabilitation Center took a near direct hit at low-end EF2 intensity, sustaining partial roof loss with its debris being wind-rowed into a nearby field. Two vehicles at the center were thrown into this field as well. Other vehicles along this portion of the path were also moved or damaged and trees and power poles were damaged or snapped.

The tornado then quickly intensified to low-end EF3 intensity as it crossed US 27 and struck a strip mall, which sustained exterior wall collapse with cars in adjacent parking lots also being damaged and moved. Right next to the strip mall, a small, but well-built Taco Bell structure was completely destroyed, with most of the debris being swept off the foundation. A few employees here took shelter in the freezer and survived. A high-end EF3 rating with wind speeds up to 165 mph was applied to this structure. The tornado then weakened slightly, but remained at high-end EF3 intensity as it crossed East Greenville Pike and struck the Freedom Life Church, which was almost entirely flattened with only a small area of interior walls remaining. Wind speeds up to 155 mph were estimated here. A small park was also hit, with the playground being completely destroyed, and a tree being heavily stubbed and debarked.

The tornado then exited Winchester at a weaker, but still strong EF2 intensity and struck a farmstead, inflicting intense tree damage and unroofing a home. The tornado was still causing intense ground-scouring at this point, and this would continue to the Ohio state line. Many farmsteads were hit by the tornado, mainly at EF1-EF2 intensity with outbuildings being destroyed. Continuing its erratic eastward movement, the tornado passed south of the Randolph County Airport as it moved along Base Road. Three farmsteads east of the airport were completely destroyed at EF3 intensity, with their homes sustaining roof loss and exterior wall collapse. Continuing east, a few more farmsteads were struck, with one farmstead having its grain silos significantly damaged.

The tornado then turned east-southeast and crossed into Darke County, Ohio before once again continuing its erratic eastward movement. In Darke County, several homes sustained roof damage at EF1 intensity, with two people being injured in Greenville Township. The tornado then crossed into Miami County passing just north of Bradford before briefly reaching EF2 intensity again. Two homes had their roofs torn off and exterior walls removed, with outbuildings sustaining significant damage. The tornado then quickly weakened and dissipated along SR 48, north of Covington at 9:00 p.m. EDT.

A quick response team used to determine EF ratings possibly greater than EF3 was deployed to Winchester, but no EF4 damage was found by the team. In result, the tornado was rated as a high-end EF3 with winds estimated at 165 mph. It reached a peak width of 700 yd in Indiana, and 250 yd in Ohio. The tornado tracked for a total of 41.4 mi across the two states, remaining on the ground for 70 minutes. There were 40 injuries; one person died from their injuries a month later.

Non-tornadic effects
The system and the severe storms responsible for the tornado outbreak also produced widespread wind and hail damage over the Central Plains, Mississippi and Ohio valleys, and the Southeastern United States. Hailstones greater than 4.00 in in diameter fell in Ada, Oklahoma on March 14, including one hailstone with a diameter of 5.25 in. Widespread wind and hail damage was reported throughout the Kansas City metropolitan area on March 13, while widespread hail damage was reported throughout the St. Louis metropolitan area on March 14 as well. Scattered wind and hail damage occurred south of Houston, Texas on March 15.

The system also produced very heavy rainfall fell across parts of Tennessee, especially in the central part of the state, between March 14–15. Rainfall totals maxed out at 4.15 in in Leoma and 3.96 in in Hohenwald. The Nashville International Airport recorded 1.20 in of rain while nearby Joint Base Berry Field recorded 1.09 in. Two people needed to be rescued from a flooded creek in Lawrence County.

Further west, snow from the storm system on March 13 led to roads on the eastern half of Rocky Mountain National Park closed.