User:沁水湾/Electoral Reform

Wales
When Wales established its devolved assembly, it adopted the semi-proportional FPTP-AMS as its electoral system. Under FPTP-AMS, voters cast two votes. 40 members are elected using a single-winner plurality system. 20 members are elected using closed-list proportional representation, allocated regionally in 5 four-member regional constituencies. The regional members are used in a compensatory manner to correct the disproportionality of FPTP.

The flaw of such a system is self-evident. Since the Welsh Labour Party dominates single-member districts (especially in the densely populated South Wales), the elections have never produced a government enjoying a majority mandate from the electorate (except in 2007 and  2021 when Labour formed a coalition with Plaid Cymru).

The current government of Wales, a Labour minority government with the support of Plaid Cymru, has put forward an electoral reform proposal. Under the new system, voters will instead cast 1 vote for a party list. Members are elected using closed lists in 16 6-member constituencies. The lists will furthermore adopt gender quotas. The aim is to rectify the partisan disproportionality and gender gap of the AMS as it stands.

This is an admirable move on behave of the Labour Party, considering they are the biggest beneficiary of the current system (and much of their success stems from strong local candidates). The new electoral system will be more fair and proportional in terms of partisan representation. However, the flaws of 100% closed-party list PR are also obvious. Voters can't choose their local representatives, weakening the constituency bonds of members. Placing on top of the list guarantees re-election and bottom guarantees losing. This gives immense power to party bosses and makes elections even more personality centric.



One compromise is the German/New Zealand mixed-member proportional representation (MMP). If a party won more members than its party-list vote warranted (overhang mandate), more party-list members are added to the legislature to balance out the overall composition. This fixes the disproportionality of AMS and defeats "decoy lists" tactical voting (voters splitting tickets to vote for another different list-focused party to game the system). However, if the political landscape is sufficiently fractured (such as in Germany today), the legislature can be bloated to a ridiculous degree.

Another alternative is switching to Single Transferable Vote (STV). The single transferable vote system is essentially proportional/multi-winner ranked-choice. It is the system used in Ireland and the Australian Senate. STV is a very representative and democratic system, allowing somewhat proportional representation, local representation reflective of the electorate. Instead of limiting voter choice through closed lists, STV expands voter choice. The proportionality of STV elections isn't always perfect but is much better than simple FPTP. A simple hybrid of both systems would yield a truly proportional and representative legislature. Replacing the first vote of AMS with a ranked ballot, voters now cast two votes:

1. A ranked constituency ballot electing local members in multimember constituencies (5 per constituency except in Ynys Mon).

2. A part list proportional representation ballot electing regional compensatory members. Seats are calculated at large under a 5% national threshold but allocated regionally.