User:12george1/2010 Atlantic hurricane season

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season is the period in 2010 during which tropical cyclones will form in the Atlantic Ocean. The season officially started on June 1 and will end on November 30, dates which conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical systems form in the basin.

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has been extremely active, being the most active season since 2005. 2010 ties with the 1995 Atlantic hurricane season and the 1887 Atlantic hurricane season for the third most named storms (19). 2010 also ties with the 1969 Atlantic hurricane season and 1887 for the second most hurricanes (12).

The season began with Hurricane Alex, a Category 2 storm on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale, which struck the Yucatán Peninsula as a tropical storm and northeastern Mexico south of the Texas border at peak intensity. Following Alex, a series of relatively weak systems occurred into the month of July and early August. In the latter part of August and September, the season became much more active with the formation of eleven named storms in about 40 days, six of which were Cape Verde-type storms. Four of those Cape Verde storms (Danielle, Earl, Igor and Julia) each reached Category 4 intensity and a fifth in the Caribbean (Karl) also became a major hurricane. Danielle and Earl were back-to-back major hurricanes, followed by several weak tropical storms, followed by another series of three consecutive major hurricanes. From August 21 to September 26, there was not a single full day without at least one tropical cyclone active for a total of 36 days, starting with the formation of Hurricane Danielle and ending with the dissipation of Hurricane Lisa, the longest period since the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season, also tying 2005. In the month of September, eight named storms formed, which is the highest ever recorded, tying with the 2002 and 2007 seasons.

In addition, there were three occasions when three tropical cyclones were active simultaneously, with the first set being Danielle, Earl, and Fiona co-existing on August 30-August 31. The second occasion was when Earl, Fiona, and Gaston co-existed on September 1-September 2. The third and most notable was when Igor, Julia, and Karl were active September 14-September 18. During a brief period, on September 15, Igor and Julia were simultaneously Category 4 hurricanes, a very rare occurrence and the first such since 1926. Both were still hurricanes when Karl was upgraded to a hurricane on September 16, the first time since the 1998 season that there were at least three simultaneous hurricanes in the North Atlantic.

Seasonal forecasts
Philip J. Klotzbach's team at Colorado State University (formerly led by William M. Gray) defined the average number of storms per season (1950 to 2000) as 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, 2.3 major hurricanes (storms reaching at least Category 3 strength in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 96.1. NOAA defines a season as above-normal, near-normal or below-normal by a combination of the number of named storms, the number reaching hurricane strength, the number reaching major hurricane strength and the ACE index.

Pre-season forecasts
On December 9, 2009, Klotzbach's team issued their first extended-range forecast for the 2010 season, predicting average to above-average activity (11 to 16 named storms, six to eight hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher and ACE Index of 100–162), citing that the 2009–10 El Niño event is likely to dissipate by the start of the season. On April 7, 2010, Klotzbachs's team issued an updated forecast for the 2010 season, predicting above-average activity (15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher), citing the dissipating 2009–10 El Niño, the possibility of current weak to moderate La Niña and warming Atlantic sea surface temperatures as potential factors. North Carolina State University professor Lian Xie and a team of colleagues and students predicted that 2010 would see 15 to 18 named storms, with 8–11 potentially becoming hurricanes. Xie’s team predicts that 3–6 storms will make landfall in the Gulf of Mexico, with one storm making landfall at hurricane status. However, no prediction was made for the number of major hurricanes.

On May 27, 2010, NOAA released their forecast for the season, predicting an "extremely active" season (14 to 23 named storms, eight to fourteen hurricanes, and three to seven major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher). NOAA based its forecast on weaker wind shear, warmer temperatures in the region and the continuance of the "high activity era" (i.e. Atlantic multidecadal oscillation warm phase) which began in 1995. Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, added the main uncertainty in the outlook was how much above normal the 2010 season will be, and whether the high end of the predicted range is reached "depends partly on whether or not La Niña develops this summer. At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Niña to develop."

Mid-season outlooks
On June 2, 2010, Klotzbach's team issued their second updated forecast for the 2010 season, predicting 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. The university said it now believes there will be more storms than they believed earlier. The university also said the chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coast is 76 percent, compared to an average of 52 percent for the last 100 years. The chance of a major hurricane hitting the Florida peninsula and the U.S. east coast is 51 percent, compared to an average of 30 percent for the last 100 years. On June 17, the UK Met Office (UKMO) issued a forecast of an above-average season. They predicted 20 tropical storms with a 70% chance that the number would be between 13 and 27. However, they do not issue forecasts on the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes. They also predicted an ACE Index of 204 with a 70% chance that the index would be in the range 90 to 319.

On August 5, NOAA released its mid-season forecast. It was revised slightly downwards, to 14–20 named storms, 8–12 hurricanes, and 4–6 major hurricanes. The agency noted that the new estimate was revised downwards from the initial estimate since the latter included the possibility of even more early season activity. However, NOAA indicated that a La Niña event had in fact developed, and that the conditions for an active season remained in place.

June-July
In late-June, a tropical disturbance formed in the Caribbean Sea, while located approximately 100 mi east northeast of the Miskito Cays. Tracking initially W|west, Tropical Depression One was declared on June 25, the first of the season. Early the next morning, gaining sufficient organization, the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to a tropical storm, and named it Alex. Moving west and steadily strengthening, Alex gained strength and made landfall in Belize with winds of 65 mph late on June 26. Weakening briefly over the Yucatan, Alex emerged in the Bay of Campeche on June 27, where it began to strengthen once again. On June 29, after several notable drops in pressure, the Hurricane hunters found that Alex had strong enough winds to be classified a hurricane. Late on the night of June 29, Alex was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 75 mph and a minimum Central pressure of 973 mbar. This made the storm the first hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, and the first June hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Allison in 1995. Moving in an erratic way, Alex became a Category 2 hurricane in the afternoon of June 30. Shortly thereafter, Alex made landfall as a strong Category 2 storm, with winds of 110 mph and a pressure of 946 mbar. Alex was the strongest in terms of wind speeds since Hurricane Alma in 1966. The storm's abnormally low pressure of 946 mbar makes it the most intense June Atlantic hurricane, although the storm is also tied with Hurricane Audrey in 1957. Several days after the dissipation of Hurricane Alex, a new tropical depression formed in the Gulf of Mexico. Initially expected to strengthen into the second tropical storm of the 2010 season, tropical storm warnings were issued for the northeastern coast of Mexico and the southeastern coast of Texas. However, moving northwest, the storm never quite reached the intensity forecast, and Tropical Depression Two made landfall on South Padre Island, Texas with sustained winds of 35 mph. A lull in activity came across the Atlantic basin in mid July as unfavorable conditions plagued the ocean, but this lull was broken with the formation of Tropical Depression Three on July 22, while located over the southeastern Bahamas. That afternoon, the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to a tropical storm, and named it Bonnie.

That same day, governor Bobby Jindal issued a state of emergency for the state of Louisiana, in preparation of the storm's arrival. Bonnie crossed the Bahamas as a weak tropical storm, and eventually made landfall on Florida with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, and a pressure of 1007 mb, which is the typical pressure of a tropical depression. Later on July 23, Bonnie weakened over the state, and emerged into the Gulf of Mexico. Initial forecasts predicted the storm to approach hurricanes status, but on July 24, the National Hurricane Center announced that the storm had all but intensified. The remnants of the storm caused severe weather across the United States Gulf Coast on June 25, where severe thunderstorm warnings and tornado warnings were issued.

August
Yet another, shorter, break occurred in late July, before the arrival of Tropical Depression Four on August 2. Moving west-northwestward, the storm gained tropical storm intensity the next day. However, speeding into an area of high wind shear, the storm degenerated into a remnant low on the afternoon of August 3. The National Hurricane Center mentioned that regeneration was possible, however. After nearly two days had passed, the low began to organize again, in which a solid area of tropical storm-force winds encircled its center. However, without a closed and well-defined circulation, the storm could not be called a tropical storm again, yet. The system gained a closed circulation on the afternoon of August 5 again, and the reformation of Tropical Storm Colin occurred. While located approximately 60 mi south of Bermuda on the evening of August 8, Colin's final advisory was written.

Tropical Depression Five formed in the Gulf of Mexico on August 5. However, the depression was short-lived, since it quickly succumbed to high wind shear. On the following day, the depression degenerated into a remnant low. Before moving ashore in Louisiana, the remnants of the depression began to show signs of regeneration, however, redevelopment did not occur before the remnants interacted with land. The remnants of the depression looped around the Gulf Coast region and eventually re-emerged into Gulf of Mexico on August 16, off the coast of Alabama. Before moving into Louisiana for a second time, the storm again showed signs of re-organization, but failed as it again. The remnants of the storm dissipated over Mississippi on August 17. On August 19, an area of low pressure moved off the west coast of Africa. Gaining strength, this area was classified as Tropical Depression Six on August 21, near the Cape Verde Islands. The next day, the storm attained tropical storm status, and earned the name Danielle, which made it the fourth tropical storm of the season. On August 23, Danielle reached hurricane status, becoming the second of the season. Further strengthening occurred throughout the rest of the day, but the storm unexpectedly weakened to a tropical storm again on the 24th. However, several hours later, the storm reached hurricane status once again. On the morning hours of August 26, Danielle reached Category 2 hurricane status for a second time, and developed an eye. Danielle became a major hurricane on August 27, the first of the season. The storm peaked as a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 135 mph and a pressure of 942 mbar, before weakening steadily down to a Category 1 hurricane, due to an eyewall replacement cycle. Danielle became extratropical on August 30, caused by high wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures, while located southeast of Newfoundland. On September 3, Danielle was completely absorbed a larger extratropical low. Hurricane Earl formed from an area of low pressure that moved off the west coast of Africa early on August 22. Shortly after moving off the coast, a surface low began forming, and convection associated with the system began to organize. On August 24, the National Hurricane Center assessed the area with a 90% chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. On the morning of August 25, the storm was classified as Tropical Depression Seven, while located about 430 mi west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. Later in the day, the systems maximum sustained winds were estimated to have increased to near 40 mph, and thus, it was classified as a tropical storm, the fifth of the season. Attaining tropical storm status meant it got a name, and it was Earl. Forecasts from the National Hurricane Center revealed a western track was expected to occur, along with gradual strengthening. However, the storm moved into an area of dry air, which stopped intensification at 45 mph for a day and a half. Steadily strengthening once more, Earl began to develop thunderstorms over the previously exposed low level circulation. Spiral bands began forming, and Earl reached hurricane status on August 29, the third of the season. Now undergoing rapid intensification, the storm reached Category 2 hurricane status the next day, with peak winds near 100 mph. Earl passed within 35 mi of St. Martin early in the day as a strong Category 2 hurricane with winds of 110 mph.

October and November
On October 28, a tropical depression developed from an area of low pressure to the south-southeast of Bermuda. The new depression quickly intensified, and was re-classified as Tropical Storm Shary six hours later. Shary headed rapidly northwestward, and continued to intensify despite increasing wind shear and lower sea surface temperatures.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)
The table on the right shows the ACE for each storm in the season. Broadly speaking, the ACE is a measure of the power of a hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have high ACEs. ACE is calculated for only full advisories on specifically tropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 34 knots (39 mph, 63 km/h), or tropical storm strength. Accordingly, tropical depressions are not included here. The ACE also does not include subtropical storms: for example, values for Hurricane Otto do not include the advisories when it was classified as a subtropical storm. Hurricane Igor's ACE is the highest for any Atlantic storm since Hurricane Ivan in the 2004 season, as Igor was strong and long-lasting. During the season, the ACE is based on the operational advisories. Later the NHC reexamines the data, and produces a final report on each storm, which can lead to the ACE for a storm being revised either upward or downward. Until the final reports are issued, ACEs are, therefore, provisional.

Records and Notable events
The 2010 season broke several records, although none for the amount of tropical activity, the season had the third highest number of named storms since naming began in 1950, tied with 1995 and behind only 2005.

During the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, there were three sets of three tropical cyclones that were active simultaneous in the Atlantic. The first set has while Hurricane Danielle and Hurricane Earl were active on August 30, then Tropical Storm Fiona had developed on that day. Although Hurricane Danielle would transition into an extratropical storm on the following day, ending the first set of simultaneous tropical cyclones.

Both Hurricane Earl and Tropical Storm Fiona were active when Tropical Storm Gaston developed on September 1, creating the second set of triple tropical cyclones. Tropical Storm Gaston would struggle against dry air, and eventually weakened to remnant low on September 2, ending the second set of simultaneous tropical cyclones.

The last set of simultaneous tropical cyclones had began when Tropical Storm Karl developed in the western Caribbean Sea on September 14. The third and final set of simultaneous tropical cyclones was also the most notable, having the most simultaneous hurricanes since 1998, and also included the first pair of co-existing category 4 hurricanes since 1926. After Hurricane Karl made landfall on Mexico, it had rapidly weakened inland and dissipated on September 18, ending the third and final set of simultaneous tropical cyclones.

Although the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has not thus so far had the costliest or deadliest tropical cyclones, a notably high number of storm has threatened or landfall occurred in both Belize and Bermuda. Hurricane Alex, Tropical Storm Matthew, and Hurricane Richard all made landfall in Belize, the first time since 1931 that at least three tropical cyclones have made landfall in that country. Whilst there were a total of five named storm that had posed a threat to Bermuda: Tropical Storm Colin, Hurricane Danielle, Tropical Storm Fiona, Hurricane Igor and Shary; the highest since four tropical cyclone threatened the island during the 1981 Atlantic hurricane season.

Storm names
The following names are available for use on named storms that form in the North Atlantic during 2010. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2011. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2016 season. This is the same list used in the 2004 season with the exception of Colin, Fiona, Igor, and Julia, which replaced the names of the four major hurricanes that made landfall in Florida in the U.S. in 2004: Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne, respectively. Storms have been named Colin, Fiona, Igor, Julia, Paula, Richard, Shary, and Tomas for the first time this year. Unused names are marked in, and names in bold are storms that are currently active.

Season effects
This is a table of the storms in the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. This table includes the storm's names, duration, peak intensity, landfall(s), damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but are still storm-related. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical or a wave or low. All of the damage figures are in 2010 USD.