User:216.106.108.214/sandbox

Ross S. Preston is an economist (retired) living in Perth, Ontario. A recipient of the Bernard Shaubaum Prize for Excellence in Economics (Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, 1962), Preston received his B.A. degree in Economics in 1962 and Ph.D. in Economics in 1967 both from the University of Pennsylvania. He was a Research Fellow with the Economics Research Unit [ERU], Economics Department, University of Pennsylvania, from 1962 to 1965 where he developed early versions of the computerized regression and model solution algorithms used to estimate and solve the Wharton Quarterly Model [WQM] and the Brooking Institute – SSRC [Social Science Research Council] Model. As an ERU Research Fellow, Preston jointly published two papers with his dissertation adviser, Nobel Laureate L. R. Klein. In 1965 Preston joined the Economic Research Department of the IBM Corporation (located in Armonk, New York). During his tenure at IBM, Preston completed his Ph.D. dissertation which employed a full information maximum likelihood (FIML) algorithm developed by H Eisenpress and J Greenstadt    to estimate industry production functions. Preston also developed the IBM Annual Econometric Model [IBMAEM] which included a fully operational Input-Output sector containing 28 industries. In 1967 Preston joined the Planning Department of the Bethlehem Steel Corporation where he developed a fully integrated macro-econometric/input-output/steel industry forecasting model. In 1969 he joined the newly formed economic research institute WEFA Inc. [a spin-off of the ERU, wholly owned by the Trustees of the University of Pennsylvania] as Director of Industrial Research. From 1971 to 1975 Preston served as Executive Director of WEFA Inc., taught economics at the Wharton School, and lectured at Haverford College and MIT’s summer program for senior executives. While at WEFA Inc. he developed the Wharton Annual and Industry Forecasting Model [WAIFM]. WAIFM was a much improved version of the IBMAEN which included feedback to the model’s macro framework via an Input-Output tableau, a fully articulated supply side, and a mechanism to account for changing Input-Output coefficients. Many important applications were undertaken using WAIFM including regular 10 year projections of the American economy, an exercise in ‘feed back control’ which tied economic targets to the policy levers available to manage the economy [tax rates, spending, and interest rates] , a number of studies in international trade , a series of energy satellite models for the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and a number of commodity market models [for nonferrous metals]. His analysis of US economic conditions was often reported by the print and electronic media. Preston also contributed to the development of SOVMOV I, an econometric model of the USSR. In 1975 WAIFM was featured by the National Science Foundation in Mosaic. In 1976 Preston participated in the NBER [National Bureau of Economic Research] Conference on Mathematical Models held in Moscow, USSR. WAIFM was also of interest to the Economic Council of Canada [ECC] because it provided data on the American economy that was needed in the ECC model, (CANDIDE 1.0 - CANadian Disaggregated Inter-Departmental Econometric Model), it had similar structural characteristics, and it covered the same time horizon. Preston became Director of the CANDIDE Project at the Economic Council of Canada in 1976 and Senior Research Director in 1986. In 1977-1978 Preston supervised the updating and reconstruction of CANDIDE 1.3. When completed, CANDIDE 2.0 contained 715 stochastic equations and 1646 identities excluding the Input-Output system. From 1976 to 1991 he directed the research related to the economic outlook for the ECC’s flagship publication, The Annual Review. His analysis of economic conditions was often reported by the Canadian print and electronic media. Preston also developed a number of innovative projects which used CANDIDE 2.0. During 1989-1991 Preston served as the Canadian representative to the forecasting arm of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference [APEC]     winning the prize for most accurate forecast in 1990. In 1992 Preston joined Investment Canada as Vice-President of Research and Policy and in 1993 he became Director General of Research and Policy at Industry Canada. In his capacity as Director General, Preston co-authored and edited a number of important research studies. In 1995 Preston returned to the WEFA Group (later part of Global Insight) as Managing Director of its Canadian subsidiary, WEFA Canada where he continued his research and forecasting activities. During his retirement Preston authored the novel ‘Blind Man’s Bluff’.

L R Klein, R S Preston, Some New Results in the Measurement of Capacity Utilization, American Economic Review, 1967.

L R Klein and R S Preston, Stochastic Nonlinear Models, Econometrica, 1967.

U.S. economist is awarded Nobel Prize, The Globe and Mail, Toronto, October 16, 1980.

R S Preston, An Industry Study of Constant Elasticity of Substitution Class Production Functions with Special Emphasis on Capacity and Capacity Utilization, unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, University of Pennsylvania, 1967.

H Eisenpress, Note on the Computation of Full-Information Maximum-Likelihood Estimates of Coefficients of a Simultaneous System, Econometrica, April, 1962.

H Eisenpress and J Greenstadt, The Estimation of Non-Linear Economic Systems, Systems Research and Development Center, IBM Corporation, New York, New York.

H Eisenpress and J Greenstadt, The Estimation of Non-Linear Economic Systems, Systems Research and Development Center, IBM Corporation, New York, New York.

M K Evans and R S Preston, A New Way of Using Aggregate Economic Models: Industry Forecasts with Econometric Models, Proceedings of the Business and Economics Section of the American Statistical Association, August, 1969.

R S Preston - The Wharton Annual and Industry Forecasting Model, Studies in Quantitative Economics No. 7, ERU, Department of Economics, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, 1972.

R S Preston, The Wharton Long Term Model: Input-Output within the Context of a Macro Forecasting Model, International Economic Review, Vol. 16, No. 1, February, 1975.

R S Preston, “The Input-Output Sector of the Wharton Annual and Industry Forecasting Model,” in The Brookings Model: Perspective and Recent Developments, edited by Gary Fromm and Lawrence R. Klein, North-Holland, 1975, pp. 573-604.

R S Preston and L R Klein, The Solid 70’s: Scenario for the Decade, The Wharton Economic Newsletter, The Wharton School of Finance & Commerce, University of Pennsylvania, Summer, 1970 pp 19-23.

R S Preston, L R Klein, Yuen-Yun O’Brien and B W Brown – Control Theory Simulations Using the Wharton Annual and Industry Forecasting Model, Meetings of the Eastern Economic Association, 1976.

R S Preston and Y C O’Brien, Trade Impact Studies Using the Wharton Annual and Industry Forecasting Model, a Study prepared for the Bureau of International Labor Affairs, U.S. Department of Labor, January, 1976.

10 year Study Calls For Big Expansion (M J Siroka, The Philadelphia Inquirer, Philadelphia, June 19, 1970); 2 at Wharton See 1980 GNP at $1.8 Trillion (The Evening Bulletin, Philadelphia, June 19, 1970); The President Out On A Limb (S Alsop, Newsweek, March 22, 1971); GNP Expected to Double Without War, Inflation (The Evening Bulletin, Philadelphia, March 22, 1971) ; Ten Year Forecast (The Almanac, University of Pennsylvania, vol. 17, no. 4, March 31, 1971); Business junks its crystal ball (M Milletti, The Philadelphia Bulletin Editorial Page, April 14, 1971); The Role of Economics (L S. Silk, The New York Times, May 5, 1971); President’s Bombshell’ to Reverberate for Years (M Milletti, The Sunday Bulletin, January 9, 1972); Wharton Looks Ahead 9 Years and Concludes: A Better Life (F Lemming Jr., The Philadelphia Inquirer, Philadelphia, January 9, 1972); Professors at Wharton School Wax Optimistic (The Evening Bulletin, Philadelphia, January 7, 1974; How the Analysts Blew It Again (P H Binzen, The Evening Bulletin, Philadelphia, December 12, 1974); Economist Says Americans Must Learn to Consume Less (C Rayburn, The Phoenix Gazette, Phoenix, Arizona, December 13, 1974); Area Economists Praise Ford Tax Cuts (M Milletti, The Evening Bulletin, Philadelphia, January 14, 1975); Wharton Predicts (P McLaughlin, Pennsylvania Gazette, University of Pennsylvania, March 1975, pp. 27-30); Wharton: Recession Easing, But hard times are not over, Experts Say (Philadelphia Inquirer, Philadelphia, Pa., March 13, 1975); Wharton Fears ‘Crowding Out (M Milletti, The Evening Bulletin, Philadelphia, June 25, 1975); The Economy: Wharton Sees Roller-Coaster (M Milletti, The Evening Bulletin, Philadelphia, July 12, 1975); Wharton Forecast Tax Cuts Needed on Long Term (Green Bay Press-Gazette, Green Bay, Wisconsin, July 13, 1975); Full Employment Is Predicted (Burlington Free Press, Burlington, Vermont, July 14, 1975); Forecaster says it will take years to hike economy (Bloomsburg Press, Bloomsburg, Pa., July 14, 1975); Four percent jobless rate seen (The Providence Journal, Providence, R. I., July 14, 1975); Return to Full Employment Expected in Late 1970s (Martinsville Bulletin, Martinsville, Virginia, July 14, 1975); Jobless Decline Forecast, Harrisburg Patriot, Harrisburg, Pa., July 14, 1975); Economist Hopeful (Natchez Democrat, Natchez, Mississippi, July 14, 1975); ‘Full employment’ seen before 1980’ (Independent-Herald, Yuba City, California, July 14, 1975); Drop in Jobless Rate Predicted (Journal, Phillipsburg, Pa., July 14, 1975); 4-5% Jobless Rate By End Of ‘70s Seen (Register, Santa Ana, California, July 14, 1975); Economist foresees gradual drop in unemployment rate, inflation (Allentown Call, Allentown Pa., July 14, 1975); Economists Optimistic (Record-Argus, Greenville, Pa., July 14, 1975); Economist Forecasts Full Employment By The Late 70s (Republican, Kane, Pa., July 14, 1975); Economists Forecasts low jobless rate in late 70s (Tribune, Lewiston, Idaho, July 14, 1975); Unemployment Rate Expected To Be 4-5% By Late ‘70s (The Arizona Daily Star, Tucson, Arizona, July 14, 1975); Better Times Predicted (American, Somerset, Pa., July 14, 1975); 4% to 5% Jobless Rate By Late ‘70s Predicted (Times-Leader News Record, Wilkes-Barre, Pa., July 14, 1975); People and Business Ford Backs Fed Independence (New York Times, New York, N.Y., July 15, 1975); Says Jobless Rate to Fall (Journal, Corry, Pa., July 15, 1975); Wharton forecast: ’77 a good year (Focus, Philadelphia, Pa.

D W Green and C I Higgens, SOVMOD I: A macroeconometric model of the Soviet Union, Issued by Crane, Russak for the Strategic Studies Center of the Stanford Research Institute, Academic Press, 1977.

The New Delphians, Mosaic, the National Science Foundations, Washington D.C., September/October, 1975.

R S Preston - The Wharton Long Term Annual and Industry Forecasting Model: Structural Characteristics and Policy Application, NBER Conference on Mathematical Model, Moscow, USSR, June, 1976.

The Ninth Annual Review of the Economic Council of Canada (The Years to 1980, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, 1972)

R S Preston et al, CANDIDE Model 2.0, Model Description, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, October, 1979.

The Thirteenth Annual Review, The Inflation Dilemma, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, 1976. The Fourteenth Annual Review, Into the 1980s, The Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, 1977. The Fifteenth Annual Review, A Time for Reason, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, 1978. Sixteenth Annual Review, Two Cheers for the Eighties, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, 1979. The Seventeenth Annual Review, A Climate of Uncertainty, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, 1980. The Eighteenth Annual Review, Room for Manoeuvre, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, December, 1981. The Nineteenth Annual Review, Lean Times – Policies and Constraints, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, 1982. The Twentieth Annual Review, On the Mend, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, 1983. The Twenty-First Annual Review, Steering the Course, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, 1984. The Twenty-Second Annual Review, Strengthening Growth – Options and Constraints, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, 1985. The Twenty-Third Annual Review, Changing Times, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, 1986. The Twenty-Fourth Annual Review, Reaching Outward, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, 1987. The Twenty-Fifth Annual Review, Back to Basics, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, 1988. The Twenty-Sixth Annual Review, Legacies, Ottawa, Economic Council of Canada, 1989. The Twenty-Seventh Annual Review, Transitions of the Nineties, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, 1990. The Twenty-Eighth Annual Review, A Joint Venture, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, 1991.

Every oil price hike rocks consumer’s boat, The Citizen, Ottawa, September 29, 1980; A Toulin, Self-sufficiency goal by 1990 in danger, experts warn, The Spectator, Hamilton, November 1, 1980; F Harrison, Oil price shifts leave less room for budget ease, Financial Post, Toronto, November 7, 1980; J Robb, Canadian productivity hasn’t rebounded: report, The Citizen, Ottawa, December 10, 1980; B Hepburn, Major oil price hikes urged by economists, The Star, Toronto, December 10, 1980; D Crane, Put Canada to work for a better future, experts say, The Star, Toronto, December 10, 1980; J Robb, Energy pricing issue darkens economic forecast, The Citizen, Ottawa, December 10, 1980; Raise oil prices even faster Ottawa urged by advisers, The Gazette, Montreal, December 11, 1980; J Rusk, Energy is key to overcoming hard times in the ‘80s, ECC says, The Globe and Mail, Toronto, December 11, 1980; J Rusk, Economy called far worse than budget reported, The Globe and Mail, Toronto, December 11, 1980; R Anderson, ECC now gives growth ‘top priority’ status, The Globe and Mail, Toronto, December 11, 1980; L Shifrin, Everybody’s economic views are supported by somebody, The Citizen, Ottawa, December 17, 1980; Use oil revenue to spur growth – economist, The Sunday Star, Toronto, December 20, 1980; D McGillivray, Viable energy policy needed, The Citizen, Ottawa, December 24, 1980; D McGregor, “Federal Study Leads to Shakeup: Income Tax Indexing Comes Under Fire”, Financial Times of Canada, Toronto, June 15, 1981; S Riley, Bouey at anchor, Macleans’s, Toronto, May 18, 1981, pp.42-44. Edison Stewart, Canadian Press, Ottawa, October 14, 1981; Citizen Staff, Opposition urges action on economic report, The Citizen, Ottawa, October 14, 1981; T Wills, Taxes will give Ottawa budget surplus: Council, The Gazette, Montreal, October 14, 1981; M Vastel, Le CEC prédit un boom des investissement, Le Devoir, Montreal, October 14, 1981; T Walkom, ECC critical of Government’s policy on interest rates, Globe and Mail, Toronto, October 14, 1981; Citizen Staff, Opposition urges action on economic forecast, The Citizen, Ottawa, October 15, 1981; Canadian Press, ECC outlook is optimistic, Globe and Mail, Toronto, October 15, 1981; D McGillivray, Economic council earns its 31 cents, The Gazette, Montreal, October 16, 1981; D McGillvary, ECC plan beats Brand X economics, The Citizen, Ottawa, October 15, 1981; Editorial, With one voice, Globe and Mail, Toronto, October 20, 1981; A Donner, Pressure is mounting for policy change, Globe and Mail, Toronto, November 11, 1981; M Gillespie, High inflation expected until mid-‘80s, The Citizen, Ottawa, December 17, 1981; T Walkom, ECC prescribes tax changes, Cure offered ailing economy, Globe and Mail, Toronto, December 18, 1981; T Walkcom, ECC wants corporate taxes cut, personal levies raised, Globe and Mail, Toronto, December 18, 1981; R Gwyn, A light in economic tunnel, The Citizen, Ottawa, December 19, 1981; A Drache, What really went wrong inside Finance, The Financial Post, Toronto, December 19, 1981; The Nation, Business welcomes MacEachen’s ‘backtracking’, Sunday Star, Toronto, December 20, 1981; F Harrison, Economic Councils moves in where angels fear to tread, The Financial Post, Toronto, December 26, 1981; R Anderson, Hard times ahead for next five years, Globe and Mail, Toronto, January 7, 1982; T Walkom, Consumers feel like they are swimming with sharks, budget critics states, Globe and Mail, Toronto, January 7, 1982; C Lynch, Conservatives hit the jackpot, The Citizen, Ottawa, January 7, 1982; C Harherine Harris, Economic misery level poised for a decline, The Financial Post, Toronto, January 9, 1982; S Friedland, This may be the worst year since the Depression, The Citizen, Ottawa, January 15, 1982; T Walkom, Ottawa setting up plan for central economic co-ordination, Globe and Mail, Toronto, January 18, 1982; Editorial, They are everywhere, Globe and Mail, Toronto, January 18, 1982; K MacQueen, A historic debate begins, Maclean’s, Totonto, September 16, 1985; Caution lights, Maclean’s, January 9, 1989, pp 27; Dian Forrest, The Big Bank Theory, Does anybody understand the Bank of Canada? A bluffer’s guide to its mysteries, Moneywise, The Financial Post, November 1989, pp34-44; Labor: changing the guard, The Evening Telegram, St. John’s, NF, November 5, 1990; Canadian Press, Current economic policies questioned, The Mail Star, Halifax, NS, November 7, 1990; Editorial Page, Recession, recession, recession…The South-West Lance, Winnipeg, MB, November 13, 1990; Council warns of need for change, Canadian Packaging, Toronto, ON, November 15, 1990; National will wanted [re inflation], The Wig-Standard, Kingston, ON, November 17, 1990; A vision is outlined; practicalities to follow, The Daily Mercury, Guelph, ON, November 22, 1990; Our politicians let us down, again…, The Guardian, Charlottetown, PE, November 24, 1990; Arthur Donner, Federal-provincial co-operation needed to forge economic policy, The Toronto Star, Toronto, November 26, 1990; Canada needs new employment policy, The Western Producer, Saskatoon, SK, November 29, 1990; John, Raymond, Government the major villain in rising inflation, The Globe and Mail, Toronto, November 30, 1990; Steve Arnold, Few Jobs created in middle-income bracket, The Burlington Spectator, Burlington, ON, December 4, 1990; NDP seems ready to spend, The Age Dispatch, Strathroy, ON, December 5, 1990; Gayle MacDonald, Stop ‘hammering’ public with rates, The Financial Post, Toronto, ON, December 7, 1990; Janice Walls, Lowering interest rates ‘won’t solve industry problem’, Daily Commercial News, Willowdale, ON, December 10, 1990; Paying for zero inflation, The Evening Telegram, St. John’s NF, December 20, 1990; Gregory Ip, Economies cloud offers no silver lining on interest rates, The Financial Post, Toronto, ON, December 29, 1990; Larry Welsh, Federal axing called political, Globe and Mail, Toronto, March 4, 1993; David Crane, Ottawa’s inflation fight carries long-term costs, The Star, Toronto, May 17, 1992.

R S Preston - An Assessment of the Impact of the Federal Budget on the Canadian Economy, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, December, 1980.

R Preston and B Cain, Canadian crude petroleum self sufficiency in alternative domestic and international pricing environments, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, 1981.

R S Preston and B Eyford, An Essay on Revenue and Spending Elasticities, by Level of Government, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, 1981.

R S Preston - The Medium-Term Outlook, Spring 1981 Reassessment, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, May, 1981.

R S Preston - Optimal Control: An Application Using Candide Model 2.0, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, 1982.

R S Preston, An Analysis of the Major Dynamic Properties of Candide Model 2.0, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, June, 1982.

Speaking Out, in Au Courant, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, Vol 4. No. 2, 1983, pp 16-17.

Highlights from the Council’s Twenty-Second Annual Review of the economy, in Au Courant, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, Vol. 6, No. 2, 1985, pp.2-10.

Solid Economic Expansion Expected, Productivity Recovering after Growth Slowdown, Hard to Bring Down Interest Rates Alone, and Investment Recovery Likely to Slow in Near Term, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, October 17, 1985.

Speaking Out, in Au Courant, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, Vol. 6. No. 3, 1986, pp 16-17.

Speaking Out, in Au Courant, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, Vol. 7. No. 4, 1987, pp 8.

R S Preston, An Analysis of the Proposed GST, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, November, 1989.

R S Preston, Rules of Thumb for the GST, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, November, 1989.

R S Preston, Spending Cuts as an Option to the Solution of Fiscal Imbalance, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, August, 1989.

R S Preston, The Impact of the April Federal Budget, Policy Mix and Performance Targets, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, May, 1989.

R S Preston, Potential Growth, Policy Mix, the Deficit and Flexibility – A Look at the Next Ten Years, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, April, 1989.

R S Preston, H Saiyed and A Burns, The Natural Rate, Scarring, Cycles, Shocks, Persistence, and Hysteresis, Economic Council of Canada, Ottawa, WP No. 44, 1992.

R S Preston, The Canadian Economic Outlook, prepared at the request of the Canadian National Committee on Pacific Economic Cooperation for the March, 1990, Osaka Conference sponsored by the Japan Committee for the PEO and the Kansai Economic Research Center in Cooperation with the U.S. National Committee of PECC.

R S Preston, The Canadian Outlook 1990-91, the Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference (PECC).

R S Preston, The Canadian Economic Outlook 1991-92, the Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference (PECC).

Investing In Canada, A Newsletter on Canada’s Investment Climate, Investment Canada, Vol. 6, No. 2, Fall and Winter 1992, pp.10.

R S Preston and H Saiyed, International Comparisons of the Cost of Capital, Industry Canada, Research and Policy Division, Ottawa, March 24, 1995.

J M Mintz and R S Preston (editors), Capital Budgeting in the Public Sector ,John Deutsch Institute for the Study of Economic Policy, Queen’s University, Kingston, 1993.

J M Mintz and R S Preston (editors), Infrastructure and Competitiveness, The Tenth John Deutsch Roundtable on Economic Policy, The John Deutsch Institute for the Study of Economic Policy, Queen’s University, Kingston, 1993.

Ross S. Preston and Haider M. Saiyed, The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Job Creation and Economic Growth: Evidence from the WEFA Canada Macro Econometric Model, WEFA Canada, 1996.

Ross S. Preston, Blind Man’s Bluff, Vantage Press, 2007, New York, New York.