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= The Political Risk Service Group =

The Political Risk Service (PRS) group was established in 1979 and has been at the forefront of forecasting data series and quant-facilitated national and political risk analyses. The organization has a proven accuracy spanning for approximately 40 years. Basically, the most prominent investors globally always depend on the PRS group propriety products. Some of the most notable clients encompass the leading academics, transnational firms, multilateral corporations as well as central banks. The main goal of the PRS group is to clearly state the postulates of political risk and ensure that the propriety interests of the clients are addressed effectively and distinctively from that of others The accurate operation has enabled central banks and investors to patent new positions of portfolio and cruise across multiple asset classes and states. The PRS forecasts have been utilized by transnational firms to implement strategic risk management strategies, and the group’s data has also been applied in determining actual obstacle rates and sovereign analyses of risks.

= History = In 1980, Initially published as International Reports, a publication of the Financial Times of London. In 1989, PRS analyses are published by Frost and Sullivan as World Political Forecasts.In 1993,The first political risk dataset for assessing the probability of adverse government actions on aspects of international business is constructed by Professors Knack and Keefer at the IRIS Center, University of Maryland.In, 1996,Professor Campbell Harvey’s studies and subsequent dataset finds strong correlations between ICRG ratings and future equity returns in emerging markets and remarkable portfolio returns of over 20%. The study is profiled in Barron’s. In, 2000, PRS becomes one of a dozen firms, globally, to provide corruption risk data to Transparency International’s annual Perceptions Index. From 2005 to 2010,Commissioned by Geneva-based, Global Fund, PRS publishes the New Emerging Markets: the first systematic attempt at assessing the political and country risk profiles of over a dozen frontier markets.

= Services Offered by the PRS Group =

The International Country Risk Guide (ICRG)
The ICRG is an annually published seven-volume collection intended for university archives, and it is majorly aimed at offering economical access to the analysis of 140 world nations, pertaining risk assessment. This product is arguably the most authoritative, and it possess a significant predictive strength. The ICRG offers a worldwide clientele that has economic, political, as well as fiscal risk forecast and ratings for its collection of 140 patented, emerging, and future markets. The world’s most prominent transnational corporations and investors depend on the PRS group statistical analyses to obtain a section of the spread sovereign credit resultant from political risk. This also applies for nations that have no history of issuance. Handlers of portfolio and rich dealers with substantial amounts of wealth use the risk statistics and scores of ICRG to determine nation’s vulnerability as per the data obtained from the forecasts of equity market earnings .The ICRG is published on CD-ROM or printed online. Every monthly ICRG copy entails above ratings of risks covering 100 pages and involving approximately 40 countries. It offers comprehensive and in-depth investigation of events, which impact the ratings of risks in approximately 25 nations, coupled with the financial and economic statistics influencing these ratings. The CD-ROM and the online ICRG publications entail the present issue as well as the published statistics covering the past 12 months. Every ICRG digital subscriber obtains a monthly version of the worldwide political risk map, which gives them insight on the significant risk changes in the previous issue. The final ICRG data sets provide the mean risk ratings of ICRG, thus offering research personnel an easy and cheap mechanism of obtaining risk scores.

Country Data Online (CDO)
This model offers the opportunity for clients to access country information online. The CDO offers financial, economic, political as well as social statistics for above 140 nations, including historical data dating back to 1984. The CDO offers an online access to the ICRG as well as the political risk services data of the current and historical trends. The CDO offers above 80 variables, encompassing approximately 50 risk scores and national predictions.

Political Risk Services (PRS)
The group evaluates business policies, investment decisions, and the political regimes to aid in the provision of accurate forecasts. These projections are utilized to acquire valid political risk measures. The PRS system is an authentic mechanism of quantifying and forecasting national and political risk. This system offers viable forecasting probabilities for 10 nations over 5 year and 18 month periods. The accuracy of these forecasts are verified by the Fuqua Business School as well as national economic research bureau. This model evaluates and rates risks, which are likely to affect particular regimes, for instance, exchange controls and other transfer restrictions, risks facing direct investment, such as regulatory restrictions, turmoil, and barriers to exports such as tariffs. The political risk system concentrates on financial transfers, exports, as well as foreign direct investment. This model is easy to customize since clients can modify it to correspond with national exposures or individual investments by varying risk metrics, specific risks, or variable weights. The political risk model analyses reports of 100 nations every year, including regular updates.

The Artificial Intelligence Initiative of PRS
The PRS has collaborated with the Canadian Queen’s University and a host of Asian and North American scientists to investigate deep learning as well as machine applications. The major aim of this model is to interface reputable computer applications with the independently obtained risk statistics of the PRS group. This initiative has a host of findings. Firstly, the ICRG reports covering 140 nations indicate that they exhibit conspicuous bond prices and equity in a span of one year and with an accuracy of 80%. The viable national clusters were unearthed, giving formidable information regarding the pull/push aspects, which cause political risk. The organization offers information regarding the capability to innovate viable research findings and formulate advanced mitigation mechanisms. Offering the correlation between the risk factors, the initiative offers a clearer comprehension on the interplay between behavior of the quantitative and the qualitative aspects.

The Political Risk Investor
This module entails the utility of the potency of risk and its translation into reputable investment activities. The risk metrics of the PSR group are widely-utilized by the globe’s major central banks, multinational institutions as well as scholars. 20 years ago, it is estimated that the PSR’s portfolios of political risk assessment brought forwards turnovers averaging to above 20% .It is against this backdrop that the Political Risk Investor was developed and put in place. Every monthly issue of the PRI offers incredible investible strategies and actions, which are related to the company’s propriety ratings, risk predictions, and statistics. The module gives insight on the relationship between macro-drivers of the market and the political events. It elaborates on how the small political risks can have massive effects and the target asset classes. Every PRI issue contains a projective data analysis influencing inflation, economic growth, and servicing of external debts among others. Every issue also has an additional bonus, which facilitates the process of investment and tracks personal recommendations.

Analysis of satellite data
The PRS group takes part in image handling and remote identification. It also entails the charting of geographic data structures and analysis of distinct data. For instance, this module offers clients with an array of political events such as militia operations and troop gatherings through satellite images, and consequently analyze the changes in these aspects by comparing different satellite images. The integration of these imaging with the PRS group forecasts improves the risk analysis and investment decisions. These images can be utilized to assess the impact of artificial and natural disasters on investment. The image patterns are also a viable pointer of social turmoil and poverty. The images also highlight the economic development of a particular region.

The Investment Climate and Anti-Corruption (ACIC)
The PRS offers the Transparency International with risk statistics pertaining corruption. This helps Transparency International to conduct its yearly corruption perception index. In 2016, the ACIC collaborated with some of the Middle East and Asian anti-corruption corporations to improve the comprehension regarding its strategies of fighting corruption and up scaling investment climate and business activities. The PRS groups cooperate with anti-corruption agencies globally, strives to understand their programs, and participates in collaborative publications with a major aim of up-surging their corruption scores.

The Litigation Support Group
The PRS group is keen on availing to judicial organizations the political risk value destruction, as well as the approximation of the asset discount. The propriety information of the PRS group dates back to the early 1980s and has always been evaluated for accuracy and precision. The corporation’s data has continually been utilized by a section of the globe’s renowned researchers at International Monetary Fund, multinational corporations, and asset managers.

= Partnerships with other Organizations =

Transparency International
The PRS group has a history of fruitful partnership with the Transparency International (TI) based in Berlin. Annually, the PRS feeds the TI with scores of Corruption risks for above 140 world countries. The scores are weighted, standardized, and finally availed to the corruption index of TI. The corruption from both TI and PRS is utilized by global analysts from different countries.

Frontier Funds Intelligence and Media
Founded by Gavin Serkin, this corporation seeks to analyze the important investment flows by evaluating the opportunities and challenges in the emerging as well as frontier European, American, Asian, and the Middle Eastern markets .Frontier Funds offers ideas on investment through its coordination with renowned investors, researchers, broadcasters, and journalists.

Finance, Credit, and International Business (FCIB)
The main objective of the FCIB is to integrate the trade finance as well as international credit pundits to comprehend the risks related to conducting global business. In coordination with the PRS group, members can obtain political risk letter on a monthly basis to help them in making investment decisions in any part of the world. This letter provides a summary of the latest forecasts, including political and economic variations that impact global business. In this regard, the PRS group offers the FCIB with 5 year as well as 18 month predictions for export risks, transfer and investment restrictions as well as turmoil

National Association of Credit Management (NACM)
NACM provides above 15000 financial and business credit experts with the viable information and tools regarding fiscal and credit management information. In coordination with the PRS group, NACM provides audio teleconferences, webinars and online courses to improve users’ knowledge on commercial credit aspects.

= References =