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= Punctuality in Indian Railways =

Introduction
Punctuality in transportation is the ability to arrive safely at a destination according to timetable that has been advertised (Glyee) or a measurable characteristic of a particular vehicle to reach at, depart from or crossing a particular point at a predefined time (Rudnicki 1997).

In India, nearly 22,000 trains ferry around 2.5 crore people and 0.00 crore tonnes of freight everyday to their destinations. Operating on such an enormous scale using ‘not-so-modern’ setup and facing a plethora of challenges, along with maintaining punctuality and further profitability is a mammoth task in itself.

Causes of delay
Causes of train delay include but are not limited to-

1.     Path constraint -If the preceding train is late then the train following it is bound to wait behind the first train till the path is cleared or pass is given to the following train if both are using the same infrastructure.

2.     Train Breakdown- Mechanical or machinery failure in the part of train like Engine, brakes, wheels etc.

3.     Railways set up failure or maintenance-Failure in tracks, Communication systems, Signalling, Electricity lines, Bridge Collapse.

4.     Readying delay-Failure at the origin of the train to prepare it on time for its journey due to activities such as Coach and Toilets cleaning. Bed Linen replacement for Sleeping coaches and like.

5.     Overburdened existing infrastructure.

6.     Outside Factors- Poor visibility due to Fogs, Floods, Agitations and Strikes on Railway tracks, Cattles and Wild Animals on tracks, Chain pulling.

Perception of Punctuality
There is a huge difference in the perception of punctuality of trains among different countries of the world. A Railway Company from Japan-Tsukuba Railway lines-issued an apology for sending off a train early by 20 seconds. In Indian Railways, such level of punctuality is neither generally achieved nor expected even for the most premium passenger trains like Rajdhani Express and Duronto Express.

Unlike India, in Japan passes are issued to the passengers mentioning exactly by how much the train was late and it can be shown at schools and offices as an official document for the case.

Moreover, there is no clarity or a definite consensus as to what counts as punctuality for a train, i.e. there is no universally accepted standard. Different countries have different notions for punctuality and it differs even within a country.

Analysing Punctuality data
Generally when quantifying delays by saying like ‘the punctuality of 99%’, the percentages only express how many times a particular train was delayed, but it seldom gives any indication as to “late by how much”, for a delay may be of 1 minute, a ten times resulting in 90 on time arrivals or that of 10 minutes once, resulting to 99 on time arrivals, out of a total of a hundred. So, it is quite necessary to differentiate between the distributions of the two, which is often neglected.

It should be clear whether the trains that were cancelled due to various reasons (like in Coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic) were excluded from the calculations or not. The accountability for the proportion of the trains that were excluded from overall calculations is a necessity to get the true picture from the data. Recently, the Indian Railways claimed to have achieved the never-before feat of 100% punctuality, but at that time only 2% of the total trains were running due to pandemic.

A major contribution to the delays in Indian Railways in FY 2017-18 was due to routine five-year overhaul schedule for the modernisation in infrastructure and operating well beyond the capacity leading to choking in sections leading to operations at 1.5 times the maximum capacity, in some zones.

The punctuality numbers have now dipped after the Data loggers are being used since December 2017 but at the same time are now more accurate as the earlier used manual entry system was more prone to manipulation by the Loco pilots.

Arrival and Departure Data logs of the trains is connected to a Control Office Application or COA located at the terminals and this is swapped through a recently developed electronic system. Monitoring of this signal is done and the movement of the train is recorded for keeping track of punctuality.

Yearly Data Analysis
Indian Railways reportedly has over 70% schedule consistency for both Express and Passenger trains for 2019-20, which is an improvement over the previous year.

The average schedule consistency % for April to September for the FY 2019-20 for the Express trains has up scaled to 74.21% vis-à-vis 67.05% for April to September for the FY 2018-19.

Moreover, the schedule consistency % of the passenger trains for the period of April to September for the FY 2019-20 up scaled to 70.54% vis-à-vis 66.58% for April to September for the FY 2018-19.

The schedule consistency % has improved primarily due to the stringent monitoring at Division, Zone & Railway Board stages and continuous infrastructure debottlenecking in an organised way, among many other initiatives.

Improvement Areas
Improvement in the Signalling system is needed to improve the Punctuality figures, for which funds are required. Indian Railways has planned to launch the European Train Control System-2 (ETCS2) which can enable significant increase in train speeds that will help run more number of trains on the existing infrastructure, increasing the capacity of lines by 40 to 50% together with better safety and reliability and accurate punctuality data using automated signalling.

Electrification of Railways lines and replacement of the Diesel locomotives with electric ones is expected to contribute to the improvement of punctuality.

To deal with the problem of delays due to dense fogs, a Navigation system similar in concept to that used in Airplane cockpit simulations, can be developed. In this system of navigation, the outer environment with all its details can be fed into a computer, as is often done in the Pilot training simulation software and in many other modern computer games and this can be used for apparently visualising for loco pilots even in dense fog-with a visibility of barely few metres, what lies ahead of train.

According to the Ministry of Railways, Dedicated Fret Corridor shall be ready by 2020, leading to drastic improvement in the current Train Punctuality level in India.

A new software system called PAM or Punctuality Analysis & Monitoring module of Integrated Coaching Management System (ICMS) has been introduced, which automatically retrieves the delay data from the Control Office Application (COA) and provides real-time judgement of the operations. The system churns out consistent and accurate information for all management levels, be it operative or strategic.

Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) of India: Guidelines for improvement
According to CAG, lacking sufficient infrastructure at the railway stations is the primary reason for delays in trains. The ongoing activity of renovating and revamping done at Indian Railways stations is focussed primarily on providing amenities and altering the outer façade of the stations instead of  debottlenecking and removing constraints for smooth railway operations.

In a study, 15 major Indian Railways stations were reviewed by CAG and it was concluded that the stabling and washing pit lines, along with platforms have not been augmented in the past years in line with increased railway traffic at these stations.

So, the CAG of India has audited and recommended a 7 step plan to improve punctuality-

1. Preparation of an exhaustive Master plan that should take into consideration the vital parameters such as the number and lengths of the platforms, the availability of stabling and Washing Pit lines etc., at stations with high traffic to cope up with increasing load.

2. CAG said that Indian Railways should plan to expand or refurbish stations in terms of infrastructure to account for capacity increase by constructing additional platforms or stretching the existing ones, together with washing and stabling pit lines, yards remodelling etc.

3.  The Platform length should be increased to accommodate 24 coaches on all major railway stations leading to easing off of boarding and de-boarding process for passengers who are forced to do so outside the limit of the platform and further to lesser time delay.

4. Construction of Additional pit lines and platforms wherever feasible and if space is not available, auxiliary stations and terminals to be made available to relieve congestion at the already existing stations.

5. A definite time norm for removing empty rakes belonging to terminated rakes from railway platforms should be there for optimal utilisation of the available platforms.

6. Speeding up of those works that are related to infrastructure on stations that will expand the station capacity.

7. Removal of bottlenecks like Yard remodelling and Route relay interlocking should be taken on priority basis as these can help in addressing detention at outer signals and conjoining stations on the journey.