User:Addyalaska/Avalanche

Avalanches and climate change
Avalanche formation and frequency is highly affected by weather patterns and the local climate. Snowpack layers will form differently depending on whether snow is falling in very cold or very warm conditions, and very dry or very humid conditions. Thus, climate change may affect when, where, and how often avalanches occur, and may also change the type of avalanches that are occurring.

Impacts on avalanche type and frequency
Overall, a rising seasonal snow line and a decrease in the number of days with snow cover are predicted. Climate change-caused temperature increases and changes in precipitation patterns will likely differ between the different mountain regions, and the impacts of these changes on avalanches will change at different elevations. In the long term, avalanche frequency at lower elevations is expected to decline corresponding to a decrease in snow cover and depth, and a short-term increase in the number of wet avalanches are predicted.

Precipitation is expected to increase, meaning more snow or rain depending on the elevation. Higher elevations predicted to remain above the seasonal snow line will likely see an increase in avalanche activity due to the increases in precipitation during the winter season. Storm precipitation intensity is also expected to increase, which is likely to lead to more days with enough snowfall to cause the snowpack to become unstable. Moderate and high elevations may see an increase in volatile swings from one weather extreme to the other. Predictions also show an increase in the number of rain on snow events, and wet avalanche cycles occurring earlier in the spring during the remainder of this century.

Impacts on burial survival rate
The warm, wet snowpacks that are likely to increase in frequency due to climate change may also make avalanche burials more deadly. Warm snow has a higher moisture content and is therefore denser than colder snow. Denser avalanche debris decreases the ability for a buried person to respirate and the amount of time they have before they run out of oxygen. This increases the likelihood of death by asphyxia in the event of a burial. Additionally, the predicted thinner snowpacks may increase the frequency of injuries due to trauma, such as a buried skier striking a rock or tree.