User:Aervanath/How to evaluate consensus

Here's my general method for evaluating discussions:
 * 1) First, I read the discussion, trying to ignore the various bolded "support"/"oppose" votes and focus on the actual arguments.
 * 2) Once I've finished reading the discussion, I make a tentative decision based on my impression of consensus.
 * 3) Once I've got that in mind, then I go back and look at the numbers. If they reflect the same impression I've already formed, then my decision's done.
 * 4) If the numbers are close, or are weighted in the opposite direction from the impression I'd formed, then I have to re-read the discussion and determine exactly how to weight the arguments versus the numbers. This might involve outright ignoring !votes that contradict establish Wikipedia policy.  For a discussion I closed that went against the numbers, see Files_for_deletion/2009_May_18, which resulted in a delete closure, despite the numbers being 6-3 in favor of keeping the image.  I've seen even more lopsided decisions made by other administrators and bureaucrats in the past.


 * However, in my experience, most discussions close with the numbers, just because that's how WP:CONSENSUS works: one has to be able to convince other people that one's argument is valid. If you can't do so, then maybe it's not such a good argument after all, no matter how convinced you may be yourself.


 * In sum, while it would be a lie to say that numbers of !votes are meaningless, they can certainly be ignored with a good enough rationale. However, you do this at your peril: very few closes against the numbers go unprotested.