User:Akbugday/Climate change in algeria

Geography
Algeria, the largest country in Africa, shares borders with Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Mauritania, Mali, and Nigeria. These nations are situated in the Maghreb region, encompassing the desert areas of Northwest Africa along the Mediterranean Sea and Atlantic Ocean. Algeria has diverse landscapes, with the vast Sahara Desert dominating over four-fifths of its territory, particularly in the arid southern regions marked by expansive sand dunes and rocky plateaus.

To the north, the Tell Atlas Mountain range, a subset of the broader Atlas Mountains, runs parallel to the Mediterranean coast. This mountainous terrain significantly influences the country's climate and topography. The Atlas Mountains create a rain shadow effect, blocking rainfall to the Saharan desert that would otherwise be brought by westerly winds from the Atlantic and winds from the Mediterranean. Notably, about 90% of Algeria's population resides in the fertile coastal zones, which constitute around 12% of the total land area.

South of the Atlas Mountains lies the high plateaus, a predominantly fertile region known for its saltwater lakes called "chotts.”.  This region has unique wetlands that provide habitat and breeding grounds for migratory birds.

The Saharan Atlas Mountains lie to the south of the high plateaus, running parallel to the Tell Atlas Mountains. It receives significantly less water than the Tell Atlas and high plateau, due to the rain shadow effect.

Weather
An examination of climate data from 1931 to 1990 in northern Algeria suggests an anticipated temperature increase of 2º C by the year 2050. The initial impacts include a decrease in water resources, declining agricultural yields, and Increased desertification.

Algeria has two distinct climates depending on the regions. In the Northern region, Algeria experiences a Mediterranean climate while in the South, it experiences a desert climate. The North, surrounded by the Tell Atlas Mountains experiences more humid winters and more exaggerated warm and dry summers. Most of Algeria is considered the Sahara Desert, which covers majority of the country, where average winters are as low as 15°C and summers are as high as 45°C. As climate change has progressed in Algeria, there have been large dry seasons, which has caused wildfires in the Mediterranean Region of Algeria. In July 2023, terrible heat waves have exacerbated the effects of fires, and this forest fire in particular had crossed the border between Algeria and Tunisia. This caused power outages and home displacement to Algerians, and overall decimated forests.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions
While Algeria's contribution to global warming is minimal, accounting for less than 0.5% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the country is exceptionally susceptible to climate change. This vulnerability is attributed to its geographical location and climatic attributes.

Algeria's economy relies significantly on its abundant reserves of oil and natural gas. The country possesses the world's tenth-largest proven reserves of natural gas and the sixteenth-largest reserves of proven oil.

According to the Ministry of Energy and Mines, energy consumption surged from 31.6 million tons of oil in 2010 to 50.4 million in 2019. The energy sector accounts for the majority of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, constituting 74% of the total. During the period from 2016 to 2021, the hydrocarbon sector contributed 19% to the gross domestic product (GDP), comprised 93% of product exports, and represented 38% of budget revenues. However, Algeria is working towards diversifying its economy by investing in renewable technologies. Algeria currently generates a small amount of its electricity from renewable resources, at roughly 3% or 686 MW annually, including solar (448 MW), hydro (228 MW), and wind (10 MW).

Mitigation and Adaptation
Algeria ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1993 and the Kyoto Protocol in 2005. In 2015, Algeria presented its first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), intending to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 7% to 22% by 2030 through  energy transition and economic diversification. The 7% will be financed through national resources and the remaining 15% through the international financial channel. Algeria's nationally determined contributions aim to achieve a 9% reduction in electric energy consumption and strive to raise the share of renewable energy in electricity production to 22,000 MW, accounting for 27% of the total electrical generation by 2030. However, Algeria has yet to submit an updated NDC, long-term low carbon and climate resilient development strategies (LTS) and National Adaptation Plan (NAP).

Algeria has tried to expand these efforts by making agreements with Germany, China, and the U.S for foreign renewable supplies. A plan to build at least 5 solar power sites across Algeria has been made, each within the capacity of 50-300 megawatts. Some international business from Germany, China, Italy, Egypt, Spain, and the UK have started investing in land for renewable energy in Algeria. They pay for the services and land use in Algeria, which helps both parties make a profit.

To enhance its renewable energy portfolio, Algeria plans to invest in solar energy, leveraging its significant solar irradiance levels. The country has the potential to generate between 1,850 to 2,100 kilowatts per hour, operating for up to 35,000 hours annually. By 2035, Algeria aims to generate 15,000 MW of solar energy.

The 2020 Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) characterized Algeria's policy approach as insufficient to meet the 2°C goal. Algeria was ranked 48th in the CCPI, receiving a medium rating in the GHG emissions and Energy Use Categories, with very low ratings in Renewable Energy and Climate Policy.

Agriculture
A study investigating climate change's impact on durum wheat in Algeria anticipates varying declines in crop yields, from 0% to 40%, depending on the sowing date and the specific location within the central northern region. For Algiers, located in northern Algeria, the forecast suggests reduced rainfall across the year, especially during spring and summer. Conversely, Bordj Bou Arreridj, also situated in northern Algeria but farther east, is expected to see a notable increase in precipitation. Both regions are projected to experience higher rainfall in autumn. Yields in Algiers are expected to continue declining, while those in Bordj Bou Arreridj are likely to remain stable, mainly due to an earlier sowing schedule adapted to the changing climate.

Water Resources
Algeria is categorized as water-scarce, along with 17 other African countries, falling below the theoretical scarcity threshold established by the World Bank of 1000 m3 (cubic meters) per capita per year. As of 2020, the theoretical availability of water per capita per year is 430 m^3. Algeria has also been experiencing major drought events, which has greatly affected the water cycle in the region, as well as dam functionality by 25%. Many drinking supplies in Algeria have been cut off to populations and has urged government to rethink plans for water distribution.

Precipitation
Algeria, situated in a region highly susceptible to climate change, faces notable impacts, particularly in Northwestern regions. Over the twentieth century, this area has witnessed a consistent reduction in annual rainfall, coupled with a significant temperature rise. Recent IPCC reports suggest that rainfall events will become less frequent but more intense, with prolonged and common droughts. These shifts in the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation will directly impact agriculture and water resources.

Northwestern Algeria, is highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change. A 2019 study focused on the Tafna Basin in Algeria (7245 km2) to assess the effects on groundwater resources. The analysis of rainfall and runoff data revealed a significant decline in annual rainfall since the 1980s. This change led to a decrease in rainfall ranging from 8.21% to 38.85% across stations, averaging 17.85%. The study applied meteorological drought indices and Pettitt's statistical test, indicating a shift in rainfall patterns.

Using Maillet's exponential model, the study found an average increase of 45.45% in recession coefficients around 1987, signaling a faster drainage of aquifers supplying baseflow. The duration of recession shortened by 1 to 11 days (average of 6 days) after 1987. The average water volumes mobilized by aquifers dropped significantly, ranging from 11.38 to 3.62 hm^3 before and after 1987, with an average decrease of -69.06%. These findings suggest a substantial decline in groundwater resources post-1987, emphasizing the impact of climate change on water availability in the region..

Another study conducted in 2019 scrutinized temporal trends across 22 rainfall stations in northeastern Algeria from 1978 to 2010. It revealed a seasonal delay that could potentially harm cereal crops and steppe rangelands in the plateaus, impacting vegetation layering in both Atlas regions. Furthermore, the study identified a discernible pattern of decreasing precipitation from North to South and from East to West. These two studies corroborate each other's findings that northwestern Algeria receives less precipitation than northeastern Algeria.

Sea Level Rise
Algeria's coastline spans 1,626 kilometers along the Mediterranean, and with a significant portion of the population residing along these coastal areas, the nation is already experiencing the impacts of rising sea levels. Algeria's coastal region faces mounting pressures from natural factors like seismic risks and erosion, compounded by human-induced issues such as pollution and habitat loss.

A 2022 study focused on the eastern bay of Zemmouri, situated 38 miles east from Algeria's capital, Algiers, assessed both CVIPhys (physical coastal vulnerability) and CVIeco (socio-economic vulnerability). CVIPhys considered factors like coastal slope, tidal range, wave height, erosion rate, and sea level rise, while CVIeco considered aspects such as population density, cultural significance, infrastructure, land usage, and conservation status. Findings revealed that 24.58 kilometers (52%) of the coastline exhibited very high vulnerability to rising sea levels based on CVIPhys. CVIeco analysis identified 30 kilometers (36%) of the coastline as the most vulnerable areas.

Another study conducted in 2020 evaluated the western coastline of Algiers, Bou Ismail Bay located 21 miles west of Algiers, to determine its vulnerability to Sea level rise. The researchers aimed to develop Coastal Risk Index (CRI) maps, adapting the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) per the IPCC's new risk vision. The CRI aids in coastal planning by highlighting sensitive areas to erosion and submersion, as shown in Bou Ismail Bay, where 80% exhibits moderate vulnerability and 45% is highly exposed to coastal hazards. The risk mapping identifies 40% of the bay at a high-risk level, signaling the need for interventions to reduce sensitivity and bolster resilience.

Ecosystems
The decline in precipitation levels, coupled with rising temperatures and increased evaporation rates, has contributed to the desiccation of two significant wetlands, Fetzara and Halloula Lake. Eight species of birds once nested here, but have not been seen in the area, as the wetland habitat is completely gone. The majority of Algeria ecosystems consist of temperate coniferous forests, woodlands, and scrubs, but almost all other terrestrial land consists of desert and desert associated ecosystems. The coniferous forests of Algeria are found near higher altitudes in mild climate areas. In the light of climate change, deforestation has had a huge impact on coniferous forest ecosystems as well as water availability. In the plateaus of Algeria there are woodlands and steppe, which consist of predominantly brushwood and shrub. Soil erosion is a more relevant component of climate change in this instance due to the type of soil and the plants that inhabit it. There is also huge concern with waste and sludge, which affects local avian populations as well as reptiles and other native animals. The Northern Sahara lies in a steppe/woodland ecosystem, with rainy winter seasons and salty soil. Birds and reptiles are found here, and over desertification of these areas can create dead zones, in which people and animals are not able to thrive in. The Sahara itself is quite barren, but home to more mammals and fewer plant species. South Saharan steppe and xeric woodlands have rainy summer months as opposed to the North Sahara. Many grasses and herbs grow in this region, and summer rain helps sustain these species.

Impacts on People
In Algeria, 50% of non-irrigated agricultural lands are dedicated to cereal cultivation, particularly durum wheat. A decline in national meat and milk production has impacted their prices, leading to heightened demand for cereal products. Wheat serves as a primary protein source in the Algerian diet. With diminishing yields annually, Algeria's reliance on wheat imports has increased, resulting in an average yearly expenditure of $1 billion. These imports are funded by revenue generated from oil. As a result, food security in Algeria is significantly influenced by precipitation levels and oil prices.

Anemia prevails significantly due to poorly diversified diets, affecting over half of children under 5. The impact of the food crisis is particularly acute among Sahrawi refugees, who were displaced from Western Sahara in 1975 following Morocco's territorial claim, leading to an armed conflict. Among Sahrawi refugees, 30% face food insecurity, with 58% at risk of experiencing food insecurity.