User:Akbugday/Climate change in israel

Climate change in Israel
Israel, like many other countries in the Middle East and North Africa, experience adverse effects from climate change. Annual and mean temperatures are increasing in Israel, with mean temperature expected to increase between 1.6° and 1.8°C by 2100 .There is a reduction in annual precipitation and delayed winter rains. Israel is already experiencing droughts and water shortages. Heatwaves are other natural hazards expected to increase with climate change.

Climate change has exacerbated existing problems that come with living in a dry and arid region. Droughts have been more frequent and longer in recent years, which poses a risk to agriculture and water access. With the loss of agricultural land, many people are forced to move to urban areas. Urban areas, like Tel Aviv and Jerusalem are now facing overpopulation. Climate change has and will continue to have a significant impact on all areas of Israel as well as all people of Israel. Furthermore, vulnerable communities such as the Palestinians, Bedouins, women, children, the elderly, and the chronically ill will experience the brunt of the burden of climate change  .Israel contributes .05% of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). These GHG come mainly from the power and industry sectors.

Israel's emissions are predominately from gas and coal burning. Israel signed the Paris Treaty, and as a party to the global climate action it has committed to reduce its GHG by 27% below 2015 levels by reducing carbon emissions from municipal waste, transportation, and electricity sectors.

Energy Consumption
Energy in Israel is predominately from fossil fuels although Israel has begun to use more natural gas and renewables .The energy sector makes up the largest percent of total carbon emissions from Israel, at 48%. By 2030, Israel wants to reduce its energy consumption emissions by 30% by using less coal and switching to more natural gas while increasing the use of renewables. In 2018, electricity

Transportation
After energy consumption, transportation is the second largest emitter of carbon at 22%. To decrease these emissions, Israel plans to have clean energy municipal buses and limiting new car emissions. To reduce car and truck emissions, Israel is going to ban gas cars from being imported.

Air Quality
Due to substantial growth in vehicle use and emissions from coal- and oil-fired power plants, the presence of Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) and Sulfur Oxides (SOx) in the air near Israel's major urban centers have increased significantly between 1980 and 2002. Nitrogen oxides doubled during these years. Also, CO2 increased by 190% and incidents of respiratory illness among children increased from 5% to 17%. Although greenhouse gas emissions have steadily risen from 1996 to 2007, as of 2010, concentrations of Nitrogen oxides and other pollutants have decreased around major traffic sites. Additionally, falling Sulfur oxide levels have been observed and attributed to more efficient fuel use in industrial power plants. However, despite the benefits greener technology in lowering per-capita emissions, rapid population growth and increased per-capita consumption have led to an overall decrease in air quality. The decrease in air quality is expected to only get worse without proper policy measures to reduce pollutants. )

Temperature and weather changes
Increased heatwaves are caused by increased global temperatures from climate change. By the end of the 21st century, heatwaves in Israel will last three times longer and happen seven times more often. The Israel Meteorological Service has noted "a significant warming trend in all regions of the country". People located in the coast, lowlands, Northern Negev, and mountain region are susceptible to higher rates of warming than other regions in Israel. Each heatwave in Israel leads to 45 deaths on average. By the end of the 21st century, heatwaves may result in about 330 deaths each summer. In June 2023, 300,000 people in Israel were left without electricity in the middle of a heatwave, which showed that the country is not prepared for the impacts of climate change. To cope with the changing world, "interdisciplinary regional collaborations are required to develop adequate public health adaptation to extreme weather events in a changing climate."

Precipitation
Israel is expected to experience a 10% reduction in overall rainfall by the end of the 21st century due to climate change. This change will result in water scarcity that is coupled with increased salinity. As a result of this change, the flow of the Jordan River will decrease by 22%. Currently Israel does not experience a significant difference in precipitation, but they do however experience a difference in distribution, frequency, and intensity of rain events such as an increase in rainfall in some regions and a decrease in others. Since 2000, there are less rainy days, but the rains are more intense. Long dry periods in the winter, extreme rain events with cold weather can negatively impact agriculture and natural ecosystems. These extreme weather events will result in both droughts and flooding, which is especially a danger in urbanized settings. The change in rainfall can be serious considering Israel's already arid climate.

Sea level rise
The increase in rainfall will cause rising sea levels along the Mediterranean basin. The rising sea "will ultimately affect all of Israel's coasts, from Rosh Hanikra to the border of the Gaza Strip," potentially leading to saltwater infiltration of aquifer groundwater and degrading coastal cliffs. Saltwater infiltration will affect agriculture through damaged crops which is a large source of revenue for Israel. As of right now, the approximate rate of sea level rise is 0.4-0.5 cm per year. "By 2150, the rise in the sea level in Israel is expected to be approximately 5 meters." Israel's long coastline will require infrastructure such as "residences, hotels, heritage sites, factories" and other major projects to be moved. Due to climate change, the sea will also become warmer and more acidic which has the potential to decrease the biodiversity of aquatic species.

Water resources
Due to the predictions of decreases in precipitation and increases in temperature, the IPCC "general circulation models projections agree on drying scenarios in the region by the end of the 21st century." Since Israel is located in an arid/semi-arid region, any changes to precipitation in the region will ultimately severely affect water resources. For agriculture, Israel depends heavily on irrigation and water availability. The decrease in water availability can be seen in the decrease in incoming freshwater into the Sea of Galilee. Any change in freshwater will also result in a change in salinity of the water. Israel's main source of water is the upper Jordan River. A decease in spring flow and streamflow of the Jordan River has already been documented. Overall, stream flows in the region have been documented as decreasing at a faster rate than rainfall measurements. These data indicate that evaporation is affecting the Jordan River more than a decrease rainfall.

Ecosystems
Rising temperatures due to climate change are severely impacting habitats especially those located in coastal regions. Coastal regions are also experiencing an increase of invasive species entering the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal. Dozens of species that are from more tropical environments are able to migrate to Israel's waters with the rising ocean temperatures. As a result of these changes in the ecosystems, Israel is working to protect its 118 mile coastline and ensure protection of biodiversity as well as keeping existing habitats safe from human interference. The Rosh Hanikra Marine Reserve has documented the survival of key species as a result of just a few years of protection through conservation. Since 2019, Israel has increased its coastline protection from 0.3% to 4% protected areas. Since then, another 4.5% will be protected in the coming years. These levels of protection are not in line with the 2020 target of 10% protected coastline. In terms of land, 24% of Israel is considered nature reserves. The establishment of protected areas is becoming increasingly difficult with the influx of the population.

A source of hope for the ecosystems of Israel can be seen through a study that simulated climate change projections on native Israeli plants. In the study, a multi-year induced drought did not show to have a significant or detrimental affect on the semi-arid/Mediterranean plants tested. While the study only tested plants from two major ecosystem types, it challenges claims that climate change will have serious negative effects on all ecosystems of Israel.

Impacts on People
Climate change has lead to adverse impacts on the economy, agriculture, population health, and stability in Israel. Climate change in Israel has disproportionate effects on vulnerable populations, such as women, children, the elderly, immigrants and marginalized communities. In particular, populations living in the West Bank, Gaza, and Negev desert are more susceptible to the effects of climate change and mitigation efforts. Some have labelled this phenomenon in Israel as environmental apartheid whereby Palestinian resources have been exploited for use by Israelis while experiencing unequal effects of environmental degradation.

History and Context
After World War II, Palestine experienced a large influx of Jewish immigrants. In 1947, the United Nations devised a partition plan of Palestine that would create two separate Jewish and Arab states. In 1948, Israel was declared independence after British forces had left. Israel's declaration of independence was not received well by Palestinians or by surrounding Arab countries. Ever since, the region has been riddled with war and conflict between Israel and nearby nations. On October 7th 2023, Hamas, a Palestinian militia group, broke out of Gaza and attacked a music festival and took hostages. Since then, Israel has retaliated using extreme force and has nearly wiped out Gaza with a death toll of 15,000 Palestinians and 1,200 Israelis. The tragedy has worsened water, electricity, and food access in Gaza leading to influx of Palestinian refugees migrating Egypt, who is currently struggling to provide aid.

Palestine
Palestinian territories include the Gaza Strip on the coast of the Mediterranean and the West Bank which is bound by the Jordan River emptying into the Dead Sea. Since the beginning of the 20th century, Palestinian land has diminished as well as their water supply and natural resources. The Gaza Strip, a very urbanized area, has a population of 2.3 million people in approximately 360 km². However, due to the density of the population and ongoing Israeli occupation, potable water resources in Gaza have exponentially depleted on account of seawater and sewage contamination. Furthermore, Israel's control over a large portion of water resources has drastically reduced water access in Palestinian neighborhoods and limits the ability to build new water infrastructure such as sewage treatment. Access to potable water impacts agriculture and population hygiene and health. Moreover, the Israeli government has uprooted and burned just under 100,000 olive trees due to increasing settlements in the West Bank. Olive trees are a drought resistant tree native to the Mediterranean and central to Palestinian identity and livelihood. Due to the 2023 Israel-Gaza war, Palestinians don't have access to their olive groves.

Health
Climate change directly affects vulnerable populations such as women, children, the elderly, and the chronically ill. Increasing heat waves, decreasing rainfall, worsening air quality, lack of access to drinking water, food, and electricity disproportionately affects these populations. Populations who suffer from chronic disorders are more susceptible to health issues related to poor air quality, high temperatures, and water-borne illnesses. Extreme heat caused by climate change can also be dangerous for pregnant women and affect child development in the womb. Migrants, refugees, Palestinians, and Bedouins who are not connected to the electricity grid may not be able to afford air conditioners or have access to healthcare facilities.

Economic impacts
Israel's agricultural sector will be severely affected by decreased precipitation, soil erosion, and soil salination in the region, which will lead to food scarcity in many communities. Due to sea warming leading to higher concentrations of salt, has adversely impacted the fishing industry. Climate change will decrease supply of food, therefore increasing the price, making food insecurity a real possibility.

Tourism Covid 19

Agriculture makes up X% of Israel's GDP, however due to climate change, the GDP is projected to decrease by X%.

https://www.mdpi.com/2673-4834/3/1/21

Mitigation
Despite Israel having low overall all emissions in comparison to other countries, Israel must either mitigate the effects of climate change or adapt. According to the INDS (Intended Nationally Determined Contribution) of Israel, the main mitigation target is to reduce per capita greenhouse gas emissions to 8.8 tCO2e by 2025 and to 7.7 tCO2e by 2030. Total emissions should equal 81.65 MtCO2e in 2030. If no mitigation efforts are implemented, the emissions would reach 105.5 MtCO2e by 2030 or 10.0 tCO2e per capita. To reach the target, the government of Israel wants to reduce the consumption of electricity by 17%, produce 17% of electricity from renewables, and shift 20% of transportation from cars to public transport by 2030. In Israel's latest report on GHG emissions in 2023, emissions were measured at 77.415 MtCO2e. These levels are a 35% increase from the emissions from 1996. However, due to mitigation tactics, they are a 1.5% decrease from the levels in 2015. The report also concluded that fuel combustion and energy industry are the largest source of emissions.

Israel's use of renewable energy will mitigate the effects of climate change or to develop resiliency in a country’s energy systems. In Israel, policymakers tend to prioritize renewable energy more for a strategy for mitigation rather than a means for adaptation. In August 2021, Karine Elharrar, the minister of energy stopped giving new licenses for oil searching on land in Israel. Later, in December 2021, Elharrar stopped the issuing of new licences for gas searching offshore at least for one year. According to Elharrar priority will be given to renewable energy and fighting climate change. Overall, Isreal's prioritization of mitigation and efforts to minimize the effects of climate change have proven less effective than the adaptive efforts of the EU and other countries.

On October 2020, the Israeli government set a goal for 2030 to have 30% of their energy generated from renewables. This goal would cut their emission levels from 2015 by 85%. However, in 2021, Israel only generated 8% of their energy from renewable sources. Under Israel's commitment to the Paris Agreement and the United Nations Framework Convention their goal is to attain zero emissions by 2050. To reach the 2030 target, various ministries within the Israeli government are working with local governments to promote the use and investment in cleaner transportation. In terms of physical developments toward these goals, the Eilat-Eilot Renewable Energy Initiative has created a renewable energy hub located in the southern Arava region of Israel. Israel also established a committee with the goal of evaluating the country's potential to reduce emissions by the year 2030. Their findings have confirmed that Israel's power sector generates approximately half of the country's total GHG emissions. The second largest offender is the transport sector, which produces approximately 19% of total emissions.

In the years 2023-2028, a carbon tax in Israel will be introduced in the form of carbon pricing. This plan will put a tax on 80% of emissions. This piece of legislation alone should reduce emissions by 67% by 2050.

Policies and legislation
2018 July 29, 2018. "The Cabinet approved the program in Decision No. 4079 - Israel's Preparedness to Adapt to Climate Change: Implementing Recommendations for a Strategy and a National Action Plan. " https://www.gov.il/en/departments/guides/climate_change_adaptation#:~:text=Approval%20of%20the%20plan%20followed,%25%20below%20the%202005%20level.) 5 priorities according to this plan?

In May 2022, the government approved a climate law. The law will include an adaptation plan, considering climate risks before approving projects, creation of advisory and controlling comities, duty of reporting information about climate risks and emissions. The advisory comity will include: "a representative of the Manufacturers Association of Israel, a representative of environmental organizations and representatives of the younger generation."

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Eitan, A. (2021). Promoting renewable energy to cope with climate change—policy discourse in Israel. Sustainability, 13(6), 3170.

https://www.mevaker.gov.il/sites/DigitalLibrary/Documents/2021/Climate/2021-Climate-Abstracts-EN.pdf?AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1

Society and Culture
https://en.idi.org.il/articles/33054

(Vulnerability/ EJ? differentiated impacts? Not necessary but we'll decide at the end)