User:Alanrodrigo.rio~enwiki/Comperj

COMPERJ is an approximately US$8.4 billion investment to be made up of a 1st generation petrochemical refinery and an integrated 2nd generation group of production units. The 1st generation refining unit, called the Basic Petrochemical Unit – UPB, will refine up to 150 thousand barrels of heavy petroleum produced in the Campos Basin (Marlim field) and will produce ethylene, benzene, p-xylene, e propane. Some 40% of the UPB production will be commercialized at first hand, including to the overseas market. The 2nd generation units, called Associated Petrochemical Units – UPAs, are planned to transform part of the petrochemical raw materials into thermoplastic resins. The construction of an Utility Center – UTIL, is also planned and will be responsible for the supply of the water, steam and electric energy required for the COMPERJ operation. The COMPERJ production plant will be set up in the Itaborai (UPB and UPAs) and São Gonçalo (Distribution Center for Liquid Products – CEPL) municipalities, both of which are located in the metropolitan region of the state of Rio de Janeiro. Petrobras data indicates an 8 year horizon for the construction phase and points to 2015 as being the operational start-up year. With regard to the operational phase the Petrobras expectation is that COMPERJ will generate annual revenues to the order of US$5.8 billion, arising from sales of products manufactured by both the Basic Petrochemical Unit (62%) and the Associated Petrochemical Units (38%). The principal thermoplastic resins to be produced by the UPAs will be polypropylene (850,000 tons/year), polyethylene (800,000 tons/year), polyethylene terephthalate (800,000 tons/year). Businesses that may be attracted cover a wide range, notably including industries that will consume the thermoplastic resins produced by the UPAs, intermediary consumer industries for plastic materials, support industries for COMPERJ, downstream industries within the productive chain and finally those activities associated with the income-effect (salaries, profits, tax revenues etc.) generated by the aforementioned industries. Using the Petrobras information this study has considered two scenarios for the directing of the thermoplastic resins production to Rio de Janeiro: a conservative scenario that forecasts that 300,000 tons/year will be consumed by the industries in the state and that this will represent 13% of the capacity of the total production. The second scenario, considered optimistic, forecasts a 600,000 tons/year consumption of thermoplastic resins, representing 27% of the forecast capacity of total production. Using these scenarios as starting points, together with statistical data obtained from ABIPLAST and field research conducted amongst the sector’s 24 industries located in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, it was possible to make estimates for the start-up in Rio de Janeiro of plastic materials production industries, the geographical distribution of the new investments and the economic impacts, both in terms of added value and job creation. The conservative scenario estimates indicate potential for 362 plastic industry start-ups in the state of Rio de Janeiro, the creation of some 15 thousand new jobs, investments to the order of R$900 million and revenues of near to R$2.4 billion. The estimates arising from the optimistic scenario produce double the numbers with 724 start-ups, 31 thousand new jobs and annual revenues of R$4.8 billion. In both scenarios the forecasts suggest that over 90% of the new businesses will be micro or small companies. Geographical distribution scenarios were also constructed based on the grouping of municipalities in two distinct regions and the application of a proprietary scenario model. The so-called Sphere of Immediate Influence encompasses 7 municipalities (Cachoeira de Macacú, Guapimirim, Itaboraí, Magé, Rio Bonito, São Gonçalo and Tanguá). The Sphere of Extended Influence is made up of the same seven municipalities plus those of Casimiro de Abreu, Duque de Caxias, Maricá, Niterói, Nova Friburgo, Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro, Saquarema, Silva Jardim, Teresópolis, Belford Roxo, Mesquita, Nilópolis, Nova Iguaçu, Queimados and São João de Meriti.1 The model used to produce the geographical distribution looks at the variable factors that will be taken into account when localization decisions are made, and these include: (i) available infrastructure in each municipality, measured in logistical supply and distribution categories (transport costs and integration with the Metropolitan Ring Road System), the availability of electric energy and telecommunications; 1 See map on Page 15 Nº1 | May 2008 4 COMPERJ POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCTIVE DEVELOPMENT (ii) available natural and human resources (vacant sites, environmental restrictions and availability of labor – measurements based on the educational standards and industrial culture of each municipality. And (iii) the strategic importance of COMPERJ for each municipality. The results produced by the model point to 46% of the new industries in the plastics sector installing themselves in the Sphere of Immediate Influence, and also indicate the high potential for concentrations in Duque de Caxias (13.5%), Nova Iguaçu (9.0%) and Queimados (8.8%), all of which are included in the Sphere of Extended Influence. The study further presents estimates of the economic impacts that will arise during the installation phase and after the start up of COMPERJ and the plastics industries. Calculations show that during the installation phase an average annual amount of added value to the tune of R$ 6.1 billion will accrue to Brazil, with strong concentration occurring during the three years 2010-2012. The state of Rio de Janeiro will answer for some 44% of this total. Once the operating phase is underway, and taking as an example a standard year of full activity, the conservative scenario produces an estimated amount of added value to the order of R$11.6 billion accruing to Brazil, with 84% of this amount being produced in the state of Rio de Janeiro, with 54% coming from the Sphere of Extended Influence and with 42% from the Sphere of Immediate Influence. The optimistic scenario for the installation of the plastic industries foresees an added value amount of some R$13 billion, with share percentages practically the same as in the former scenario. If these estimates are achieved they could represent in 2015 the equivalent of 37% of the GDP of the Sphere of Immediate Influence, under the conservative scenario, increasing to 39% in the optimistic scenario. The elaboration of a similar modeling exercise to calculate the number of job opportunities (stock of jobs) supported by the yearly production, and considering direct and indirect employment and employment arising from the income-effect show similarly striking results. The model indicates that during the installation phase the high point in job creation will occur in 2011 when the COMPERJ civil construction work will be finalized. In that year 173 thousand jobs will be generated, including 75 thousand in the state of Rio de Janeiro, 65 thousand in the Sphere of Immediate Influence and 22 thousand in the Region of Extended Influence. The conservative scenario forecast that after 2015, in a standard year, the plastics industries installed in the state of Rio de Janeiro will create more than 117 thousand jobs, of which 41 thousand in the Sphere of Immediate Influence. The optimistic scenario forecasts the creation of some 168 thousand jobs, of which 63 thousand in the Sphere of Immediate Influence. It should be noted that between 2012 and 2014, in spite of the installation of the plastic products industries, there will be a significant reduction in available jobs as by then COMPERJ civil construction works will be in their final stages. The magnitude of the impact described above together with the significant variations in the two scenarios show how important it is to weigh up, in advance, the initiatives required to maximize the attractions to be made available by the state of Rio de Janeiro to the plastic industries. It is a fact that the difference between realizing one or the other of the two scenarios could signify, or not, the creation and maintenance of some 50 thousand additional job vacancies within the Sphere of Extended Influence. The attainment of one or the other of the two scenarios will certainly depend on the proposed initiatives designed to support the competitive ability of the state of Rio de Janeiro to attract investment. On the other hand it is worth noting that regardless of which of the two scenarios is attained the volume of job opportunities that will be created, and then eliminated, will require a series of actions that should and must be taken by public and private entities. The report presents a series of recommendations, grouped together under the theme of “attractivity factors” (shortening the productive chain, infrastructure and incentives), employment and urban occupation, professionalized labor training, entrepreneurship; and industrial decentralization. When dealing with the attractivity factor it is essential to understand that the greatest challenge to the strategic positioning of the municipalities and the state of Rio de Janeiro refers to the competition with other states in the securing of investment resources. The state of Rio de Janeiro must therefore emphasize the relevance of local industrial demand for plastic products. Without doubt there is a need for the formulation of coordinated strategies to be developed by the state and municipal governments and supporting entities, with a view to shortening the productive chain and to paying special attention to those sectors that consume plastic products. These strategies will undoubtedly have to include a forecast of the investment in usability improvements to the state’s logistical infrastructure, an expansion in the incentive mechanisms, be they financial (tax or credit) or non-financial as, for example, increased information to investors, support for the completion of viability projects and the provision of specific infrastructure needs. When the municipalities consider the matters of employment, urban occupation and professionalized labor training an important concern will immediately arise, referring to the increase in the demand for public services resulting from the Nº1 | May 2008 5 COMPERJ POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCTIVE DEVELOPMENT population shift that will be caused by COMPERJ and the installation of industries close to their source of raw material. Under discussion, within this framework, is whether the migration of formally employed people will be required, or not, so as to meet the COMPERJ investments and those of the industries in the productive chain. The Conservative Scenario indicates that the demand estimates for labor and population growth in the Sphere of Immediate Influence for a normal year (post 2015) will not require a migratory influx, as locally available labor, provided it is properly qualified, is sufficient to satisfy the demand. On the other hand the Optimistic Scenario will demand a migratory influx as the jobs on offer in that region, measured in terms of the economically active population (PEA), will exceed the stock of unemployed people. However this matter should not be confused with that of a population shift caused by the inducement of the promise of economic growth based on an unfounded real prospect of job creation. In other words a migration caused by the “export” of the unemployed, either because of the illusory perception of opportunities, or because of the attraction that the real income increase in the region will exercise over an army of underemployed or informally employed people. To exemplify the size of the problem: if 20% of the unemployed in other municipalities within the Sphere of Extended Influence were to migrate to the Sphere of Immediate Influence in the search for job opportunities that do not come about then this shift would imply a 9% population increase in the latter region, and would double the respective municipalities’ rate of unemployment, with potentially grave repercussions for the local population’s quality of life. Within this context, but without detriment to the support for the expansion in public services needed to meet this phenomenon, it is essential that municipal town halls structure themselves to plan, organize and supervise urban occupation. This movement must be linked to the twin objectives of both preventing the destruction of the urban fabric and providing suitable conditions for the adequate settlement of the labor hired by the industries. It is also clear that there is a need to extend policies for the professionalization of local labor. The preceding considerations and the results of the study call attention to the need to encourage, as of now, business development in the municipalities of the Sphere of Extended Influence. It is clear that the productive development that will be instigated by COMPERJ will not only be restricted to the start up of industries in the plastics sector. There is an outstanding likelihood of stimuli, provoked by COMPERJ itself, by the downstream industries and by a wide range of businesses offering support services during the installation phase and once operations have started up, as already discussed above. On the other hand productive development associated with the income-effect signposts to the creation of opportunities in the 3rd sector (commerce and services), as well as in the civil construction industry, and further provides important consolidating instruments whereby those municipalities that are competitive will be able to take advantage of the COMPERJ knock-on effect, even though the resulting jobs may not necessarily be industrial. The development of IT programs (technical, financial, marketing, etc.) and the creation of credit instruments will be relevant strategies in giving a push to the above situation and contributing to its continuity. And, further to the latter, microcredit programs could well have a relevant positive contribution to make, and so collective action by all levels of government, business associations and financial institutions are vital requisites for local development. Finally, the scenario building relating to geographical distribution makes clear the existing potential so that the investments made in the COMPERJ sphere of influence should not be concentrated in only a few municipalities or exclusively in its Sphere of Immediate Influence. This implies that even municipalities that receive only a relatively minor share of the investment in production expansion or in new industries may well receive powerful impacts to their economies, and they should be prepared for such effects. The municipalities of Tanguá, Guapimirim, Silva Jardim and Casimiro de Abreu are all examples of the results of this influence, as the result of investments made in these municipalities in the wake of the COMPERJ effect on the GNP may well reach, in 2015, respective proportions of 35%, 29%, 26.5%, and 15%. The importance of the need to formulate and give priority to overall support strategies becomes clear, rather than those that focus only on the Sphere of Immediate Influence, yet without detriment to initiatives required to meet the specific needs of certain municipalities, and the making possible of the maximum allocation of benefits that will accrue.