User:Annette Maon/Don't loop up

The really scary part about "Don't look up" is not the plant killer asteroid. Everyone knows that the likelihood of such a comet hitting Earth is extremely small. The planet killer is an obvious metaphor for more serious threats like climate change. The reviews and interviews spell this out explicitly for those not smart enough to see it on their own. The movie is a satire which uses an unlikely fictional crisis to criticize the media and the masses that listen to it and direct its focus with feedback and ratings. There is no need to actually watch the whole movie to get the point - The trailer says it all in a 15 second soundbite:

"Leonardo DiCaprio: We've discovered a very large comet. President: Oh, good for you. Jennifer Lawrence: It's headed directly towards Earth. Planetary Defense Agent: This comet is what we call a Planet killer. President: At this exact moment I say, we sit tight and assess."

Nobody wants to listen to the scientists who are trying to warn us about the end of the world and even those who hear what they say do not believe them. The scary part is not the fictional response to the fictional planet killer, it is the real critical response to the premise of the movie as seen in the trailer. None of the reviews or critics seem to mention or even realize that the two naive and incompetent scientists portrayed by DiCaprio and Lawrence really should not be believable and that "sit tight and assess" is the correct response.

Real astronomers that track these potential threats know that calculations on white boards can be used to rule out a collision but not to predict one. In the first week after discovery of a new comet or asteroid the orbit determination is not accurate enough to distinguish a collision from a near miss. The correct course of action is to publicize the approximate orbital elements to the astronomer community and wait several weeks for more data from a longer arc of observations. Anyone naive enough to believe that the initial orbital elements of a potential near miss would (or could) be classified by the government would not be allowed near the oval office unless it was through some political connection. If they then said that there is a 100% probability that a newly discovered comet will hit Earth in six months - that statement in itself would expose them as a fraud. Orbit determination for spacecraft with two way transponders can not achieve the accuracy required to make such a statement, saying it about a passive comet with an unknown albedo and rotation rate is a joke and should be treated accordingly.

Anyone representing the Planetary Defense Coordination Office at the white house should know that. It is not obvious whether professional actors like DiCaprio and Lawrence would be able to tell the difference but Astronomer Amy Mainzer who "played a major role in helping sculpt the film's dialogue and characters, including astronomer Randall Mindy" should presumably know as well. Did she play a joke on all of them as well as the unsuspecting media? Or is the satire even more poignant than most of the viewers and critics realized?