User:Arms & Hearts/kucinich

Elections were held on November 2, 2010 to determine Indiana's nine members of the United States House of Representatives. Representatives were elected for two-year terms to serve in the 112th Congress from January 3, 2011 until January 3, 2013. Primary elections were held on May 4, 2010.

Of the nine elections, the races in the 2nd, 8th and 9th districts were rated as competitive by The Cook Political Report, CQ Politics, The Rothenberg Political Report, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Five of Indiana's eight incumbents were re-elected, while two (Steve Buyer of the 4th district and Brad Ellsworth of the 8th district) did not seek re-election and one (Baron Hill of the 9th district) unsuccessfully sought re-election. Prior to the election the 3rd district was vacant due to the resignation of Mark Souder.

In total, six Republicans and three Democrats were elected. In the November elections a total of 1,744,481 votes were cast, of which 952,116 (54 percent) were for Republican candidates, 697,775 (39 percent) were for Democratic candidates, 84,289 (5 percent) were for Libertarian Party candidates, 11,218 (0.6 percent) were for an independent candidate, and 80 (0.004 percent) were for write-in candidates.

District 1


The 1st district included East Chicago, Gary, Hammond, Merrillville, Portage, Schererville and part of Valparaiso. The district's population was 67 percent white, 18 percent black and 12 percent Hispanic (see Race and ethnicity in the United States Census); 87 percent were high school graduates and 20 percent had received a bachelor's degree or higher. Its median income was $52,203. In the 2008 presidential election the district gave 62 percent of its vote to Democratic nominee Barack Obama and 37 percent to Republican nominee John McCain.

Democrat Pete Visclosky, who took office in 1985, was the incumbent. Visclosky was re-elected in 2008 with 71 percent of the vote. In 2010 Visclosky's opponent in the general election was Republican nominee Mark Leyva, a carpenter and Tea Party activist. Libertarian Party nominee Jon Morris also ran. Visclosky was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Adam Dombkowski, a manager; Ric Holtz, an accountant; Peter Lindemulder III, a businessman; Eric Olson, a businessman; Rob Pastore, a businessman; Michael Petyo, the president of a construction company; and Jayson Reeves, an engineer, also sought the Republican nomination.

Visclosky raised $891,338 and spent $1,387,951. Leyva raised $17,848 and spent $17,266. Lindemulder raised $24,950 and spent $23,487. Olson raised $8,648 and spent $8,512. Pastore raised $10,755 and spent $10,382.

Prior to the election FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave Visclosky a 100 percent chance of winning and projected that he would receive 66 percent of the vote to Leyva's 32 percent. On election day Visclosky was re-elected with 59 percent of the vote to Leyva's 39 percent. Visclosky was again re-elected in 2012 and 2014.

District 2


The 2nd district included Michigan City, Mishawaka, South Bend and part of Elkhart. The district's population was 81 percent white, 8 percent black and 7 percent Hispanic (see Race and ethnicity in the United States Census); 83 percent were high school graduates and 19 percent had received a bachelor's degree or higher. Its median income was $45,032. In the 2008 presidential election the district gave 54 percent of its vote to Democratic nominee Barack Obama and 45 percent to Republican nominee John McCain. In 2010 the district had a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+2.

Democrat Joe Donnelly, who took office in 2007, was the incumbent. Donnelly was re-elected in 2008 with 67 percent of the vote. In 2010 Donnelly's opponent in the general election was Republican nominee Jackie Walorski, a member of the Indiana House of Representatives. Libertarian Party nominee Mark Vogel, a U.S. Navy and U.S. Air Force Reserves veteran, also ran. Donnelly was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Jack Jordan, a former business executive; and Tony Zirkle, who also ran in the 2nd district in 2008, also sought the Republican nomination. Martin Dolan, the owner of an information technology consulting company, ended his campaign for the Republican nomination in April 2010, though his name remained on the primary ballot.

Donnelly raised $1,718,200 and spent $20,019. Walorski raised $1,331,778 and spent $1,316,805. Jordan raised $112,226 and spent the same amount.

A poll of 309 registered voters, conducted by the Polling Company, Inc./WomenTrend for the Susan B. Anthony List between July 31 and August 3, 2010, found Donnelly leading with 52 percent to Walorski's 35 percent. In a poll of 400 likely voters, conducted by Ayres, McHenry & Associates, Inc. for American Action Forum between August 16 and 19, 2010, Donnelly led with 46 percent to Walorski's 44 percent. A poll conducted by EPIC-MRA for WSBT-TV between October 1 and 3, 2010, with a sample of 400 likely voters, found Donnely leading with 48 percent to Walorski's 39 percent, while Vogel had the support of 6 percent and 7 percent were undecided. In an EPIC-MRA poll of 400 likely voters, conducted for WBST-TV and WISH-TV between October 19 and 21, Donnelly led with 48 percent to Walorski's 43 percent.

In October 2010 The Cook Political Report rated the race as a "toss up", while CQ Politics and Sabato's Crystal Ball rated the race as "leans Democratic". In November 2010 The Rothenberg Political Report rated the race as "Lean Democrat". Prior to the election FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave Donnelly a 71 percent chance of winning and projected that he would receive 51 percent of the vote to Walorski's 47 percent. On election day Donnelly was re-elected with 48 percent of the vote to Walorski's 47 percent. Donnelly did not seek re-election in 2012 and instead was elected to the U.S. Senate; Walorski was elected to succeed him in the 2nd district and was re-elected in 2014.

District 3


The 3rd district included parts of Fort Wayne and Goshen. The district's population was 85 percent white, 6 percent Hispanic and 6 percent black (see Race and ethnicity in the United States Census); 84 percent were high school graduates and 22 percent had received a bachelor's degree or higher. Its median income was $50,237. In the 2008 presidential election the district gave 56 percent of its vote to Republican nominee John McCain and 43 percent to Democratic nominee Barack Obama.

Republican Mark Souder, who took office in 1995, was the incumbent. Souder was re-elected in 2008 with 55 percent of the vote. Souder won the Republican primary in the 3rd district in May 2010 but resigned from Congress in June 2010 after admitting to an affair with a staff member. He was replaced as the Republican nominee by Marlin Stutzman, a member of the Indiana Senate. Stutzman's opponent in the general election was Democratic nominee Tom Hayhurst, a former member of the Fort Wayne city council. Libertarian Party nominee Scott Wise also ran.

Republican Mark Souder represented this district from 2003 until his resignation on May 18, 2010. Fellow Republican John McCain carried this district with 56% of the vote in the 2008 presidential elections. In the Republican primary, car dealer Bob Thomas gave Souder a strong challenge in the primary. An April SurveyUSA poll showed Thomas within six percentage points of Souder. Other Republican candidates included attorney Phil Troyer and Tea Party activist Greg Dickman. Souder won the primary with 48% of the vote. He was to face Democrat Fort Wayne councilman Tom Hayhurst.

However, as Souder announced his resignation from Congress and his resignation as the Republican candidate for Congress on May 18, 2010, the Governor of Indiana will set a date for a special election. A caucus will be held to choose the Republican candidate for the Special Election and the General Election. The Special Election is expected to be held concurrently with the General Election in November. The Republican caucus to choose the nominee was held on June 12, 2010. State Senator Marlin Stutzman was selected as the Republican nominee for both the Special, and General Elections.

District 3 Special
The 2010 special election for Indiana's 3rd congressional district will be held November 2, contemporaneously with the regularly scheduled general election. The special election was called to fill the vacancy left by Republican Mark Souder, who resigned after an affair with a staffer was revealed.

Democratic candidates

 * Dr. Tom Hayhurst, former Fort Wayne City Councilor; 2006 and 2010 Democratic nominee.

Republican candidates
Nominee Lost Nomination
 * Marlin Stutzman, State Senator and former U.S. Senate candidate
 * Randy Borror, State Representative
 * Liz Brown, Fort Wayne City Councilor
 * Wes Culver, State Representative
 * Phil Troyer, attorney and opponent of Souder in the 2010 primary

District 4
Republican Steve Buyer isn't running for re-election. McCain carried the district with 56% of the vote. Todd Rokita, the Republican Secretary of State of Indiana, and Republican State Senator Brandt Hershman filed to run. Cheryle Denise Allen and Mark Seitz have also filed to run for the Republican nomination. Rokita won the primary and will face Democrat David Sanders in the general election.

District 5
Republican Dan Burton has represented this district since 2003. John McCain carried 59% of the vote in 2008. Former Republican candidate Brose McVey, Indiana Republican Party Executive Director Luke Messer, State Representative Mike Murphy, and 2008 primary challenger John McGoff have all formally announced their intention to run. Burton won the primary with just 30% of the vote. He will face Democrat Tim Crawford in the general election.

District 6
Republican Mike Pence has represented this district since 2003. McCain carried the district with 52% of the vote. He will face Democratic nominee Barry Welsh, a minister.

District 7
Democrat André Carson has served since 2008. Obama carried this district with 71% of the vote, considered safe or solid by most sources. He again faced perennial Republican candidate Marvin Scott, who took issue with Carson's Muslim faith during the general election. However, Carson defeated Scott to retain his seat.

District 8
This was an open seat as Democratic incumbent Brad Ellsworth ran for the U.S. Senate. The Democratic nominee was lawyer and State Representative Trent Van Haaften. The Republican nominee was Larry Bucshon, President of Ohio Valley HeartCare.
 * IN - District 8 from OurCampaigns.com
 * Campaign Contributions from OpenSecrets.org
 * 2010 Indiana - 8th District from ''CQ Politics
 * Race profile at The New York Times

Bucshon received support from the National Republican Congressional Committee and was named a GOP Young Gun. During the campaign, Bucshon was endorsed by several conservative interest groups and elected officials, including the Indiana Chamber of Commerce Congressional Action Committee, United States Chamber of Commerce, National Right to Life Committee, Indiana Right to Life, Indiana Manufacturers Association, Campaign for Working Families, House Minority Leader John Boehner, U.S. Congressman Mike Pence, and Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels. Bucshon received significant campaign contributions from medical groups

Bucshon defeated van Haaften by a margin of 21 points, winning all 18 counties in the district.

District 9
Democratic incumbent Baron Hill is being challenged by Republican Todd Young (campaign site, PVS, WhoRunsGov), Libertarian Greg Knott (campaign site, PVS), and Independent Jerry Lucas (campaign site, PVS).
 * IN - District 9 from OurCampaigns.com
 * Campaign Contributions from OpenSecrets.org
 * 2010 Indiana - 9th District from ''CQ Politics
 * Race profile at The New York Times

Primaries
Five-term Congressman Democrat Baron Hill has won in the ninth district since 1998, except for in 2004, when he lost to Republican Mike Sodrel by 1,425 votes. Hill narrowly regained his seat from Sodrel in 2006 and won another race with Sodrel in 2008 by a wider margin. McCain carried the district with only 50% of the vote. In 2010, Sodrel sought another rematch, but lost to former Marine Captain and Orange County Deputy Prosecutor Todd Young in the Republican primary. Independent Jerry Lucas, a nurse and Army veteran, has also filed to run. Greg Knott entered the race as the Libertarian Party candidate.

Prior to the campaign season, Hill came under increasing public pressure following the passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. At public meetings, Hill had to be escorted by state police for his protection and had heated verbal exchanges with the public which made local news on several occasions and leading Hill to refuse to hold additional public meetings in person.

General
Hill launched a series of campaign ads beginning in mid August questioning Young's intentions for the future of Social Security and highlighting a comment made by Young referring to it as a "ponzi scheme". Local media covering the debate questioned both candidates about their ads; Hill defended his support of healthcare, stimulus, and new regulatory legislation as the correct votes for the future of the country. Young reconfirmed his position, stating Social Security was indeed a ponzi scheme and needed reform to remain financially viable and called on Hill to explain his financial plans for the nation.

The last week of August, the Young campaign began running adds on radio and television pointing out Hill's record of supporting spending legislation and calling on fiscal restraint in Congress. On the night of August 30, Young's Bloomington campaign headquarters were vandalized; the air conditioner was stolen, the phone and internet lines into the building were cut, the power disconnected. The Young campaign requested that Hill participate in seven town hall style debates. The first scheduled debate will be held October 18 at the Buskirk-Chumley Theater in Bloomington.

In a post-primary June Public Opinion Strategies poll, Hill had a 41-33 lead over Young. An August poll conducted by the Young campaign suggested only 37% of voters believed Hill deserved another term. During the first week of September Real Clear Politics had the race rated as a toss-up.