User:Averychellman/sandbox

Origin of the concept
The theory of shrinking cities, that has also been referred to as counterurbanization, metropolitan deconcentration, and metropolitan turnaround, largely originated in Eastern Europe post-socialism, when old industrial regions came under Western privatization and capitalism. Shrinkage in the United States on the other hand, has largely taken place since 2006 in dense urban centers while external suburban areas continue to grow. Suburbanization in tandem with deindustrialization, out-migration, and the 2008 economic crises all contribute to origins of shrinking cities in the U.S. Scholars estimate that 1 in 6 to 1 in 4 cities worldwide are shrinking in countries with expanding economies and those with deindustrialization. However, there are some issues with the concept of shrinking cities, as it seeks to group together areas that undergo depopulation for a variety of complex reasons. These may include an aging population, shifting industries, intentional shrinkage to improve quality of life, or a transitional phase, all of which require different responses and plans.

Theoretical definitions
A shrinking city is a metropolitan area that experiences significant population loss in a short period of time, usually due to emigration, economic decline, or unemployment. Urban development model: Based on the Fordist model of industrialization, it suggests that urbanization is a cyclical process and that urban and regional decline will eventually allow for increased growth. One company town/monostructure model: Cities that focus too much on one branch of economic growth make themselves vulnerable to rapid decline, such as the case with the automobile industry in Flint. Shock therapy model: Especially in Eastern Europe post-socialism, state-owned companies did not survive privatization, leading to plant closures and massive unemployment. Smart decline: “planning for less--fewer people, fewer buildings, fewer land uses,” focused on improving the quality of life for current residents rather than attempting to grow the city Three serious flaws with this model: top-down orientation, the assumption of a “blank slate” at project locations, and the requirement of a quieted public.

History of New Orleans' changing demographics
French colonists founded the city of New Orleans in 1718, traveling from Mobile, Alabama to the Mississippi River. Because the area was a major hub for the slave trade, there was an increase of African slaves from 300 to 1,000 between the years of 1726 to 1732. By 1800, the population of the city included Anglo-Americans, Creoles, and enslaved Africans that were intermixed. However, a large demographic shift took place as a result the Louisiana Purchase of 1803. Driven by the 1791 slave insurgency of Saint Domingue and threat of war with England, the French sold 530,000,000 acres west of the Mississippi including New Orleans to the United States Government. After the purchase, over 10,000 refugees from Saint Domingue doubled the size of the city, changing the population to “1/3 white, 1/3 free people of color and 1/3 African slaves” by 1810. The city’s population expanded even more and experienced shifts between 1830 to 1860 when the city’s population grew three times as large, as a result of an influx of European immigrants whose population overtook the slave population. As a result of the end of the Civil War in 1865, the emancipated African American population in the city doubled to 50,000 by 1870. The subsequent Jim Crow laws segregated blacks to more low-lying and marginalized areas of the city, including black Creoles who previously resided in the French Quarter. However, by 1900 migration to New Orleans slowed, lowering it from the 5th to 12th largest among all American cities, placing it below the growth rate of Chicago, Detroit, and Milwaukee. This change took place largely because of New Orleans’ reliance on agricultural exports that did not require urban laborers. This decline was somewhat lessened by the railway that passed through the city and connected to ocean freighters. Before the 20th century, New Orleans’ neighborhoods were of mixed race, but a combination of Jim Crow laws, racially segregated public housing, unequal educational opportunities, white flight, and unequal employment opportunities led to a racially segregated city. During this time, the city shifted from being tripartite to a biracial, meaning individuals were considered to be black or white. PhD Elizabeth Fussell explains how unequal opportunities based on race contributed to economic and geographic disparities in New Orleans over the years: ''explicitly unequal treatment of those racial groups has been reproduced through an interlocking system of unequal educational opportunities, residential segregation, and blacks were consistently far less likely than whites to complete secondary school, even to present. The effect of racial educational inequity during the "human capital century" has been to diminish the labor-market opportunities and life changes of the individuals that lag behind.'' Beginning in 1960, New Orleans began to see population loss, and just before Hurricane Katrina hit, New Orleans had almost twice as many people living below the poverty level than the national average and a 30% lower average income. The storm worsened population loss and changed the demographics of the city, resulting in an increased proportion of whites population and decreased proportion of black individuals in the years following.

Pre Hurricane Katrina
New Orleans’ population began declining in the 1960s. From 1970 to 2000, the population shrank by 18%, and the region's employment rate fell from 66% to 42%. This resulted partially from the decline of key economic enterprises in the area. New Orleans relied on tourism, a part, and oil, while elsewhere in the United States cities experienced technologically driven growth. The oil boom that had once economically supported the city collapsed in 1979 and 1980, leading to job loss and the proliferation of depopulation. Many other changes in the area incentivized suburbanization, or movement from the city area to surrounding suburbs, including the development of interstate 10 in 1955, the draining of backswamps that were formerly uninhabitable, and federal tax incentives. In terms of demographics, this caused movement of whites into exclusive suburban areas eventually resulting in a majority of Black residents in the urban core of New Orleans, but not in the broader metropolitan area that included suburbs. Furthermore, historic school integration and Hurricane Betsy drove many whites from New Orleans neighborhoods. Racially segregated public housing, racial discrimination from lenders and realtors contributed to the racialized emigration of New Orleans residens.

Post Hurricane Katrina
Compounded with years of poor economic growth, the largest contributor to the worsening population decline of New Orleans was Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita, which resulted in the flooding of over 80% of the city. The storm displaced 800,000 people, which is the greatest displacement in the United States since the Dust Bowl. In 2010, the population of New Orleans was only at 76% of what it was in 2005.

Pre Hurricane Katrina
Before Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans faced racial segregation and poverty levels above the national average. In 1960 it had the fifth highest level of poverty of all US cities, as well as some of the worst substandard housing. Poverty levels were at 24.5% on 2005, which were almost double the national level, and average income levels were at $30,711, which was about $16,000 less than the national average. Over the years, the city dealt with an aging infrastructure and gradual sinking of the city until portions were below sea level It was found that in inner city neighborhoods over 50% of children had levels of lead in their blood above federal guidelines.

From the beginning of the 20th century to 1980, New Orleans faced increasing residential segregation. Unemployment of blacks was as much as 10 times that of whites, and blacks paid a greater proportion of their income for housing than whites. In the 1970s, four times as many blacks had incomes placing them below the poverty level than whites, and by 1980 there was a belt along the undesirable backswamp of majority black residents. In addition to facilitating the growth of suburbs and advancing depopulation, the creation of Interstate 10 displaced many historically black neighborhoods including Tulane/Gravier, Tremé/Lafitte and the 7th Ward. As individuals with financial and social mobility moved to suburbs, the poor, who were disproportionately African American remained in low lying location within the city's core, making them especially susceptible to flood and storm damage. Although there are a variety of ways Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath affected groups differentially based on race and class, as journalist Eugene Robinson said, "Environmental injustice began long before Hurricane Katrina ever hit, in the basic pattern of settlement in the city."

Post Hurricane Katrina
Hurricane Katrina and shrinkage of New Orleans had significant effects on various groups in the city. African Americans, renters, the elderly, and people with low income were disproportionately impacted by Hurricane Katrina compared to affluent and white residents. First, African Americans are less likely to have rental and homeowner's insurance and to have insurance with major companies as compared to whites, which is related to practices of racially based insurance redlining. Since people of color were more likely to rely on public transportation, the dependence of the evacuation on personal transportation impacted these individuals more than those with personal means to leave the area. Some academics highlight this disparity as an issue of climate injustice,  which is the differential impact of climate change on certain groups, as scientists have shown that increases in activity of Atlantic hurricanes "are believed to reflect, in large part, contemporaneous increases in tropical Atlantic warmth...[and] have attributed these increases to a natural climate cycle termed the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), while other studies suggest that climate change may instead be playing the dominant role."

The number of homeless people in the city was at double the pre-Katrina rate by 2008, and African Americans faced discrimination in housing transactions, finding inferior treatment based on race. FEMA gave some evacuees from Katrina and Rita trailers that were contaminated with formaldehyde, a mistake that took over two years to fix. The National Fair Housing alliance showed in a report that information about units was withheld from or differentially given to African Americans compared to whites, and pointed out examples of racist practices of landlords and online advertisements. Even after federal and state governments spent $4 billion on revitalization efforts to repair levees, black New Orleans is disproportionately endangered by future flooding. In the first four months after the storm, the city's white population rose while the black population declined. As of 2006, evacuees that were African American were 5 times more likely to be unemployed when compared to evacuees that were white. T Of additional concern are the effects on children, who face four times the risk of having serious symptoms of emotional disturbance than comparable children. Moreover, while many parents feel that their children need professional help, the majority of them did not get it or have access to it. As of 2007, only 40% of school children had returned to public school.

These disparities bring up issues with environmental racism as well as environmental justice as a whole, which is defined "defined in terms of the distribution (or maldistribution) of environmental goods and bads."

Pre Hurricane Katrina
There is little evidence that New Orleans was planned and developed with a specific focus on shrinkage as a phenomenon. This is problematic, because even though the metropolitan area as a whole was growing, there was simultaneously an increase in suburbanization. Many long-time residents and their needs were left out of planning decisions due to race and socioeconomic status.

Post Hurricane Katrina
Planning for shrinkage as a result of Hurricane Katrina focuses most of its attention on reconstructing the city after the damage of the storm. There are a variety of methods proposed by academics, communities and governing bodies to develop New Orleans in the aftermath of shrinkage as well as Hurricane Katrina. A large part of the dominant planning narrative seeks to make New Orleans “bigger and better” while still decreasing the overall size of the city. Through the creation of various commissions, many ideas have been proposed and have incited controversy. Many planners agree that part of the effort to revitalize the area must not render the residents vulnerable to the effects of another similar hurricane. In the wake of Katrina, much planning focused on rapid reconstruction of some areas, with proposals for temporary prohibition were rejected by most residents. There are four main planning efforts in response to Hurricane Katrina's damage.

BNOB
The Bring New Orleans Back Commission, created by Mayor Ray Nagin in January 2006, consisted of "professional planners and designers" including the Urban Land Institute (ULI). Some of the BNOB policies included shrinking the city's footprint and conversion of some neighborhoods to parks and wetlands through buyouts from the government. This fueled an outcry from the public, who resisted the idea of being prevented from returning to their homes. This was especially true for African American residents, because "they were much more likely than whites to live in flood prone areas."

NONRP
In November of 2006, the New Orleans Neighborhood Rebuilding Plan was approved by city council. It differed from BNOB as it mainly drew from the community and "was based on the assumption that all areas of the city would be rebuilt," and planned to recover every neighborhood. One of their proposals was a "lot next door" policy, in which property owners were given first priority in purchasing adjacent homes.

UNOP
Funded mainly by philanthropy from the Rockefeller foundation and the Bush-Clinton Katrina Fund, the Unified New Orleans Plan was developed in 5 months. According to America Speaks, the process had "unprecedented levels of citizen engagement...established credability...built a constituency committed to work...[and] helped restore hope."

ORM
Beginning in January 2007, the Office of Recovery Management was funded by the city as well as foundations, and was created to develop a strategy for recovery. It was headed by Edward Blakely, who promoted strategies such as "trigger projects" in 17 target areas to drive development, and the creation of target areas determined to be renew, redevelop or rebuild zones. As of 2007, the project was encountering problems with allocating funds assured by the Louisiana Recovery Authority and FEMA.

Shrinking population in New Orleans
The population in the city of New Orleans faced a decreasing population before and after Hurricane Katrina. Beginning in 1960, the population of the city decreased due to a multitude of factors such as the city's reliance on oil and tourism, nationwide increases in suburbanization, and a migration of jobs to surrounding parishes. This economic and population decline is linked to high levels of poverty, which in 1960 was the fifth highest of all US cities, and was almost twice the national average in 2005, at 24.5%. Furthermore, New Orleans experienced an increase in residential segregation from 1900 to 1980, leaving the poor, who were disproportionately African American in low lying location within the city's core, making them especially susceptible to flood and storm damage.

Hurricane Katrina, which displaced 800,000 people, contributed significantly to the recent continued shrinking of New Orleans. As of 2010, the population of New Orleans was only at 76% of what it was in 2005. African Americans, renters, the elderly, and people with low income were disproportionately impacted by Hurricane Katrina compared to affluent and white residents. In the aftermath of Katrina, city government commissioned groups such as Bring New Orleans Back Commission, the New Orleans Neighborhood Rebuilding Plan, the Unified New Orleans Plan and the Office of Recovery management to helped contributed to plans to address depopulation. Their ideas included shrinking of the city's population and footprint from before the storm, incorporating community voices into development plans, and creating greenspace, but some of these plans have incited controversy.