User:Benjamin Pocheron/VeniceClimateVeniceFuture

Venice's Climate
Located on the north-east coast of Italy, Venice is one of the most touristic cities in Italy. According to the 2017 annual report of Euromonitor International, Venice is the 38th most visited city in the world in 2017 with 5,227,300 visitors in 2017. Despite a touristic growth of 1.7% between 2016 and 2017, Venice lost a few places but the city is forecasted to grow its attractivity by 7.8% in 2020 and 22.7% by end 2025. Facing the Venetian Lagoon and the north of the Adriatic Sea, Venice is settled at less than 150 miles from the Mediterranean Sea. Although the Mediterranean climate (a temperate climate with an important sunshine, hot summers and dry but soft winters ) almost reaches North-Italy, Venice’s environment benefits from a continental climate, a climate with warm summers but robust winters. This latter climate is very specific to the inland sites of northern Italy. According to the scientific article “Climate and Pedoclimate of Italy”, Italy is a country that experiences several different climates at a time, depending on the region of the country. This would be mostly due to the inner geography of Italy, a country located between two seas and close to mountain ranges such as the Alps, the Apennines and the Dinaric Alps.

Venice's Climate before the Industrial Revolution
All scientists do not agree on the real beginning date of the global warming phenomenon. A majority of searchers believe that climate change would have begun as early as the world was entering the Industrial Revolution era. A team of twenty-five scientists, led by Nerilie Abram, stated that global warming has begun one hundred and eighty years ago. From its foundation from more than 100 islands in the 5th century to the mid-nineteenth century, Venice took advantage of a favorable meteorological climate to consolidate its settlements against prospective invasions and possible dangerous climate alterations, such as heavy rain or high water. An article from the Journal of Mediterranean Geography noticed another climate condition specific to Venice before the nineteenth century: the extremely cold and severe great winters. The article states that it was not unusual for the Venetian Lagoon to freeze during some winters. From two to five great winters occurring each century before the nineteenth century, zero great winter occurred in the latter century against only one for the twentieth century. The article also came to the conclusion that the Industrial Revolution in global warming and therefore in the climate change of Venice and its lagoon.

Venice's Climate from the Industrial Revolution to Present Day
The Industrial Revolution saw a critical change in the manufacturing process of most companies in Western Europe. The increase use of fossil fuels and industrial human activities have increased the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration of the Earth’s atmosphere. The CO2 is a gas, among others, that has the particularity to retain the solar radiations from escaping our atmosphere. The carbon dioxide has therefore the ability to retain the heat within the atmosphere. The more the CO2 is produced, the more the solar radiations are kept trapped at the surface of the Earth. This mainly explains two current phenomena:


 * The Earth is becoming warmer, leading to more evaporation and precipitation localized on specific sites.
 * The oceans are becoming warmer, glaciers are melting and so is the sea level.

These two consequences are verified with Venice. The average national monthly temperature increased in the last century for more than 1°C (1.8°F) and the average national monthly rainfall has slightly increased as well. The changes in meteorological conditions are likely to affect the overall environment of Venice and lead to irreversible natural disasters.

Natural Disasters
Nowadays, Venice has experienced an increase in natural disasters. November 1927, December 1933, March 1964, February 1974, 1980, November 1996, November 2001, October 2006, are dates where Venice faced an overall flooding. As we get closer to today’s year of 2018, the frequency of flooding is increasing at a fast pace: January 2010, November 2011, October 2012, November 2012 and the recent October 2018’s flooding resulting from a storm are “the worst episodes of flooding in decades”, according to the New York Times. This flooding has to be differentiated from the natural annual phenomenon Venice faces: the Acqua Alta. The Acqua Alta is the high level of water that invades Venice, each year, during the winter period. This environmental condition occurs because of natural factors such as the “moon’s gravitational force” mixed with the Scirocco winds, from Northern Africa. However, Venice has known an increase of its water level even during the period of Acqua Alta. The Venetian population fears that the Acqua Alta could become a natural disaster if nothing is done to change the climate conditions.

Local, National and International political actions in response to Global Warming
Being a city built on the water, Venice has been prepared and is still preparing to prospective disasters. On a local scale, the city of Venice has implemented many projects to counteract possible disasters. Alert centers with the “previsione di marea” (tide previsions), building higher, a more effective city maintenance are examples of local strategies. The project MOSE (MOdulo Sperimentale Elettromeeccanico = Experimental Electromechanical Module) is the main local project the city of Venice is thinking about. It would involve the creation of gates at several strategic geographical points between the Adriatic Sea and the Venetian Lagoon. The gates would move independently depending on the weather conditions, to prevent flooding in the Venetian Lagoon. The estimated cost of this project fluctuates from $5.5 to $10.4 billion. On a national scale, Italy worked around multiple laws with the aim to reduce the negative environmental impact Italy has had at this point. The “Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report” mentions that within a 95% confidence interval, the global warming is in part due to human activities in the last half decade. 195 countries have signed the Paris Climate Agreement at the date of December 2015. Italy helped design the Agreement and joined this fight against the global rise in temperatures as soon as its entry into force on October 5th, 2016, according to the United Nations - Nations Unies Treaty.

Future of Venice
Two Italian scientists from the Conseil National des Recherches (CNR), Camuffo and Bertolin, warned about a future historical flooding of Venice. A UNESCO report released in 2010 states that the concern is not to know if this problem is coming, but when it is coming. As stated above, the rise in the sea level jeopardizes the existence of Venice. The natural ground subsidence of Venice also might accelerate this process. Both conditions of flooding and ground subsidence diminish the allowance time for Venice to find a solution for its future.