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= Afghanistan Avalanches 2015 =

Background
Afghanistan is prone to a wide range of natural disasters. The United Nations (UN) estimated that 250,000 Afghans are affected by such disasters each year. Between 1980 and 2015, Afghanistan had the second highest number of fatalities caused by natural disasters globally. During this period there were 15 major avalanches in the country.

Major avalanches occur in Afghanistan every few years and the World Bank estimated that between 2000 to 2015, over 153,000 people were affected. Additionally, over 2 million people, over 10,000km of roads and approximately $4billion worth of assets remain exposed to them.

In 2015 alone, over 280,000 Afghans were affected by earthquakes, floods, avalanches and landslides, as well as heavy snowfall. Heavy snowfall precipitated the February 2015 avalanches. Landslides and flooding followed as the snow melted, resulting in fatalities, destruction of homes and roads, isolation of villages and increased difficulty for the government, the UN and NGOs in providing assistance to victims, especially in remote regions. The Salang Pass, an important route between the capital Kabul and provinces in the north, was blocked due to the snow.

The provinces worst affected were Laghman, Nangarhar, Panjsher, Badakhshan and Bamyan. The International Disaster Database estimated that over 33,000 people were affected, 254 people were killed, 72 injured and 6560 were left homeless.

At the end of 2014, responsibility for security was transferred from the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), led by NATO, to the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces. The avalanches occurred shortly after this, putting an unexpected burden on the government. Despite this, the Afghan Government did not make an appeal for international help as the ongoing NATO and NGO presence meant that support was already on the ground and able to assist.

Geographical Impact
Avalanches are a common hydro-meteorological hazard affecting many areas of Afghanistan. 9 of the 34 provinces are classed as high avalanche risk (including Panjshir, Badakhshan, Bamyan) and 14 as medium risk. The avalanches in February 2015 were the worst to affect Afghanistan in over 30 years. Following an unusually dry, mild winter an unprecedented amount of snow fell over 48 hours, 6 feet in places, that blocked roads connecting 20 valleys. In Afghanistan's mountain ranges around 80% of annual precipitation falls as snow. The region affected was at the juncture between the Hindu Kush and Pamir mountains where the topography and climate undoubtedly contributed to the disaster. The region’s characteristics include high-angled slopes, 7000m peaks, deep gorges, and steep sided valleys, where major snowstorms and avalanches are commonplace. The steep slopes facilitate the accumulation of snow, several active fault lines can trigger seismic activity dislodging snow slabs, and variations in temperature at the rock/ice interface cause the ice to melt improving the glide of the snow. These factors increase the probability of avalanche especially when coupled with unusually heavy snowfall. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) have suggested the winter season is getting longer, previously ending in January, it now extends into March. Rising temperatures due to climate change might reduce the risk of avalanche in lower regions, but higher areas are at greater risk due to increased snowfall. Snowmelt in spring and summer sustains the agriculture that Afghanistan's rural populations rely on. Traditionally valley bottoms are reserved for farming and rural communities inhabit villages on the slopes that are at risk of avalanche. Reports suggest 250,000 Afghans per year are displaced by natural disasters, but it seems communities in high-risk areas are unaware of the severity of their situation, cannot afford to move or find alternative land to settle on. This leaves many in vulnerable circumstances.

Local and International Response
In 2015, Afghanistan received US$424.4 million in international aid. The value supporting avalanche relief efforts specifically is unclear, however one recipient organisation, the IFRC, was involved in relief efforts through the Afghan Red Crescent Society (ARCS).

Relief efforts were also supported by philanthropic donations such as that of the Bayat Foundation, who donated US$100,000.

ARCS, through IFRC and other partners, deployed 120 volunteers providing first-aid and assistance with relief distribution. They deployed four mobile health teams (one to Panjsher) to provide medical assistance and two branch assessment teams to Panjsher for rapid assessment following clearance of blocked roads. ARCS also deployed one standby disaster response unit to Panjsher to assist if needed.

ARCS ensured daily Emergency Operations Centre meetings to assess the ongoing situation and decide on actions to be taken by the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement Partners.

Afghan Ministry of Defence helicopters supported relief agencies, including ARCS, delivering blankets, medicines, food, and humanitarian assistance to remote areas. Additionally, 1000 soldiers from the Kabul Corps of the Afghan army were deployed to assist rescue efforts. Emergency relief goods were also sent from neighbouring countries such as Pakistan.

The Afghan Wireless Communication Company deployed mobile base stations and emergency networking equipment to provide communication between villages suffering from roadblocks following the avalanches.

Ashraf Ghani, the Afghan president, allegedly pledged to establish a relief fund for those affected, however the IFRC reported that no government appeal was launched because the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) stated that there were sufficient resources for intervention.

One reporter found locals feeling abandoned by the Government's delayed response to the disaster, with reports of wounded victims being left in their homes up to four days following the avalanches before receiving medical care.

Short and Long Term Health Implications and Other Consequences
Natural disasters inevitably result in both short-term and long-term effects on physical and mental health. Indirect effects of avalanches on health and well-being must also be considered and these can result secondary to evacuation from homes, social disruption, financial loss, significant lifestyle changes and damage to health-care facilities.

Physical health
As of 5 Apr 2015, an estimated 8,827 families had been affected by floods, rain, heavy snow, and avalanches in 137 districts in 24 provinces since 1 Feb. A total of 291 people were killed and 96 people were injured. 1,454 houses were destroyed and 7,119 houses were damaged. (OCHA, 5 Apr 2015) The casualties and house damage caused by avalanches have made thousands of people homeless in a short period, directly affecting the physical and mental health and life of natural residents.

Long Term Health Implications
Long term health impacts of natural disasters in general are vast. Impact on mental health is significant and post traumatic stress disorders may be seen in survivors. Many avalanche survivors suffer significant psychological distress from this, affecting their quality of life. Symptoms of this may include intrusive thoughts and feelings, sadness, and anxiety. One study found that 16 years following an avalanche, 16% of survivors suffered from PTSD.

Effects on healthcare facilities
Avalanches are major natural hazards in snow-covered mountain areas, threatening people and infrastructure. So search and rescue and healthcare providers involved in avalanche rescue face logistical and medical challenges.

Risk perception and evacuation
The severity of past disaster experiences was strongly correlated with perceptions of disaster risk. Additional factors might influence risk perception, evacuation decisions, or both in settings of recurring disasters. Afghanistan experienced numerous snow avalanches resulting in the loss of life and assets in target communities. Since avalanche impact can be mitigated through the use of basic measures, FOCUS has implemented programs to reduce risks and attempt to circumvent the losses faced in 2012 and 2015.

Crop growth in the economic field
The larger the avalanche area is, the closer the sediment is to the village. In particular, 2003 had many avalanche depositional zones that occupied almost 6 % of the surface area of the entire basin. That year was locally noted as having heavy snowfall, and farmers benefited from more snowmelt in the spring, leading to higher-than-average crop yields in 2003.

Disaster information gathering and risk mapping
The key to effective disaster risk management is understanding and accessing hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk information, especially for Afghanistan, which is rebuilding after natural disasters and military conflicts. To strengthen resilience, investments in Afghanistan need to incorporate information on natural hazards into their planning, design and implementation. It is suggested that a separate unit of geoscientists and land use planners be formed with a specific responsibility to revisit natural hazard maps. In fragile states such as Afghanistan, it is critical to make use of the territorial knowledge and data provided by NATO's International Security Assistance Force.

Policy
Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority (ANDMA) is a nominal presence in terms of implementation and policy delivery. This is mainly because ANDMA's provincial branches are severely under-resourced and under-capable. In addition, ANDMA, as an institution, usually arrives after an avalanche has occurred. There is a need to revisit the national plan and to ensure that its contents are implemented, and develop practical national disaster management plans that can address community-level disasters.

Afghanistan needs simple, sustainable and inexpensive avalanche solutions because of the technology, terrain and financial situation. Focus Humanitarian Assistance (FOCUS) works on a community basis to reduce avalanche mortality in vulnerable villages through simple, low-cost programmes such as manual weather stations, education and basic avalanche awareness training at local level.

Infrastructure
Avalanche mitigation measures to protect infrastructure and settlements are often missing, while other avalanche warning systems were built privately at a cost of US$2.5 billion. Restorative short-term activities including the construction of mitigation structures, protection of national roads and the establishment of weather stations to assess changing weather patterns in a timely manner are required in affected communities. Avalanche risk can be reduced by retention structures such as concrete galleries over highways and early warning systems.