User:Bmf 051/sandbox/2024–25 FIFA Nations League

The FIFA Nations League is an idea for a new international tournament, and a new format for World Cup qualifying. The idea is to: 1) Introduce a new "Nations League" tournament, based on the home-and-away model, to compliment the neutral venue format of the FIFA World Cup; 2) Add more competitive, evenly-matched matches for all FIFA members; 3) Give smaller countries a path (albeit a difficult one) to the World Cup; 4) Make FIFA World Cup qualifying more merit-based (Note: this is not mutually exclusive from #3); 5) Give all countries a suitably long World Cup qualifying campaign, instead of only guaranteeing that for larger countries; 6) Give all countries a realistic opportunity to win an international tournament; 7) Create a simpler ranking system, in the sense that teams are ranked and seeded solely based on performance in the previous Nations League/World Cup cycle, rather than using the current FIFA ranking system that is arbitrary and has been subject to nearly constant modification.

The Nations League splits FIFA members into 5 leagues based on the August 2021 FIFA rankings (the only time the FIFA rankings are used in this model), which will then uses a promotion-relegation system to transfer teams between leagues each season based on their performance. Generally speaking, the leagues were initially split based on the rankings as follows: teams ranked 1–48 in League 1; 49–96 in League 2; 97 to 144 in League 3; 145–188 in League 4; and 188 and lower in League 5. Leagues 1 to 4 are split into 8 groups of six (or in some instances, 5 or 7) teams. League 5 is comprised of only 4 groups. Each group contains teams from one of four "regions". The number of groups from each region in a particular league varies, based on the relative strength of the region. In order to give all countries a path to higher leagues while maintaining competitive balance between groups in the same league, some regions contain teams from multiple confederations: the Americas region consists of teams from CONMEBOL and CONCACAF while the Asian-Pacific region consists of teams from the AFC and OFC. On the other hand, the European region features only teams from UEFA, while African region teams only come from CAF. The general path to the World Cup for all teams consists of: 1) Competing in a group stage against teams from the same region and of a similar caliber; 2) Direct qualification to the World Cup for the best teams in the higher leagues; 3) A series of play-off rounds for lower ranked teams from higher leagues and higher ranked teams from lower leagues, with the higher league teams entering the play-offs at later rounds.

Below is a simulation of one Nations League season and World Cup cycle, using the 2026 World Cup hosted by the United States, Mexico, and Canada. It is a psuedo-random simulation, using the World Football Elo Ratings as the basis for its probability model.

League 1
League 1 consists of eight groups: 1 group made-up of African (CAF) teams, 2 groups of teams from the Americas (CONCACAF/CONMEBOL), 1 group of Asian-Pacific teams (AFC/OFC), and 4 groups of European teams (UEFA). The winners of each group advance to the League 1 Finals. The top 3 teams in each group qualify for the 2026 World Cup, while teams finishing 4th–6th qualify for the World Cup play-offs.

Ranking of League 1 group winners
The eight League 1 group winners will advance to the League 1 Finals. The top 4 teams will be seeded and the bottom 4 will be unseeded. Each seeded team will be drawn against an unseeded team for the quarter-finals, with the seeded team hosting the second leg.

Rankings for League 1 relegation play-offs
The sixth-placed teams in the two Americas groups (Groups B and C) will play a relegation play-off with the losers being relegated to League 2. The team with the better group record will be seeded and will host the second leg.

The 4 sixth-placed teams from the European groups (Groups E–H) will be drawn into two relegation play-off semi-finals with the loser being relegated to League 2. The winners of the semi-finals advance to the relegation play-off final with the loser also being relegated to League 2. The top 2 teams will be seeded and the bottom 2 will be unseeded. Each seeded team will be drawn against an unseeded team in the semi-finals, with the seeded team hosting the second leg.

League 2
League 2 consists of eight groups: 2 groups made-up of African (CAF) teams, 1 group of teams from the Americas (CONCACAF/CONMEBOL), 2 groups of Asian-Pacific teams (AFC/OFC), and 3 groups of European teams (UEFA). The winners of each group advance to the League 2 Finals and qualify for the 2026 World Cup, while the group runners-up qualify for the World Cup play-offs.

Ranking of League 2 group winners
The eight League 2 group winners will advance to the League 2 Finals. The top 4 teams will be seeded and the bottom 4 will be unseeded. Each seeded team will be drawn against an unseeded team for the quarter-finals, with the seeded team hosting the second leg.

Ranking of League 2 group runners-up
The eight League 2 group runners-up will advance to the World Cup play-offs. The top 7 runners-up will enter the third play-off round while the remaining runners-up will enter the second play-off round.

Ranking for League 2 relegation play-offs
The 3 sixth-placed teams from the European groups (Groups F–H) will conduct a relegation play-off to decide which team is relegated to League 3. The teams will be seeded 1–3 based on their group records. The #1 seed will play the #2 seed in a relegation semi-final with the #1 seed hosting the second leg. The losers will play the #3 seed in the relegation play-off final with the #3 seed hosting the second leg. The losers of the final will be relegated to League 3.

League 3
League 3 consists of eight groups: 4 groups made-up of African (CAF) teams, 1 group of teams from the Americas (CONCACAF/CONMEBOL), 2 groups of Asian-Pacific teams (AFC/OFC), and 1 group of European teams (UEFA). The winners of each group advance to the League 3 Finals and qualify for the 2026 World Cup play-offs.

Ranking of League 3 group winners
The eight League 3 group winners will advance to the League 3 Finals. The top 4 teams will be seeded and the bottom 4 will be unseeded. Each seeded team will be drawn against an unseeded team for the quarter-finals, with the seeded team hosting the second leg.

Rankings for League 3 relegation play-offs
The 4 sixth-placed teams from the African groups (Groups A–D) will be drawn into two relegation play-offs with the losers being relegated to League 4. The top 2 teams will be seeded and the bottom 2 will be unseeded. Each seeded team will be drawn against an unseeded team, with the seeded team hosting the second leg.

The fifth-placed teams in the two Asian-Pacific groups (Groups F and G) will play a relegation play-off with the losers being relegated to League 4. The team with the better group record will be seeded and will host the second leg.

League 4
League 4 consists of eight groups: 2 groups made-up of African (CAF) teams, 2 groups of teams from the Americas (CONCACAF/CONMEBOL), 3 groups of Asian-Pacific teams (AFC/OFC), and 1 group of European teams (UEFA). The winners of each group advance to the League 4 Finals and qualify for the 2026 World Cup play-offs.

Ranking of League 4 group winners
The eight League 4 group winners will advance to the League 4 Finals and the World Cup play-offs. The bottom 4 teams will be unseeded and will enter the first play-off round. The remaining group winners will be seeded. The third and fourth-best group winners will enter the first play-off round as well while the top 2 will enter the second play-off round. Each seeded team will be drawn against an unseeded team for the quarter-finals, with the seeded team hosting the second leg. Due to the uneven number of teams in each group, games against teams ranked sixth or seventh in a group are not counted in this ranking. That is, the following matches weren't counted: Gambia 2–0 Djibouti, Djibouti 0–0 Gambia, Liberia 8–1 Mauritius, Mauritius 0–2 Liberia, Malta 3–0 Gibraltar, Gibraltar 1–1 Malta, Malta 3–0 San Marino, and San Marino 0–2 Malta.

Ranking for League 4 relegation play-offs
The 3 fifth-placed teams from the Asian-Pacific groups (Groups E–G) will conduct a relegation play-off to decide which two teams are relegated to League 5. The teams will be seeded 1–3 based on their group records. The #2 seed will play the #3 seed in a relegation semi-final with the #2 seed hosting the second leg. The losers will be relegated. The winners will play the #1 seed in the relegation play-off final with the #1 seed hosting the first leg. The losers of the final will also be relegated to League 5.

League 5
League 5 consists of four groups: 2 group of teams from the Americas (CONCACAF/CONMEBOL) and 2 groups of Asian-Pacific teams (AFC/OFC). The winners of each group advance to the League 5 Finals and qualify for the 2026 World Cup play-offs.

Ranking of League 5 group winners
The four League 5 group winners will advance to the League 5 Finals. The top 2 teams will be seeded and the bottom 2 will be unseeded. Each seeded team will be drawn against an unseeded team for the semi-finals, with the seeded team hosting the second leg. Due to the uneven number of teams in each group, games against teams ranked sixth in a group are not counted in this ranking. That is, the following matches were not counted: Saint Lucia 3–0 Anguilla, Anguilla 1–5 Saint Lucia, Pakistan 3–1 Bhutan, Bhutan 1–2 Pakistan, Bangladesh 2–0 American Samoa, American Samoa 0–1 Bangladesh.

League 1 (Americas)
The two sixth-placed teams from Group 1B and Group 1C will meet in a two-legged tie. The winner remains in League 1 next season and loser is relegated to League 2.


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''Chile remain in League 1. Costa Rica relegated to League 2.''

League 1 (Europe)
The four sixth-placed teams from groups 1E, 1F, 1G, and 1H will meet in two-legged semi-finals. The losers of each semi-final will be relegated to League 2 next season while the winners will advance to the final. The losers of the final will also be relegated to League 2 while the winners will remain in League 1.


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 * +Final


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''Russia remain in League 1. Turkey, Romania, and Norway relegated to League 2.''

League 2 (Europe)
The three sixth-placed teams from groups 2F, 2G, and 2H will meet in a two-legged semi-final and final. Two teams will meet in the semi-final with the winners remaining in League 2 and the losers advancing to the final. The winners of the final will also remain in League 2 while the losers will be relegated to League 3.


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 * +Final


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''Slovenia and Montenegro remain in League 2. Luxembourg relegated to League 3.''

League 3 (Africa)
The four sixth-placed teams from groups 3A, 3B, 3C, and 3D will play in separate two-legged ties. The winners of each tie will remain in League 3 next season while the losers will be relegated to League 4.


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''Niger and Burundi remain in League 3. Equatorial Guinea and Comoros relegated to League 4.''

League 3 (Asia-Pacific)
The two fifth-placed teams from Group 3F and Group 3G will meet in a two-legged tie. The winner remains in League 3 next season and loser is relegated to League 4.


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''Turkmenistan remain in League 3. Philippines relegated to League 4.''

League 4 (Asia-Pacific)
The three fifth-placed teams from groups 4E, 4F, and 4G will meet in a two-legged semi-final and final. Two teams will meet in the semi-final with the winners advancing to the final and the losers being relegated to League 5. The losers of the final will also be relegated to League 5 while the winners will remain in League 4.


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 * +Final


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''Macau remain in League 4. Mongolia and Cambodia relegated to League 5.''

Finals
In each league, the first round (quarter-finals for Leagues 1–4 and semi-finals for League 5) matched each seeded team against an unseeded team, with the unseeded team hosting the first leg and the seeded team hosting the second. The initial draw also determined the seedings and home-field advantage for later rounds.

World Cup Play-offs
The World Cup play-offs consist of three rounds, with the 15 winners of the third play-off round advancing to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, joining the 3 host nations and the 30 other teams who qualified through the Nations League group stage.

In each round, teams were split into two pots: seeded and unseed. Each seeded team was drawn against an unseeded team. Teams from the same confederation, zone, or league could be drawn against each other. However teams from the same group could not be drawn against each other (this was only possible in the third play-off round, and only involving teams from League 1). Some teams could not be drawn against each other for political reasons, like Russia and Ukraine. The unseeded team hosts the first leg and the seeded team hosts the second leg. The draw for each round was conducted at once, and thus the second and third play-off round draws took place before all the teams involved in those rounds were known. So the seeding in these cases was carried out under the assumption that the highest seeded team would advance from the previous round.

Seeding for each round of the play-offs was based off the following order of precedent: teams entering a particular round were ranked over teams advancing from the previous round, teams in higher leagues were ranked over teams from lower leagues, ranking within own group (4th, 5th, then 6th; this only applied for teams in League 1, as all other groups only had one team participating in the play-offs), match points (excluding matches against "extra" teams in Leagues 4 and 5, where group sizes are unequal), and finally the group stage tie-breakers in order.

First play-off round

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Second play-off round

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Third play-off round

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FIFA World Cup
The 48 qualifiers were split into three pots based on the following order of precedent: 1) The host nations were ranked ahead of all other teams, 2) Teams who qualified directly were ranked ahead of play-off winners, 3) Teams from higher leagues were ranked ahead of teams from lower leagues, 4) Teams were ranked based on their ranking from the FIFA Nations League.

Teams were drawn into 16 groups of three teams each, with each group consisting of one team from each pot. The United States were automatically placed into Group A, Canada into Group D, and Mexico into Group I. Unlike the Nations League draw (which was "regional", with some regions consisting of teams from two different confederations), the World Cup draw remains confederation based. Teams from the same confederation could not be drawn into the same group. The exception was UEFA teams, with each group having 1 or 2 teams from that confederation, due to the number of UEFA teams exceeding the number of groups (22 teams and only 16 groups).

2030 FIFA World Cup
I followed this up with a simulation of the 2030 FIFA World Cup cycle here.