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PollyVote, at www.pollyvote.com, is a website that combines multiple components in an attempt to provide more accurate daily, updated predictions of the upcoming election outcome. With its mascot, Polly the Parrot, PollyVote predicts the Republicans' share of the popular two-party vote in an election.



History
In 2004, PollyVote provided near-perfect predictions in the US Presidential Election. PollyVote predicted on the morning of the election that George W. Bush would receive 51.5% of the popular vote. He received 51.2% of the popular vote.

PollyVote forecast the U.S. House of Representatives Election Results, 2006, predicting two days before the elections that the Republicans would lose 23 seats in the House and that the Democrats would gain the majority. The Republicans lost 30 seats and the Democrats gained the majority.

The PollyVote website is currently providing daily predictions for the upcoming 2008 US Presidential Election of Barack Obama vs. John McCain. On July 3, 2008, PollyVote was quoted in MarketWatch from the Wall Street Journal for its 2008 U.S. Presidential Election predictions.

Forecast Components
As shown by J. Scott Armstrong, Professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, combining forecasts from different components reduces forecast error and can even be more accurate than the most accurate components. To help further improve accuracy, PollyVote combines and averages forecasts from different components to reduce forecast error. The four components that are combined and averaged in PollyVote's forecasts are: polls, predictions from a group of experts, a prediction market (the Iowa Electronic Markets), and forecasts from quantitative models. Each component is equally weighted.

Polls
PollyVote uses poll data from the RCP poll average at www.realclearpolitics.com. Using this averaged poll data helps counteract the large variations exhibited in diferent polls taken at the same time.

In order to provide a more accurate prediction, PollyVote discounts poll data based on historical poll records. These historical records have been proven to provide unreliable forecasts of election outcome.

Expert Predictions
PollyVote analyzes election predictions from a panel of political experts using the Nominal Group Technique, which it finds preferable to the Delpi method.

Prediction Markets
PollyVote makes use of the Iowa Prediction Markets in forecasting by taking the combined rolling average of the markets for the previous 7 days adjust for short-term overreactions. Prediction markets have been shown to be more accurate than polls.

Quantitative Models
PollyVote averages results from all available quantitative models: those of Douglas Hibbs, Ray Fair, Helmut Norpoth, and Alan Lichtman.

Sponsors
PollyVote is part of the Political Forecasting Special Interest Group at www.forecastingprinciples.com, a resource for scholars and practitioners interested in forecasting elections and other political events. It is supported by the International Institute of Forecasters.