User:Calthinus/Lev

How to divide discourse?

EastMed pipeline -- reduces reliance on Russian AND Turkish oil; "retaliation" by Greece/Cyprus/Israel for the Tripoli-Ankara agreement

Turkish-Greek disputes in Aegean -- long running but recently inflamed by Turkish-Libyan accord which extends Turkish maritime boundaries all the way to Cyrenaica

Turkey vs Cyrenaica -- the Tobruk government did not agree to this but it controls Cyrenaica. Tobruk detained Turkish ship.

Egypt vs. Turkey -- Egypt is cut off from the West Mediterranean by this deal, while Turkey is interfering in Egypt's "backyard", Libya.

Israel vs. Turkey -- Israel is also cut off

Lebanon vs. Turkey -- Lebanon officially has a similar position....... but I suspect there are sharp Sunni/non-Sunni divisions here............

Syria -- has no gov't but obviously got screwed by all sides here as it has been locked out of the gas deals and also cut off by the Turkey-Tripolitania deal

Gas in teh East Med-- recent discovery, big bucks, oops we forgot about global warming. Cyprus, Italy, Greece, Israel and Lebanon despite all thetir differences happy to eat pie together.... without Turkey.

Italy -- stance on East Med is confusing, appears to flop back and forth

Turkish involvement in the Second Libyan Civil War -- Turkey was always on Tripoli's side, the inflammatory deal was the latest episode of that. Tobruk appears to be winning, but Turkish troops on the ground could undermine that

Turkish-Russian negotiations -- Turkey and Russia negotiate the future of Libya. What does this mean for Greece, let alone Libya?

Turkey-Israel dispute -- like with Greece, running since 2009, but very much inflamed by recent events

Turkey-Cyprus -- let's not get into this

Turkey-Cyprus-Israel -- Turkey expelled an Israeli ship from what are clearly Cypriot, not even North Cypriot, waters

Turkey-Israel-Israel -- the issue of Turkey is not politicized in Israel, however the Israeli government still needs yet another election

Israel and Greece -- historically relations are cordial but not close. They have become much closer since 2009. Historically Greece has been occasionally sympathetic to Israel (in the rihgt wing?) but tends to prioritize relations with Arab countries. Since Israel's main disputes right now are not with Arabs, it is easier for Greece to become close with Israel. Likewise, historically Israel has valued an alliance with Turkey, but lately that relationship has become a "hate-hate" relationship that just pretends to be cordial when the Americans walk into the room. However Israeli ties with Azerbaijan remain strong.

Greece, Turkey and Cyprus -- analogous to Albania and Kosovo, sense of kinship which Turkey is not thrilled about. See also North Cyprus. Turkey does not want a defacto Greek zone stretching from Cyprus to Corfu, not just because it offends their Ottoman sensibilities, but cuts them off from the South Mediterranean (just like the Tripoli-Ankara deal does ot Egypt and Israel) and all that gas money. Likewise in addition to surrounding Greek isles, Greece is cut off from Cyprus by the "Mavi Vatan".

Greece, NATO and Turkey -- some in Greece wonder if they are protected in a scenario of an inter-NATO dispute between Greece and Turkey. But should we actually say this on wiki?

-- NATO and Turkey -- some have called for Turkey to be expelled. Bernie Sanders seems to have implied he is open to the idea. Reporter: "Should they be kicked out of NATO?" Bernie: "Turkey is not an ally when it invades countries and commits mass slaughter etc etc" -- is that an implicit "yes"? Do campaign statements in October 2019 mean anything though?

Israel/Turkey -- although Turkey and Greece are allies, there is much more fear they could end up in a bad situation. There seems to be confidence that Israel and Turkey will avoid actual conflict. I have my doubts about this but there seem to be no sources objecting to this conventional view. Still both sides have been clear that they do not want conflict. Regarding the Palestinian issue, it is not clear that Erdogan's "help" is useful; it is more for internal consumption and Israel understands this, and therefore tolerates it without significant retaliation (despite considerable sympathy for hte Kurds).

Turkey/Egypt: already at war via proxy, Turkey basically views the Egyptian gov't as illegimate.

Turkey-Russia-Israel-Iran -- Russian and Iranian military entities intimidated Israel during current political headaches, Erdogan probably grinning. Israeli news sometimes puts this in the context of the whole gas dispute or vice versa, but I doubt Greek/Turkish/Russian/etc news does

Russia -- this pipeline is obviously a slap in the face but seems to be silent... so far. In this, Russia and Turkey have a common interest. But Russia has also backed Haftar.

US -- the only thing certain is "?????????..........!!!!...........???..........!!!...............???"

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Idea

Background pages:

1. Aegean dispute

2. Second Libyan civil war

3. Turkey-Israel relations plus other relations pages

Spinoffs:

1. EastMed pipeline deal

2. Turkey-Libya maritime accord

Main page: East Mediterranean maritime borders

Topic: multilateral disputes between Turkey, Greece, Cyprus, Israel, Egypt, and the two Libyan factions over where maritime boundaries are?

Aegean dispute is only one of these, because there is a Cyprus/Turkey dispute, an Israel/Turkey dispute and a Cyrenaica+Egypt/Turkey+Tripolitania dispute.

Maybe be premature... will think more.