User:Ch4391590/sandbox

the Effect of Climate Change for Food Price in Australia Introduction

Climate change mainly refers to changes in temperature, precipitation and wind. Primarily the phenomenon of climate change caused by human activities. As a direct result of climate change, the earth’s ecosystem is threatened, affecting the living conditions of humans and other organisms and the stability of the global economy (“Climate change”, 2020). The main reason for climate change is the global climate impact caused by the gas produced after the burning of fossil fuels. After the burning of fossil fuels, the heat-collecting gas is discharged into the earth’s atmosphere, resulting in global warming, including changes in temperature and sea-level rise; the melting of glaciers; changes in the growth of plants and the occurrence of extreme weather events. Among them, the most obvious is global warming (Karl & Trenberth, 2003).

The world population maintains a growing trend and is expected to grow to nearly 10 billion by 2050. This means that global agriculture needs to continuously improve production and quality to meet people's daily needs. However, high temperatures, extreme weather, drought, global warming and rising sea levels caused by climate change threaten the quality of food supplies. Cho (2018) pointed out that climate change affects not only crops but also meat production, fisheries and processing industries. Eighty per cent of the world's crops are raised by rain, so most farmers rely on predictable weather conditions that agriculture can adapt to produce. However, climate change is changing rainfall patterns around the world. Floods caused by increased tropical storm intensity and rising sea levels may also increase with climate change and may inundate crops. Hot weather will accelerate the evaporation of water, leading to more droughts and water shortages in more areas, which will increase the cost of irrigation water, and the lack of water will also lead to a decline in crop yields. Extreme weather, such as storms and floods, can also disrupt food transportation, affect food supply, and increase the cost of processing companies. Climate change will also have an impact on the preservation of food. The increase in temperature will increase the risk of food spoilage. If the food is not stored correctly, it may increase the risk of contamination and cause more food-related diseases. Rising temperatures may cause the ideal growth conditions for traditional crops to shift to higher latitudes, where the soil may be less fertile, resulting in a decline in crop yield and quality. Because the effects of the greenhouse effect cause glaciers to melt, this phenomenon may cause sea levels to rise. In Asia, most rice is grown in coastal areas. Rising sea levels may affect rice planting areas. Besides, the shift of seawater to inland may reduce crop yields. (Wheeler & Von, 2013)

Climate change will destroy food supplies, reduce food access, and affect food quality. The increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events may also disrupt food supplies. These factors will affect the output of food and increase the production cost of enterprises (Rosenzweig & Parry, 1994). As the global population is increasing, the direct result of the decrease in food production is the increase in food prices. In this case, rising food prices may hurt people, because rising prices will reduce people's purchasing power and undermine their food security, thereby exacerbating their unstable economic conditions. In addition to the impact on poverty and food security, rising food prices will also affect political stability. For some developing countries with food shortages, rising food prices are a contributing factor to social unrest (Bellemare, 2015). This article will illustrate the potential risk and driver for the food price, which is relevant with the climate change. Subsequently, this article will describe and conduct two Australian case studies to explain how the climate change affected the food price in Australia.

Potential risk and price driver The conditions for conducting agricultural activities are deeply affecting by climate change, such as temperature rise, frequent drought, unstable rainfall, etc. Some of the climate changes are beneficial to agriculture, while most of them post threaten to farmers (Gitz et al, 2016). The impact of climate change on prices is also related to the degree of climate change itself. The more severe the climate change, the greater the impact on food prices (Bradbear & Friel, 2013). This part will illustrate potential risks of climate change to agricultural activities and how will these risks likely affect prices of food in Australia. Potential risk Global warming is one of the most discussed climate changes risk today. The most direct result of the temperature rise is the increase in temperature. Commonly, small temperature increase is good for farmers, as plant growth is accelerated. That is to say, the time from sowing to harvesting of crops has been shortened (Went, 1953). Besides, farmers can grow crops that were originally grown in warmer regions as the average temperature rises. These situations can have positive impact on food price -- an increase in food production means an increase in supply, and food prices will drop slightly. However, when temperature exceeds a crop's optimal level or extremely hot weather appears, both planting area and crop yields will decline, which occur more frequently and have a greater impact on prices of food, which is often accompanied by substantial price increases (Pryor et al, 2014). Bradbear and Friel (2013) concluded that food prices rise in line with temperature increase, and the more the temperature rises, the higher the prices increase. Because of the frequent and intense heatwaves, according to ABS, food prices are rising twice as fast as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during 2005 to 2007, especially fresh fruit and vegetable, increasing 43% and 33% respectively (Quiggin, 2010). Droughts are usually relative to the food prices increase in Australia market, particularly fresh food. This is because most of fresh produce faces domestic market, resulting in the limited ability to compensate for reduction of output when droughts occur (Quiggin, 2010). In addition, in 2006, Cyclone Larry landed in North Queensland, which reduced the local banana production by 90% and directly affected the nine-month supply, resulting in a 500% increase in banana prices (Hughes et al, 2015).

Potential drivers

The impact of climate change on food prices is not expected to be uniform. Internationally, there are big differences between agricultural activities around the world, and climate change will have varying degrees of impact, which may affect the global commodity prices. For Australia, different crops have different vulnerabilities to environmental changes. The productivity of crops will be affected by local rainfall and temperature changes, while the livestock industry will be affected by the number of available pastures and the quantity and quality of feed. What cannot be ignored is the commodity prices in the international market will also have an impact on food prices in the Australian market. That is, because Australia will import and export goods to the international market, it has to be limited by price fluctuations during the transaction, and this fluctuation will in turn, changes in domestic food prices (Bradbear & Friel, 2013). In general, the direct and indirect effects of climate change are common risks related to many factors that drive food prices. Although there are many measures and means to deal with climate change, very little can be done to control price fluctuations.

Case study one: The impact of extreme weather on the Australian honeybee industry As is widely accepted, the bushfire happened in 2019 has caused huge damage in Australia. For the contribution of why the bushfire happens, the majority of interpretations are related to climate change (Burgess, et al., 2020). In 2019, Australia experienced a long period of drought. Both the highest temperature and lowest rainfall exceed the historical records, and the highest temperature was broke for twice in December (The Sydney Morning Herald,2020). Additionally, the positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOP), an event where sea surface temperatures are warmer in the western half of the ocean, cooler in the east, which also exacerbates the hot and dry conditions in Australia. Therefore, most areas have a persistent high temperature of over 40 degrees in summer, which cause the crops to be drier and more flammable (Christian Today,2020). These data above are supported by BOM (2019) (figure 1) (a)	                                 (b) (c) Figure 1: Australia's overall climate situation for 2019. (a): Rain deciles from January to December, and (b): Temperature deciles from January to December. (c): the average temperatures measured over 23 years period (1990-2012). Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology. This bushfire affected heavily the biological environment and economic development in Australia. Taking honeybee industry into account, beekeepers have experienced several “ordeals”, including the death of colonies, the soaring cost, the decline of honey products. The number of colonies has an obvious decrease in 2019. Mike (2020) points out that nearly 98 per cent of the land where colonies live was destroyed in the whole of Australia, and more than 9000 artificial or natural beehives were burned. More than that, he also states that most wild honeybees ‘death is also due to the shortage of pollen. long-term climate change has caused the frequency of drought, which reduce the reliability of regular flowering of flowers resources. Thus, wild honeybees will die as they fail to gather enough pollen in time. The soaring cost of feeding and transportation is the second dilemma that beekeepers must address. As previously mentioned, the flowering season is shorter and more volatile as extreme drought disrupts blooming and reduces the availability of pollen. As a result, nectar becomes concentrated and thick, and the protein content of pollen is degraded and thus cannot meet the nutritional needs of bees (Papanikolaou, et al., 2017). Unlike the livestock industry, beekeepers do not sell livestock to compensate for the loss when pasture becomes drier, which means that if they want to stay in the beekeeping business, the only option is to buy expensive syrups and pollen to supplement the bees' nutrition (The Land,2019). Additionally, the transportation of colonies is also a tremendous expenditure. Generally, when the temperature exceeds 45 degrees or higher, the colony will in a big mess. Beekeepers sometimes have to move their hives hundreds of kilometers away where the local environment is safer (The Mercury,2019). Hence, both expensive feeding cost and transportation cost resulted from climate change trigger an enormous pressure on beekeepers. The third effect on honeybee industry is the decrease of honey products. This negative effect could be divided into two different periods. For the present, Mike (2020) points out that bushfire has already caused the collapse in honey production, which dropped 60 per cent in 2019 compared with the production in 2018. Moreover, a bushfire will have a long-term negative effect on honey production. This is because the full recover of biological environment requires at least 20 years, which means that the honey production will be in a lower degree for serval years (Sarina, et al.,2019). Scientists estimate that the total amount of honey will drop 30 per cent in the next ten years, and the annual average supplies will be reduced by 1000 to 3000 tons (The Mercury,2019). Taken together, we can conclude that the drought and bushfire have a serious and long-term negative impact on the Australian honeybee industry. The main effect will be reflected in the price of bee products. For example, the retail price of honey increased by 5% to 35c in 2019 (Melanie and Elly, 2019). In addition, forest fires in the eastern coastal areas increased the wholesale price of honey by 40%, from 4.8 AUS to about 6.5 AUS (Melanie and Elly, 2019). The fluctuation of the bee industry will also have a negative effect on other agricultural products. Production risks in the Australian almond and vegetable industries are increased as the pollination capacity of honeybees is diminished. The price of fresh fruits and vegetables in 2020 has soared 50 per cent over last year (Australia Honey,2020). Case study two: banana industry in Queensland

It is reported (Lindsay, 2014) that banana industry in Queensland has an annual output value of approximately AUD 500 million and supplies more than 90% of the Australian market. However, from November to April is the cyclone season in Australia (Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, 2008), the main producing areas of banana will experience tropical cyclone activities. Severe tropical cyclone activity will have a huge impact on banana production and supply. There were two Severe Tropical Cyclones (TC) crossed the Northern Queensland coast (Hayes 2011) – TC Larry (Category 4) in March 2006 and TC Yasi (Category 5) in February 2011. Both of them directly affected the main producing area (West et al., 2017) and caused significant destruction. Geographically, a large number of tidal rivers and creeks are distributed in this area, and there is an important single-lane highway runs through the entire coastal area of North Queensland. Although some flood prevention projects have been used, due to the nature of tropical weather and cyclone activities, this highway is prone to flooding (West et al., 2017). As a result, the price of banana increased by 377% in six months (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2011). According to Lindsay (2014), two different farm-based trials were implemented to mitigate the damage on banana industry that caused by tropical cyclones. The first practice is leaf removal. Due to TC Larry, a large percentage of the plants had been uprooted instead of being bent or snapped. Therefore, banana growers had to spend a large amount of money on replanting the plantation. Learning from this experience, in order to minimize the impact caused by TC Yasi and plant loss, some banana growers removed the leaf canopy because it can reduce wind resistance. Result proves that this treatment made a great success in preventing plant loss. In addition, the removal of the canopy stimulated the growth of banana bunches and made an earlier production. To some extent, it alleviated the financial difficulties that caused by tropical cyclones. However, the productivity and the quality of these bunches were poorer than normal plants. But this situation was acceptable in the Australian market until the normal supply is restored, since there were no alternative production areas to support the banana supply. Another method is “staggered cropping program”. Because of the destruction of tropical cyclones, the fruit output that should have been supplied throughout the year was harvested in just a few months, resulting in an imbalance in supply (Lindsay, 2014). In order to overcome this “synchronized cropping cycle”, a technique named “nurse-suckering” has been used in banana production. Nurse-suckering is “a technique used to time crop production where the following sucker is cut down and killed before it bunches which produces a flush of new suckers” (Queensland Government Department of Agriculture; Forestry & Fisheries, 2012). By using this technique, the time for cropping could be delayed by three to four months (Lindsay, 2014), and the crop uniformity could be improved. This cropping program is also applicable to other banana production areas affected by the cyclone. However, the seasonal patterns of specific locations and the growth rate of bananas must be taken into account to ensure that the supply can be continued. Conclusion: