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The European migrant crisis,   also known as the refugee crisis,     is a period characterised by high numbers of people arriving in the European Union (EU) overseas from across the Mediterranean Sea or overland through Southeast Europe. In March 2019, the European Commission declared the migrant crisis to be at an end. However, the EU still witnesses a high number of migrants arriving through the Mediterranean, despite the decline in numbers in recent years. The migration crisis is one of the most complex issues the EU faces in the 21st century. This is because it involves both managing and organising the EU's internal approach but it also requires immense diplomatic, strategic and maritime efforts.

The migrant crisis is a part of a pattern of increased forced migration to Europe from other continents which is said to have begun in 2014. At the peak of the crisis in 2015, The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) observed that the top three nationalities among over one million refugees arriving from the Mediterranean Sea were Syrian (46.7%), Afghan (20.9%) and Iraqi (9.4%). By 2019, the number of displaced arrivals to the Mediterranean had dropped to 129,663 people. In 2020, the total amount was 95,031 refugees and migrants. Currently the main nationalities of migrants are Tunisian (18.8%), Algerian (12.1%) and Moroccan (6.9%).

Many refugees that arrived in Italy and Greece came from countries where armed conflict was ongoing (Syrian Civil War, Afghanistan War, Iraqi conflict) or which otherwise were considered to be "refugee-producing" and for whom international protection is needed. The collapse of border controls during the Libyan Civil War (2014–2020) abetted human smuggling through Libya, with the Libya route used by huge numbers of people. The COVID-19 pandemic has both increased migration flows and the difficulties associated with managing them. Of the migrants arriving in Europe by sea in 2015, 58% were males over 18 years of age (77% of adults), 17% were females over 18 (22% of adults) and the remaining 25% were under 18. The number of deaths at sea rose to record levels in April 2015, when five boats carrying approximately 2,000 migrants to Europe sank in the Mediterranean Sea, with the combined death toll estimated at more than 1,200 people. The shipwrecks took place during conflicts and refugee crises in several Greater Middle Eastern and African countries, which increased the total number of forcibly displaced people worldwide at the end of 2014 to almost 60 million, the highest level since World War II.

The EU has been managing the crisis through various strategies. Internally through the European Agenda on Migration, the distribution of migrants and allocation of funds across EU states and the development of common programmes and protocols. Externally, by creating agreements and partnerships with third nations and agencies. Notably, the 2016 Turkey Agreement and FRONTEX as an agency partner to secure sea borders.

Pact on Migration and Asylum

In September 2020, the New Pact on Migration and Asylum was presented by the European Commission as the new united approach to managing and approaching migration policy within the EU. It has an emphasis on how vital it is to cooperate with third countries in order to tackle the root causes of migration. According to William Sleath, the director for Citizens, Health, Migration and Security Union in the Secretariat-General of the European Commission, the Pact's main goals include : improving pre-screening and identifications processes for migrants arriving to the EU; ensuring a just and equal distribution of responsibilities between Member states; carefully crafted partnerships with third countries and the creation of a common EU policy on the return of migrants.

Similarities to this pact can be found from the EU's previous Global Approach to Migration from 2005. The Global Approach to Migration, adopted the view that foreign parties were necessary in order to deal with migration effectively. Therefore the new Pact on Migration and Asylum is a continuation of EU policy but with a deeper and more thorough emphasis on foreign international partnerships. The EU aims to show its willingness to work together with its international partners as its main policy for managing migration. More specifically, this will be down by carefully-constructed agreements that will be mutually beneficial and will include clear and specific aims and targets.

Critics of the EU's strategy point to the fact that the EU despite drafting new pacts, it does not take enough action to provide effective solution to the crisis. These criticisms include: Not enough emphasis on migrant integration and safeguarding of migration routes and too much focus on external border security. The European Economic and Social Committee is concerned with regards to the feasibility of the new Pact and its practical application. Moreover, the Committee stresses the point that the EU needs to place more emphasis on the importance of Member state solidarity.

The Pact was only recently proposed but the observation from EU bodies, non-governmental organisations and scholars is that it has not changed from previous EU strategy to accommodate shortcomings.

Turkey Agreement: Locating migrants to safe country

On the 18th of March in 2016, the EU and Turkey came to an agreement over migrants and asylum seekers, this is known as the 2016 EU-Turkey Agreement. The EU proposed a plan to the Turkish government in which any irregular migrants who crossed into Greece from Turkey after 20 March 2016 would be sent back to Turkey based on an individual case-by-case evaluation. Any Syrian returned to Turkey would be replaced by a Syrian resettled from Turkey to the EU; they would preferably be the individuals who did not try to enter the EU illegally in the past. Allowed migrants would not exceed a maximum of 72,000 people. Turkish nationals would have access to the Schengen passport-free zone by June 2016 but would exclude non-Schengen countries such as the UK. The Agreement installs most of the management of refugees to the Greek and Turkish governments. These responsibilities include the safeguarding and security of migration routes from Turkey to Greece by the two countries respectively. In exchange for facilitating this process and aiding in its implementation the EU allocated 6 billion euros to the Turkish government and sent around 2,300 experts, including security and migration officials and translators, to Greece in order to help implement the deal. These funds have been used to create programs aim to help local communities integrate refugees in Turkey as well. Turkey has since become an important partner for the EU in managing the crisis. Numbers of migrants crossing into the EU through Turkey, has decreased from 885,000 in 2015 to approximately 42,000 in 2017.

In terms of allocation of refugees from Turkey, 12 EU countries have national lists of safe countries of origin. The European Commission proposed one, common EU list designated as "safe" across all EU candidate countries (Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey), plus potential EU candidates Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo. The list would allow for faster returns to those countries, even though asylum applications from nationals of those countries would continue to be assessed on an individual, case-by-case basis. International Law generated during the Geneva Convention states that a country is considered "safe" when there is a democratic system in a country and there is generally no persecution, no torture, no threat of violence, and no armed conflict.

The origins of the agreement can be traced back to November of 2015, when Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reportedly threatened to send the millions of refugees in Turkey to EU member states if it was left to shoulder the burden alone. On 12 November 2015, at the end of the Valletta Summit in Malta, EU officials announced an agreement to offer Turkey €3 billion over two years to manage more than 2 million refugees from Syria who had sought refuge there in return for curbing migration through Turkey into the EU. The €3 billion fund for Turkey was approved by the EU in February 2016. In January 2016, the Netherlands proposed a plan that the EU take in 250,000 refugees a year from Turkey in return for Turkey closure of the Aegean sea route to Greece, which Turkey rejected. On 7 March 2016, the EU met with Turkey for another summit in Brussels to negotiate further solutions of the crisis. The original plan was to declare the Western Balkan route closed, but it was met with criticism from Merkel. Turkey countered the offer by demanding a further €3 billion in order to help them supply aid to the 2.7 million refugees in Turkey. In addition, the Turkish government asked for their citizens to be allowed to travel freely into the Schengen area starting at the end of June 2016, as well as expedited talks of a possible accession of Turkey to the European Union. The plan to send migrants back to Turkey was criticised on 8 March 2016 by the United Nations, which warned that it could be illegal to send the migrants back to Turkey in exchange for financial and political rewards.

The talks about Turkey's accession to the EU as a member began in July 2016 and $3.3 billion in aid was to be delivered to Turkey. The talks were suspended in November 2016 after the 2016 Turkish coup d'état attempt. A similar threat was raised as the European Parliament voted to suspend EU membership talks with Turkey in November 2016: "if you go any further," Erdoğan declared, "these border gates will be opened. Neither me nor my people will be affected by these dry threats."

As the agreement was set into motion, the international community observed and criticised it. Firstly, migrants from Greece to Turkey were to be given medical checks, registered, fingerprinted, and bused to "reception and removal" centres. before being deported to their home countries. UNHCR director Vincent Cochetel claimed in August 2016 that parts of the deal were already suspended because of the post-coup absence of Turkish police at the Greek detention centres to oversee deportations. The UNHCR said it was not a party to the EU-Turkey deal and would not be involved in returns or detention. Like the UNHCR, four aid agencies (Médecins Sans Frontières, the International Rescue Committee, the Norwegian Refugee Council and Save the Children) said they would not help to implement the EU-Turkey deal because blanket expulsion of refugees contravened international law.

Amnesty International said that the agreement between EU and Turkey was "madness", and that 18 March 2016 was "a dark day for Refugee Convention, Europe and humanity". Turkish prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that Turkey and EU had the same challenges, the same future, and the same destiny. Donald Tusk said that the migrants in Greece would not be sent back to dangerous areas. Other critics hold the view that the agreement treats migrants as transactions and therefore does not abide by the EU's principles on human rights.

Since the agreement came into effect, the Turkish government has in many occasions provoked the EU. On 17 March 2017, Turkish interior minister Süleyman Soylu threatened to send 15,000 refugees to the European Union every month, while Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu also threatened to cancel the deal. On 9 October 2019, the Turkish offensive into north-eastern Syria began. Within the first week and a half 130,000 people were displaced. On 10 October it was reported that President Erdoğan had threatened to send "millions" of Syrian refugees to Europe in response to criticism of his military offensive into Kurdish-controlled northern Syria. The Northern-Syrian Turkish policies have had a direct effect on the EU-Turkish partnership on migration as witnessed in early 2020. On 27 February 2020, a senior Turkish official said Turkish police, coast guard and border security officials had received orders to no longer stop refugees' land and sea crossings to Europe. This caused an influx of refugees to Greece through its north-eastern border with Turkey, which left an approximate of 35,000 stuck between the two states. The crisis ended as Greece closed its borders and stopped taking in asylum seekers.

The continuation of this agreement depends on a number of factors that will depend on the Turkish-EU relations over issues such as the Syrian Conflict, the Greco-Turkish relations and accession talks.

2020
Overall, in 2020 95,031 migrants arrived in Europe and 1,401 found dead or were reported as missing. In late September 2020, Cyprus authorities were reported to have abandoned 200 migrant workers at sea without fuel and food. The migrants alleged that their asylum claims were ignored and were instead beaten in some cases by the Greek Cypriot marine police officers. The United Nations peacekeepers reported that during their rescue in Lebanon, at least 13 people had either died or been lost at sea.