User:Clayoquot/AFV

In the European Union, certified ‘renewable’ hydrogen, defined as produced from non-biological feedstocks, requires an emission reduction of at least 70% below the fossil fuel it is intended to replace. This is distinct in the EU from ‘low carbon’ hydrogen, which is defined as made using fossil fuel feedstocks. For it to be certified, low carbon hydrogen must achieve at least a 70% reduction in emissions compared with the grey hydrogen it replaces.

The cost of electrolysers has fallen by 60% since 2010, and green hydrogen production costs are forecasted to fall significantly to 2030 and 2050, driving down the cost of green hydrogen alongside the falling cost of renewable power generation. Goldman Sachs analysis observed in 2022, just prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that the “unique dynamic in Europe with historically high gas and carbon prices is already leading to green H2 cost parity with grey across key parts of the region”, and anticipated that globally green hydrogen achieve cost parity with grey hydrogen by 2030, earlier if a global carbon tax were placed on grey hydrogen.

Uses
The International Energy Agency has estimated that hydrogen, and hydrogen-based fuels such as green ammonia could comprise 10% of global final energy demand by 2050, consistent with meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement on limiting global warming to 1.5C. This implies a five-fold increase in hydrogen production from 2021 levels by 2050, with 75% coming from renewably powered electrolysis, and the remainder from fossil fuel-based steam methane reforming with carbon capture and storage.

There is potential for green hydrogen to play a significant role in decarbonising energy systems where there are challenges and limitations to replacing fossil fuels with direct use of electricity. Hydrogen fuel can produce the intense heat required for industrial production of steel, cement, glass, and chemicals, thus contributing to the decarbonisation of industry alongside other technologies, such as electric arc furnaces for steelmaking. However, it is likely to play a larger role in providing industrial feedstock for cleaner production of ammonia and organic chemicals. For example, in steelmaking, hydrogen could function as a clean energy carrier and also as a low-carbon catalyst replacing coal-derived coke. Hydrogen used to decarbonise transportation is likely to find its largest applications in shipping, aviation and to a lesser extent heavy goods vehicles, through the use of hydrogen-derived synthetic fuels such as ammonia and methanol, and fuel cell technology. For light duty vehicles including passenger cars, hydrogen is far behind other alternative fuel vehicles, especially compared with the rate of adoption of battery electric vehicles, and may not play a significant role in future.