User:Dawerbuc/sandbox

Water insecurity has and will continue to be a predominant cause of conflict in Afghanistan and Pakistan have always had conflict, some of which impacts and was even driven by India. Water insecurity has and will continue to be a predominant cause of conflict in Afghanistan and Pakistan, due to both water shortages in both countries and the Kabul River. The Kabul River supplies 26 percent of the annual flow of water into Pakistan. However, the Afghan government recently announced that they will soon commence work on the construction of the 236 million dollar Shahtoot Dam on the Kabul river. The dam is expected to hold 146 million cubic meters of portable water for 2 million Kabul residents and irrigate 4,000 hectares of land in the Charasiab district of the province. The project is a component of Afghanistan’s India-backed ambitious plans of building 12 dams on the Kabul River basin. Pakistani officials showed deep concerns regarding the inauspicious effects of the project on the agricultural production and livelihood of Peshawar residents. Pakistani media have even framed the project as Afghanistan’s oppressive policy toward Pakistan, masterminded by India, but Afghanistan continues to argue that improving its power and water infrastructures is imperative to jumpstart its lagging economy and ensure internal stability.

Pakistan has a close and supportive relationship with China. The People’s Republic of China provides economic, military, and technical assistance to Pakistan, and each country considers the other a close strategic ally. China is Pakistan’s largest supplier of weapons and one of its largest trading partners. There are strong military ties between China and Pakistan beyond the supply of weapons. This alliance between two neighboring Asian nations is significant geopolitically, as the strong military ties counter regional Indian and American influence.

China-India disputes have emerged concerning land borders and economic competition that has led to strained relations. China even now supports Pakistan in the Pakistani-Indian conflicts but has partaken in virtually no combat on the physical border of China and India, preferring to work remotely through the Pakistani-Indian border. China has continued to support Pakistan in the argument over Kashmir even into the 2010s.

Indian warplanes sent rockets into Pakistani territory on February 26th, 2019, unleashing an attack on what India claimed were terrorist targets, launching airstrikes on Pakistani soil for the first time since 1971. Now, when war may be more likely than ever to break out, both sides have nuclear weapons. Pakistan returned fire on the 27th, shooting down two Indian jets, signifying a willingness for violent retaliation. India maintains a “no first use” doctrine, stating India will only use nuclear weapons in response to another nuclear attack. However, Pakistan has not once referred to any clear rules governing its own use of nuclear weapons. No one outside of Pakistan’s highest command knows what could provoke the nation to launch a nuclear strike.

Most experts still find a nuclear war very unlikely. Roy Choudhury clarified “escalating tensions to the point of nuclear conflict would be catastrophic for both India and Pakistan and would destabilize the entire region - an option unlikely to be taken by either New Delhi or Islamabad”. Gunfire between Pakistani and Indian soldiers had been exchanged in 1999, when both countries were reportedly nuclear powers, but both sides soon agreed to deescalate the situation. However, tensions have been high for years and now are at their peak in terms of recent years, and with Pakistan claiming to defend their country with any weapons necessary, it is foolish to completely ignore the possibility of a nuclear war.