User:Desutch2/2024 Republican Primaries

Presidential primaries and caucuses are being held to select delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention to determine the party's nominee for president in the 2024 United States presidential election. The Republican primaries and caucuses have taken place or will take place in all 50 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and five U.S. territories between January and June 2024. The 2024 Republican National Convention is scheduled to be held in July at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. In 2023, a crowded field of candidates emerged, including Florida governor Ron DeSantis, former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, wealth management executive Vivek Ramaswamy, and former president Donald Trump. Trump, the frontrunner, has maintained a consistent lead in primary polling since 2020. Among non-Trump candidates, DeSantis initially polled in a close second behind Trump, but his polling numbers steadily declined throughout 2023. Ramaswamy experienced a polling surge in mid-2023, but this proved to be brief. Haley's campaign began picking up steam in the final months of 2023, though neither she nor any other candidate came close to Trump in polling. The Republican primary has been called a "race for second" due to Trump's consistent lead in polls.

At the January 15, 2024, Iowa caucuses, Trump posted a landslide victory, with DeSantis narrowly beating out Haley for second place and Ramaswamy in a distant fourth. Following the Iowa caucuses, Ramaswamy and DeSantis dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump, leaving Trump and Haley as the only remaining major candidates. Trump then defeated Haley in the January 23 New Hampshire primary, albeit by a smaller margin of victory than he achieved in Iowa, and defeated Haley again in the February 24 South Carolina primary a month after.

Some Republicans have expressed concerns about Trump's potential nomination due to his loss in 2020, his alleged role in inciting the January 6 United States Capitol attack, his ongoing criminal investigations, and the results of the 2022 midterms (in which several Trump-endorsed candidates lost key races). However, many others have supported him and decried the investigations as politically motivated. Trump maintains high favorability ratings among Republican voters. Trump's eligibility to appear on the ballot has been challenged in Colorado and Maine, and legal proceedings regarding his eligibility are ongoing in those states.

Results
Main article: Results of the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries

Candidates
Main article: 2024 Republican Party presidential candidates

As of February 2024, more than 400 candidates have filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. In previous cycles, the majority of these candidates did not appear on any ballots, raise money, or otherwise attempt to formally campaign.

Other candidates

 * Ryan Binkley, Texan pastor and businessman
 * John Anthony Castro, Texan perennial candidate
 * Sam Sloan, former President of the Sexual Freedom League and New York City perennial candidate

Timeline
Main article: Timeline of the 2024 United States presidential election

November 2022
A week after the 2022 midterm elections, former president Donald Trump announced at Mar-a-Lago that he would run again for the presidency in 2024. Trump is the first former president to run for president after leaving office since Herbert Hoover did so in 1940. If he wins the Republican nomination, he will be the first Republican to be nominated for president three separate times since Richard Nixon (Republican nominee in 1960, 1968, and 1972). If elected, Trump would become the only president other than Grover Cleveland to serve two non-consecutive terms.

February 2023
On February 14, former South Carolina governor and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley released a video announcing her presidential candidacy.

On February 21, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy announced his presidential candidacy on Tucker Carlson Tonight.

March 2023
On March 2, businessman Perry Johnson, who had been deemed ineligible to appear on the Republican primary ballot in the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election due to allegedly fraudulent signatures, announced his intent to run for president in 2024.

April 2023
On April 2, former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson announced his candidacy during an interview with ABC News' Jonathan Karl. On April 6, Hutchinson filed candidate paperwork with the Federal Election Commission.

On April 12, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina announced an exploratory committee to run for president.

On April 20, radio host and former California gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder announced his campaign on Tucker Carlson Tonight.

May 2023
On May 19, Tim Scott submitted FEC paperwork to run. He announced his presidential run publicly on May 22.

On May 24, Florida governor and former U.S. representative Ron DeSantis submitted his FEC paperwork to run, and announced that he was running for president during a Twitter Spaces interview with Twitter owner Elon Musk.

June 2023
On June 5, former Vice President Mike Pence filed paperwork to run for president and North Dakota governor Doug Burgum released a campaign video. Pence's candidacy made him the first vice president to run against the president under whom he served since John Nance Garner in 1940.

On June 6, Burgum published an announcement opinion-editorial piece announcing his presidential run in the Wall Street Journal, making him the first person born in North Dakota to seek a major party's president nomination. The same day, former New Jersey governor and 2016 presidential candidate Chris Christie publicly announced a presidential campaign in New Hampshire.

On June 7, Pence publicly announced his bid with a campaign video. Also, Burgum delivered a public announcement speech in Fargo.

On June 14, Miami mayor Francis Suarez filed his run with the Federal Election Commission. He delivered a speech the next day at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library to publicly announce his campaign, as four other Republicans in the race had done in the last year.

On June 22, former CIA agent and representative of Texas Will Hurd launched a run, after previously expressing interest in launching a presidential bid.

August 2023
On August 1, Donald Trump was indicted a third time for trying to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.

On August 14, Donald Trump was indicted a fourth time for trying to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in the state of Georgia.

On August 21, the slate of candidates that officially qualified for the debate was released: Doug Burgum, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson, Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Tim Scott.

On August 23, the first Republican candidates debate took place in Milwaukee, broadcast by Fox News. To be eligible for this debate, a candidate must have polled at least one percent, received donations from 40,000 individuals, and signed a loyalty pledge to back whoever ultimately wins the party presidential nomination. Candidates deemed eligible for the debate were Doug Burgum, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson, Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy and Tim Scott. Trump did not participate in the debate, instead filming an interview with Tucker Carlson that was released minutes before the debate was scheduled to begin.

On August 29, Francis Suarez suspended his presidential campaign, becoming the first major candidate to do so.

September 2023
On September 18, Donald Trump's campaign announced that he would be giving a speech in Detroit before striking United Auto Workers union members at the same time as the second debate in California. United Auto Workers president Shawn Fain pointed out that Trump's speech was being held at a non-union plant whose workers were not connected to the strike.

The requirements to attend the second debate were to be polling at three percent in at least three reputable national polls, while the donor requirement increased to 50,000 unique donations. As of September 26, the slate of candidates that qualified for the second debate and would attend included: Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Vivek Ramaswamy, Mike Pence, Chris Christie, and Doug Burgum. Asa Hutchinson, who appeared for the first debate, did not qualify.

On September 27, the second Republican presidential debate took place at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California.

October 2023
On October 2, the Supreme Court of the United States declined to hear John Anthony Castro's case to disqualify Donald Trump from appearing on the ballot.

On October 9, former Representative Will Hurd withdrew from the race.

On October 17, judge for the United States District Court for the District of Columbia, Tanya S. Chutkan, issued a gag order on Donald Trump from targeting prosecutors, court staff or “any reasonably foreseeable witness” marking the first time in U.S. history where the speech of a presidential candidate was limited by the courts.

On October 20, businessman Perry Johnson suspended his campaign. Judge Chutkan lifted the gag order on Donald Trump to allow Trump's legal team to appeal the order.

On October 26, former talk radio show host Larry Elder suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump.

On October 28, former Vice President of the United States Mike Pence suspended his campaign.

On October 30, Judge Chutkan reinstated the gag order on Donald Trump.

November 2023
On November 3, the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit lifted the gag order on Donald Trump until at least November 20, when oral arguments for or against the gag order would be heard by a three judge panel.

On November 6, the RNC announced that the following candidates qualified for the third presidential debate; Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie and Tim Scott. The criteria to qualify for the third debate were having more than 70,000 unique donations and polling at 4% or better in national polls and local polls in Iowa or New Hampshire.

On November 8, the third Republican presidential debate took place in Miami, Florida. Donald Trump did not participate.

On November 12, Tim Scott, U.S. Senator from South Carolina, dropped out of the race.

On November 20, the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit reached a compromise between Trump and Chutkan, issuing a narrow gag order preventing Trump from "insulting" prosecutors, court personnel and potential witnesses, but allowing him to speak freely about outside counsel and issues relating to his presidential campaign.

On November 30, DeSantis debated Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom.

December 2023
On December 4, Governor of North Dakota Doug Burgum announced his withdrawal from the race.

On December 6, the fourth Republican presidential debate took place at the University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Christie, DeSantis, Haley, Ramaswamy and Trump all met the donor and polling criteria. Trump again skipped the event.

On December 19, 2023, after a 4-3 ruling by the Colorado Supreme Court, Colorado became the first to disqualify former President Donald Trump from its primary ballot under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. Trump remained on the ballot pending an appeal. The Colorado Republican Party is considering holding a caucus in place of the state-sanctioned primary if the decision stands.

On December 22, CBS reported that Donald Trump was inquiring within his campaign and with his allies over the possibility of tapping Nikki Haley for his running mate. This came shortly after a poll which showed Haley in second place in Iowa with 29% to Trump's 44%. In response, senior members of the Trump circle, including Donald Trump Jr., Roger Stone, and Tucker Carlson, all rejected the idea.

On December 28, Maine followed Colorado in prohibiting former President Trump from appearing on their ballots, though it was stayed pending an appeal.

On December 29, an effort in Virginia to prohibit former President Trump from appearing on their ballots by two social justice activists, Roy Perry-Bey and Carlos Howard, was dismissed by Leonie Brinkema, judge of the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia, due to the pair lacking standing to sue Trump under Virginia law.

January 2024
On January 5, the Supreme Court agreed to hear Trump's appeal of his removal from the Colorado ballot.

On January 9, Gloria Navarro, judge for the United States District Court for the District of Nevada, rejected an effort in Nevada to block former President Trump from appearing on the state's ballots by John Anthony Castro. Navarro stated that Castro, a resident of Texas who cited the 14th Amendment in the case, does not have the standing to sue Trump under Nevada law. The point was largely moot, as the lawsuit would have barred Trump from appearing on the Nevada primary. Trump and the Nevada Republican Party had boycotted the state-organized primary in favor of a GOP-organized caucus.

On January 10, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie withdrew from the race. The fifth Republican presidential debate was held at Drake University in Des Moines, hosted by CNN. The requirements to attend were: finishing in the top three in local polls in Iowa, and be polling at at least 10% in both national and local polls. The three candidates that qualified were Trump, Haley, and DeSantis. Trump again did not participate, leaving the debate solely between Haley and DeSantis. Continuing his counterprogramming strategy, Trump instead appeared at a town hall with Fox News. Ramaswamy hosted a podcast interview with podcaster Tim Pool and Candace Owens after not qualifying for the debate.

On January 14, North Dakota governor and withdrawn candidate Doug Burgum endorsed former President Donald Trump for president.

On January 15, Donald Trump won the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses. Following the caucuses, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy withdrew from the race and endorsed Trump.

On January 16, former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson suspended his campaign. Later that same day, ABC announced it was canceling its debate scheduled for January 18, citing the fact that both Haley and Trump refused to attend.

On January 17, the seventh Republican presidential debate that was to be held at St. Anselm College in Goffstown, New Hampshire on January 21, was cancelled by CNN.

On January 21, Florida governor Ron DeSantis suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump.

On January 23, Donald Trump won the 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary.

February 2024
On February 4, Donald Trump, while speaking during an interview with Fox News, discussed his potential VP pick, outlining a list of criteria the candidate has to meet and suggesting Tim Scott and Kristi Noem as two examples.

On February 6, the 2024 Nevada Republican presidential primary took place. The primary was boycotted by the Nevada Republican Party in favor of the 2024 Nevada Republican presidential caucuses. As a consequence, Trump was not a candidate in the primary, while Haley was not in the caucus. Haley, while losing the primary to None of These Candidates, was declared the official winner.

On February 8, Trump won the 2024 Nevada Republican presidential caucuses and the 2024 United States Virgin Islands Republican presidential caucuses.

On February 24, Trump won the 2024 South Carolina Republican presidential primary.

On February 27, the 2024 Michigan Republican presidential primary will take place.

March 2024
From March 1 to 3, the D.C. primary will take place.

On March 2, the Idaho, Michigan and Missouri caucuses will take place.

On March 4, the North Dakota caucuses will take place.

On March 5, Super Tuesday will take place, consisting of the Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia primaries, alongside the Utah caucuses.

On March 8, the American Samoa caucuses will take place.

On March 9, the Guam caucuses will take place.

On March 12, the Georgia, Mississippi, and Washington primaries will take place, alongside the Hawaii caucuses.

On March 15, the Northern Mariana Islands caucuses will take place.

On March 19, the Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, and Ohio primaries will take place.

On March 23, the Louisiana primary will take place.

Eligibility
Trump's eligibility to run for president has been disputed. On December 19, 2023, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled in Anderson v. Griswold that he was ineligible under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment due to his role in the January 6, 2021, United States Capitol attack. Trump will remain on the ballot pending an appeal. The Colorado Republican Party is considering holding a caucus in place of the state-sanctioned primary if the decision stands. On December 28, 2023, Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows ruled that Trump was ineligible, also citing section 3 of the 14th Amendment. However, Bellows stayed her own ruling pending the results of a challenge in court.

Ballot access
Main article: 2024 Republican Party presidential candidates § Ballot_access

Debates
Main article: 2024 Republican Party presidential debates and forums

The first Republican debate was held on August 23, 2023, hosted by Fox News and moderated by Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum. To be eligible for the debate, a candidate must have polled with at least 1% of voter support, received donations from 40,000 individuals, and signed a loyalty pledge to back whoever ultimately wins the party presidential nomination. Doug Burgum, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson, Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Tim Scott all qualified for the first debate. Donald Trump gave an interview with Tucker Carlson during the same time slot.

The second Republican debate was held on September 27, in Simi Valley, California, at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. The requirements were similar to the first debate, but increased the number of individual donors required to 50,000 and required the candidates to poll at or above three percent in two national polls or in one national poll and two "early state" polls. Seven candidates were invited to the second debate: Burgum, Christie, DeSantis, Haley, Pence, Ramaswamy, and Scott.

The third debate was held in Miami, Florida, on November 8. The donor threshold for the third debate increases to 70,000 unique donors, including 200 donors in 20 or more states, while the polling threshold increases to four percent in two national polls or four percent in one national poll and four percent in two statewide polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina. Christie, DeSantis, Haley, Ramaswamy, and Scott qualified for the third debate.

A fourth debate was held in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, on December 6. The donor threshold increased to 80,000 unique donors, while the polling threshold increased to six percent in two national polls, or six percent in one national poll and six percent in two polls from different states among Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina. DeSantis, Ramaswamy, Haley and Christie qualified for this debate.

The fifth debate took place in Des Moines, Iowa on January 10, 2024, and was hosted by CNN and moderated by Jake Tapper and Dana Bash.

As mentioned above, the scheduled sixth debate, meant to occur on January 18, 2024, in Goffstown, New Hampshire, hosted by ABC, was cancelled two days prior.

Endorsements
Main article: Endorsements in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries

Opinion polling
Main articles: Nationwide opinion polling for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries and Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries

Maps

 * Popular vote by county for each candidate.

Campaign finance
Main article: Fundraising in the 2024 United States presidential election

This is an overview of the money used by each campaign as it is reported to the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Totals raised include individual contributions, loans from the candidate, and transfers from other campaign committees. Individual contributions are itemized (catalogued) by the FEC when the total value of contributions by an individual comes to more than $200. The last column, Cash On Hand, shows the remaining cash each campaign had available for its future spending as of December 31, 2023. Campaign finance reports for the first quarter of 2024 will become available on March 30, 2024.

This table does not include contributions made to Super PACs or party committees supporting the candidate. Each value is rounded up to the nearest dollar.

Candidate who withdrew prior to December 31

Candidate who withdrew following December 31

Timing
Republican Party rules mandate that changes to all contest dates must occur by September 2023, and there appears to be a trend of contests being scheduled earlier than usual. They specify that all must occur between March and June 11, 2024 – except for Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina – which are allowed to hold contests in February. Iowa chose to hold its caucus the earliest in over a decade, on a federal holiday – January 15 – as the rules are not legally binding.

New Hampshire is expected in late January, a result of state law requiring it to be held at least a week prior to other primaries. Nevada is expected on February 6, with South Carolina on February 24 and Michigan on February 27. The bulk of contests will be concentrated in March, as in previous presidential primaries.

Nevada controversy
After the 2020 presidential election, the Democratic-controlled Nevada Legislature moved to establish a presidential primary for the Republican and Democratic parties. Previously, party-organized caucuses were used in Nevada to determine delegates in presidential elections.

In May 2023, the Nevada Republican Party sued the state of Nevada in an effort to continue the use of caucuses as the means to determine its delegate allocation. It was stated in a court filing from the Nevada Attorney General's office that the Nevada Republican Party was allowed to choose between a primary or caucus, since the primary is non-binding and because state law does not mandate specific rules governing how political parties are to choose its candidate for president.

On August 14, 2023, the Nevada Republican Party announced it would hold its caucuses on February 8, while the February 6 state primary will not be binding.

Michigan controversy
The Michigan primary will take place two weeks early, on February 27, 2024 – if its legislature adjourns as expected a month early by November 29, 2023. Michigan legislature laws not passed with a supermajority go into effect 90 days after the adjournment of its session.

The Michigan primaries were originally scheduled to be held in March and thus in accordance with Republican rules, but Democrats, who are in control of the Michigan legislature and governorship after the 2022 midterm elections, decided to move up both primaries as part of their own 2024 presidential delegate selection plan. As a result, the earlier date of February 27 violates Republican rules – which state that only Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina can vote earlier than March 1, 2024.[citation needed]

Should they go forward with their earlier primary, Michigan Republicans face a harsh penalty of having up to 90% of their delegates stripped. Republicans in Michigan have criticized Democrats in Michigan for their unilateral move; as of June 2023, they were considering boycotting the earlier primary and holding a party-run caucus in March 2024.

Delegates
There will be an estimated total of 2,467 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention. In contests until March 15, delegates must be awarded on a proportional basis, either by percentage of statewide vote or share of congressional districts won. Some states have established thresholds between 4 and 20% for proportionality to kick in, under which a candidate receives no delegates. A vast majority, 41 contests totaling 1,920 delegates, operate this way using methods that are hybrid between proportionality and majority-take-all. New York for example has a 20% threshold for proportionality but if a candidate wins a majority, they take all delegates.[better source needed]

North Dakota, Wyoming, American Samoa, Guam, Virgin Islands, and 51 of Pennsylvania's 67 delegates are unpledged (free to vote for anyone at the convention), totaling 119. Florida, New Jersey, Ohio, Colorado, Arizona, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Montana's delegates are strictly awarded on a plurality-take-all basis, totaling 428. It will be possible for a candidate to take all 928 delegates of 19 contests by simply winning a threshold of votes.[better source needed]

By Super Tuesday, over 40% of delegates will have been awarded, and most by March 19. Republican Party rules mandate changes to delegate allocation methods happen by September 30. The primaries will conclude with a final vote on the nominee by a majority of delegates, at the newly elected Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, which will be held July 15–18.[better source needed]

Candidate filing deadlines
As of August 2023, at least 20 states have announced their filing deadlines for presidential candidates seeking the nomination of their party in order to appear on the state's ballots. Between September 1 and October 15, 2023, Nevada has the nation's first filing window and deadline for its February 8, 2024, presidential caucus. The filing window for the New Hampshire primary will be between October 11–27. 13 additional states, including populous California and Texas, have filing deadlines by December 22, 2023.[better source needed]