User:Doc James/Mortality


 * COVID19 (7 day average 11,150)


 * Total COVID19 deaths 2,712,000


 * Pneumonia (2,558,600/365 = 7,010)


 * Lung cancer (1,883,100/365 = 5159)


 * Tuberculosis (1,183,000/365 = 3,241)


 * HIV/AIDS (954,500/365 = 2,615)


 * Hepatitis B (799,000/365 = 2,189)


 * Suicide (793,000/365 = 2,173)


 * Shigellosis (700,000/365 = 1,918)


 * Seasonal flu (290,000 up to 650,000/365 = 1781)


 * Malaria (619,800/365 = 1,698)


 * 2009 flu pandemic (Swine flu) (363,500/365 = 996)


 * Meningitis (288,000/365 = 789 )


 * Rotavirus (215,000/365 = 589)


 * Norovirus (200,000/365 = 548)


 * Typhoid (116,800/365 = 320)


 * Measles (95,300/365 = 261)


 * Whooping cough (91,800/365 = 252 )


 * Dengue fever (40,500/365 = 111)


 * Cholera (28,800/365 = 79)


 * Hepatitis A (18,600/365 = 51)


 * Rabies (11,700/365 = 32)


 * Leishmaniasis (7,500/365 = 21)


 * Total deaths per day 153,274 (COVID19 is 6.9% of deaths)

US deaths
In 2017 2,813,503/365 = 7,709 people died in the USA per day. In the USA 2,482 people died from COVID19 on Apr 15st (32% of all deaths).

Why the WSJ is wrong
On March 24th the WSJ published a claim that "the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%" or maybe even "a mortality rate of 0.01%".

Lombardy
We, however, already have a clear lower possible limit of mortality in a Western population in Lombardy (population 10 million). So far there has been 14,745 deaths there. That means the absolute lowest possible mortality is 0.15% (14,745/10,078,012).

This lowest possible mortality requires:


 * 1) No further people to die in this region, ie all 25,392 known active cases including 1,324 severe cases survive.
 * 2) Everyone who is not an active case has already gotten the disease and either recovered or is asymptomatic.
 * 3) All the people who died in Lombardy without having a diagnosis of COVID-19, died from something that wasn't COVID-19.

This means for the mortality to be:


 * 0.4%: 25% of the Lombardy needs to have been infected and not diagnosed or 2.5 million (49 out of 50 not diagnosed)
 * 1%: 10% of Lombardy or 1 million (19 out of 20 not diagnosed)
 * 4%: 2.5% of Lombardy or 250,000 (4 out of 5 not diagnosed)

Currently diagnosed cases is 53,414 (Apr 8th)

Others
Castiglione d'Adda As of April 1st 67 to 80 out of 4,500 residents of this town were dead from the disease (1.5 to 1.8%). Age distribution is here.

New York City 19,626 deaths / 8,398,748 people = 0.23% (NYC gives 0.18%), Bronx's (3,487/1,418,207=0.25%)

Gangelt 43 dead out of 42,000 people = 0.1%

China
China's outbreak is nearly over as of March 31th. We have 81,518 cases, 3,305 deaths, and 2,161 active cases with 528 still seriously or critically sick. The chance that China is underestimating the number of cases is fairly equal to the chance that they are underestimating the number of deaths.

3,305/81,518 = 4%, (3,305+518)/81,518 = 4.7%

Keep in mind that about 6% of the population of China is over the age of 70. Compared to 16% in Italy and 10% in the USA. Also keep in mind that China send >20,000 healthcare workers and build >3,600 hospital beds in the city most affected thus keeping their from being a full on healthcare collapse.

Diamond Princess
Nearly everyone on the Diamond Princess was tested and 712 cases were found (145 crew and 567 passengers). Of these cases 12 have died and 82 remain infected with 10 in critical condition.

14/712 = 2%, (14+4)/712 = 2.5%

Yes the population on the ship was likely older (an average of 69 for the passengers) but the crew was an average of 36 years old. The passengers were also likely healthier for their age and wealthier. Additionally they had access to unlimited healthcare. One concern with this data is some deaths may have been missed.