User:Fadix/Ottoman Armenian Population

The Armenian population waiting the Ottoman Empire in 1914-1915 is a controversial topic, most estimations range range from 1.5 million to over 2.5 million. According to researchers, establishing the Ottoman Armenian population is as well very important to have an accurate estimation of the Armenian losses between 1915 to 1923 during what is called the Armenian genocide and what followed as the Turkish war of independence. This article present some statistics of the Armenian population within the Ottoman Empire.

The Ottoman statistics
The Ottoman statistics, called as well Ottoman census has been used by an American demographer and Ottoman expert, professor Justin McCarthy who mostly relied on those “census” to draw the Armenian population within the Ottoman Empire. The records McCarthy mostly bases himself on are those of 1911-1912, ,1905 and 1895/96. By using the Ottoman records of population and applying the population stability theory by using the men half pyramid, he provided the figures of 1,698,301.1

While McCarthy numbers are the result of extensive studies, they have been highly contested by many specialists. Some of them, like Frédéric Paulin, have severely criticized McCarthy's methodology and suggested them to be flawed methodologically.2 Hilmar Kaiser3 another specialist has made similar claims. In the same direction, professor Vahakn N. Dadrian4 and professor Levon Marashlian.5

The critics not only question McCarthy's methodology and calculation, but as well his primary source which were the Ottoman said “censuses.” They point out to the fact that there was no official statistic census in 1912, but they were rather based on the records of 1905 which were conducted during Abdul Hamid reign.6

The “Censuses” conducted under Abdul Hamid regime
It is the fact that the 1912 records are based on a “census” that was conducted under the Hamidian regime that according to the critics, makes it dubious. Turkish records as well suggest that Abdul Hamid might have intentionally undercounted the Armenian population.

The Turkish author Kâz&#305;m Kadri for instance writes: “During the reign of Abdul Hamid we lowered the population figures of the Armenians...” He as well add: “By the order of Abdul Hamid the number of the Armenians deliberately had been put in low figures.”7

Other evidences suggest such undercounts as to cut in half the actual Armenian population. In the district of Mus(compromising Mus plain, Sassoun, and the counties of Mus) for example, the Armenian official in charge of the census was Garabed Potigian, who presented the official figures as 225,000 Armenians and 55,000 Turks, upon the insistence of his Turkish superiors he was forced to reduce the Armenian population to 105,000 and increase the Turkish population to 95,000.8 Lynch himself report similar incidences: “Pursuing our way, we meet an Armenian priest—a young, broad-shouldered, open-faced man. He seems inclined to speak, so we ask him how many churches there may be in Mush(Mus). He answers, seven; but the commissary had said four. A soldier addresses him in Kurdish; the poor fellow turns pale, and remarks that he was mistaken in saying seven; there cannot be more than four ...Such are a few of our experiences during our short sojourn at Mush.”9

Abdul Hamid has even considered in 1895 during the “census” period, the under evaluation presented to him of 900,000 as exaggeration...10 but apparently they have settled to the figures we know as the Ottoman census.

The German chief of staff of the Ottoman Third Army, Colonel Felix Guse, complained that "The Turks knew only poorly their country, on top of that the possibility of getting reliable statistical figures was out of the question."11

Fa'iz El-Ghusein the Kaimakam of Kharpout wrote in his book, that according to the Ottoman official statistics there were about 1,9 million Armenian's in the Ottoman Empire.12

Another indication that other statistics might have existed is that Polybius in his book published in 1919, refer to a said “Ottoman Official Census of 1910.”13 But Justin McCarthy has questioned the information and considered it fabrication.14

The Turkish historian Dr. Secil Akgun, claimed: “The Ottomans do not have a definite number. That is, we have in our hands contradictory numbers regarding the Armenian population within the borders of the Ottoman Empire. I would think that Basmac&#305;yan gives the most accurate number. This is to be between two and three million.”15

In short, even though the Ottoman records were official data, and that few Western specialists and most Turkish specialists rely on them, most Western scholars ignore those data, because according to them they were unreliable.

Armenian Patriarchate figures
Various Armenian Patriarchate figures were presented, but one of those that seemed the most complete was published in Marcel Léart (Krikor Zohrab) book.16 It is said that the records were supposedly based on records of baptisms and deaths kept by the ecclesiastical officials. Those figures though excluded the regions where Armenian population was not considerable, as well as excluded the areas outside of the six vilayets.

The problem with such numbers, is that there has been no records of whatever or not the statistics were really based on baptisms and deaths certificates kept by the ecclesiastical officials. For those reason, Justin McCarthy and few other Western scholars as well as most Turkish specialists believe them to be fabrication. Just for comparison, the Patriarchate Statistics of Armenian's in the “Six Vilayets” known as Ottoman Armenia, there was a reported 1,018,000 Armenian's against 784,914 for the Ottoman figures.

The Armenian Patriarchate figures revisited.
Another set of Armenian Patriarchate figures were published in 1913. Armenian sources records for this statistic have more ground than the first one in that they are based on actual archival records. In 1992, Raymond H. Kevorkian and Paul B. Paboudjian have published a work which present “precision” to the last digit, for each Ottoman provinces from the Armenian archives. For the figure of the entire Ottoman population, those records indicate 1,914,62017 closely matching with the Ottoman statistics for the Western part of the Ottoman, but divert in the Eastern zone, where the Ottoman statistics are suspected to have considerably undercounted the Armenian population. And even in some instances, the actual Ottoman counts after McCarthys correction were higher in some regions than those statistics, indicating that those figures might have been possibly a serious records and might have under-counted Armenian's in some instances.

Western records
There has been various Western records representing the Armenian population, but demographical figures representing the total Armenian population within the Ottoman Empire were few.

Vital Cuinet a French geographer that was charged to survey areas and count their population. His figures were also used to establish the ability of the Ottoman Empire to pay its debts, Cuinet eager to get precise numbers was finaly forced to conclude that it was not possible to get them, he gives two main reasons for this.

1-  The limitations imposed by the Turkish authorities made his researches inconclusive.

2-  Because of the lack of control of the Turkish authorities for farther provinces, it was impossible for him to complete his work.

An example often referred by the critics, was Cuinet's statistics drawn from Turkish authority numbers and information that they provided him regarding the Vilayet of Aleppo (classified in those works as the sandjak of Marash). The number is an impossible 4,300. While only in the city of Marash the Catholic and Protestant Armenians were numbering 6008, and this without including the Gregorians.

Cuinet at the beginning of his work, cautioned the reader by declaring: "The science of statistics so worthy and interesting, not only still is not used in this country but even the authorities refuses, with a party line, to accept any investigation."

Regardless of what could have been considered as an indirect admission of under counting. Cuinet presented 840,000 for 1891-92, of what was called “Armenian Villayet” a figure higher than the one presented from Ottoman statistics.18

Henry Finnis Bloss Lynch a British geographer-ethnographer followed by his own studies, he came with 1,058,000 for the beginning of 1890s for “Turkish Armenia.” Lynch indirectly reported as well, like Cuinet, a deliberate Ottoman policy of under counting. Nonetheless, Lynch figures were well worked around, but he as well cautioned the reader regarding the misleading character of the term “Muslim” since many Armenian's converted and were counted as Muslim, while they were still in practice Armenian Christians.19

The British official figures at the embassy were relied upon careful investigations like those of Lynch, when comparing those figures with Ottoman figures Zamir concludes: "the provinces of Van, Bitlis, Mamuretal-Aziz (Harput), Diyarbekir, Erzerum, and the independent district of Maras, where British figures are 62 percent higher (847,000) compared with 523,065.” For those reasons he was forced to conclude: “The understatement of the non-Moslem figures appears to be intentional."20

The German professor, Herman Wambery, whom was recognized as a Turcophile, and supposedly had good connection with Turkish authorities presented as figures for Turkish Armenia: 1,130,000 in 1896.21

Samuel Cox at the American Embassy in Istanbul from 1880 to 1886, estimated the Armenian population within the empire to be of 2,4 million.22

The problem with such figures is that they do not cover the same regions. For instance, many time “Anatolia” is equalled with the Ottoman empire, other times there are partial statistics, representing one region, like Turkish Armenia, Ottoman Armenia, Asiatic Turkey, Anatolia, Ottoman Empire, 6 Armenian Villeyets, 9 Armenian Villeyets etc.

Another problem with such figures, is that those numbers were drawn in a period of about 20 or even 30 years. Most from 1890 to 1915.

German official figures representing the Armenian population within the Empire was above 1,9 million, to a 2 million.23

Toynbee settle to between 1.6 to 2.0 million, and states that the real number is probably closer to 2 million. Pushing the median slightly on the right side of 1.8 million.24

Ludovic de Contenson, present the figure of 1,150,000 for Asiatic Turkey, and call them “statistics” without any sources. His numbers suggest that they might actually be the Ottoman census statistics, without correction.25

Most Western scholars when presenting the total Armenian population within the Empire to be between 1.8-2.1 million.