User:Farrell101/Outcome bias

= Outcome bias = Outcome bias is an error made in evaluating the quality of a decision when the outcome of that decision is already known. Specifically, the outcome effect occurs when the same "behavior produce[s] more ethical condemnation when it happen[s] to produce bad rather than good outcome, even if the outcome is determined by chance."

While similar to the hindsight bias, the two phenomena are markedly different. The hindsight bias focuses on memory distortion to favor the actor, while the outcome bias focuses exclusively on weighting the past outcome heavier than other pieces of information in deciding if a past decision was correct.

Effects
Decisions made under the effect of outcome bias can have multiple different drawbacks. Due to the lack of focus on cause and the emphasis on outcome, decisions made prior to the outcome are overlooked.

Logically
For example, if a well based decision is made to take a risk and the outcome is unfavorable, it is possible the valid steps taken to make the decision could be undermined. By overlooking the legitimate processes used to act on a decision, another problem arises. When a decision is in fact made without the proper analysis and turns out positively, causality for success may be assigned to the incorrect process. Assuming a process is reliable and produces favorable results, a decision made by only focusing on the outcome rather than the legitimacy of the steps taken, will allow the improper process to be repeated under false notions. For example, if a technical analyst is looking at a stock chart and decides to make a trade because it has worked in the past, they are succumbing to outcome bias. Unlike when the initial action was done, there is less focus on the foundational reasoning of the action and more emphasis on the expected outcome. This is problematic because if the process continues to be beneficial, more risk may be taken on in similar future processes.

Ethically
Overlooking the means when obtaining a positive goal can lead to misjudgments in ethics. One such field where ethics may be overlooked for results is in the corporate world. Corporations that succeed in growing to a massive scale through somewhat murky ethical decisions represent different forms of outcome bias. For example, large tech companies have gone under litigation for selling private user data. This additional source of revenue was certainly beneficial to the companies in question, however, this action is accepted as unethical. While outcome bias may appear to only effect the process of decision making, it should be clear that it also can weight heavily on how actions are perceived. For example, a study done by researchers at Carnegie Mellon University had subjects judge the morality of two different stories. In one story, a pharmacists fabricated drug trial data in order to push release and the drug proved safe. In the other, a pharmacist uses all the data at their disposal and the drug ends up hurting those who use it. Participants judged the second pharmacist more critically because of their outcome bias.