User:Foghe/W

U.S. elections, 2018     -

In the 2018 election cycle the United States Senate has been generally seen as the less disputed chamber of the Congress, due to the several races dictated by the map. Democratic incumbents are 26 (all running), while Republicans defend 9 seats in the Senate (with 3 retirements). The majority in the Senate has been usually forecast to probably be Republican, because of the polls and the states in which the People will vote, 10 out of 33 won by President Trump in 2016. Since July I am therefore predicting a Republican majority in the Senate.

The House of Representatives is expected by many observers to go with a Democratic majority in this cycle. Republicans hold a majority since January 2011, after re-capturing it in the 2010 midterm elections. Currently there are 235 Republicans, 193 Democrats, and 7 vacancies; Democrats need a 25 net gain to win the House and arrive to 218. Usually it is said that the party of the incumbent President loses the majority in this chamber during his first midterm election, but this is true only for the last two Democratic Presidents, and not for the last two Republican Presidents. In addition economical data have improved (lower unemployment, lower taxation, lower poverty), polls don't look so thrilling, and the approval rating of the President is at a record-high level, even higher than when he was inaugurated. Since July I am therefore predicting a Republican majority in the House of Representatives.

U.S. elections, 2020     -

Probably will go for President Trump, confirming the tradition of incumbent Presidents that get re-elected. Therefore I am predicting a Republican President—destined in any case to obtain a smaller amount of electoral votes than in the previous election.

The Senate will probably remain in Republican hands, due to the States in which the People will vote and the many Republican pick-ups in 2018. Therefore I am predicting a Republican majority in the Senate.

I was predicting the House to be Republican in 2018—a very difficult target actually—and then to be Democratic in 2020. In 2018 Democrats won the House, and therefore I am predicting a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives.

U.S. elections, 2022     -