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China's first test of a nuclear device took place on October 16, 1964, at the Lop Nur test site. China's last nuclear test was on July 29, 1996. According to the Australian Geological Survey Organization in Canberra, the yield of the 1996 test was 1-5 kilotons. This was China's 22nd underground test and 45th test overall.

China has made significant improvements in its miniaturization techniques since the 1980s. There have been accusations, notably by the Cox Commission, that this was done primarily by covertly acquiring the U.S.'s W88 nuclear warhead design as well as guided ballistic missile technology. Chinese scientists have stated that they have made advances in these areas, but insist that these advances were made without espionage.

The international community has debated the size of the Chinese nuclear force since the nation first acquired such technology. Because of strict secrecy it is very difficult to determine the exact size and composition of China's nuclear forces. Estimates vary over time. Several declassified U.S. government reports give historical estimates. The 1984 Defense Intelligence Agency's Defense Estimative Brief estimates the Chinese nuclear stockpile as consisting of between 150 and 160 warheads. A 1993 United States National Security Council report estimated that China's nuclear deterrent force relied on 60 to 70 nuclear armed ballistic missiles. The Defense Intelligence Agency's The Decades Ahead: 1999 - 2020 report estimates the 1999 Nuclear Weapons' Inventory as between 140 and 157. In 2004 the U.S. Department of Defense assessed that China had about 20 intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of targeting the United States. In 2006 a U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency estimate presented to the Senate Armed Services Committee was that "China currently has more than 100 nuclear warheads."



A variety of estimates abound regarding China's current stockpile. Although the total number of nuclear weapons in the Chinese arsenal is unknown, estimates vary from as low as 80 to as high as 2,000. The 2,000-warhead estimate has largely been rejected by diplomats in the field. It appears to have been derived from a 1990's-era Usenet post, in which a Singaporean college student made unsubstantiated statements concerning a supposed 2,000 warhead stockpile.

In 2004, China stated that "among the nuclear-weapon states, China... possesses the smallest nuclear arsenal," implying China has fewer than the United Kingdom's 200 nuclear weapons. Several non-official sources estimate that China has around 400 nuclear warheads. However, U.S. intelligence estimates suggest a much smaller nuclear force than many non-governmental organizations.

In 2011, high estimates of the Chinese nuclear arsenal again emerged. One three year study by Georgetown University raised the possibility that China had 3 000 nuclear weapons, hidden in a sophisticated tunnel network. The study was based on state media footage showing tunnel entrances, and estimated a 4 800 km (3 000 mile) network. The tunnel network was revealed after the 2008 Sichuan earthquake collapsed tunnels in the hills. China has confirmed the existing of the tunnel network. In response, the US military was ordered by law to study the possibility of this tunnel network concealing a nuclear arsenal. However, the tunnel theory has come under substantial attack due to several apparent flaws in its reasoning. From a production standpoint, China probably does not have enough fissile material to produce 3,000 nuclear weapons. Such an arsenal would require 9-12 tons of Plutonium as well as 45-75 tons of Enriched uranium and a substantial amount of Tritium. The Chinese are estimated to have only 2 tons of weapons grade plutonium, which limits their arsenal to 450-600 weapons, despite a 16 ton disposable supply of uranium, theoretically enough for 1,000 warheads. Additionally, the PRC's supply of Tritium limits its stockpile to around 300 weapons.

In 2012, A retired Russian officer, Viktor Yesin, stated that the Chinese arsenal was at 1,800 nuclear weapons. Yesin's statements, however, have incited backlash. His claims may have originated from the same Usenet post that previous dubious assertions of 2,000 or more nuclear warheads stemmed from.

As of 2011, the Chinese nuclear arsenal was estimated to contain 55-65 ICBM's. The 2013 report entitled Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China stated that the Chinese nuclear arsenal consists of 50-75 ICBM's, located in both land-based silo's and Ballistic missile submarine platforms.

In 2012, STRATCOM commander C. Robert Kehler said that the best estimates where "in the range of several hundred" warheads and FAS estimated the current total to be "approximately 240 warheads".