User:HRIN/Sandbox

The 2012 Doomsday Prediction is a cultural phenomenon rooted in contemporary speculation about imminent cataclysmic events with the potential for incapacitating modern civilization. Fueled by numerous books, internet sites and several documentaries airing on the History Channel since 2006, the apocalyptic forecast draws its inspiration from three primary sources:


 * Warnings from climate experts and other environmental scientists that the earth is approaching a "tipping point" that will generate mass extinctions of species.
 * Legends, scripture and prophecies.
 * The approaching end date of the 5,125-year Mayan Long Count calendar, which is December 21, 2012.

In addition, some proponents of the doomsday premise claim ancient Mayan astronomers were aware of a rare alignment of the earth, sun and center of the Milky Way occurring on the December solstice in 2012. Because the alignment is tied to the precession of the equinoxes, it heralds a transition from one world age to another. A spiritual and/or physical transformation of the planet and its inhabitants will accompany this shift.

Most mainstream academics dismiss the doomsday interpretation of the Long Count calendar end-date and galactic alignment theory. Those versed in the classical Mayan civilization insist the date 12/21/2012 simply marks a resetting of the calendar to Baktun 13.0.0.0.0. They accuse 2012 book authors of disseminating unsubstantiated claims that denigrate a significant Mesoamerican culture. Many of the assertions about have also been challenged.

Historical Context
At least 30 civilizations around the globe divide the time span of human civilization into four world ages, or Ages of Man. According to various legends, scriptures and treatises, a world age typically ends with a global cataclysm that causes the near extinction of humans.

In India, an ancient Buddhist and Hindu astronomical treatise known as the Surya Siddhanta predicts that a golden age will follow the end of Kali Yuga (a.k.a. the "Degenerate Age"), which is the present era of mankind. Another Vedic text, theVishnu Purana, elaborates further:

"The four ages are the Krita, Treta, Dwápara, and Kali; comprehending together twelve thousand years of the gods. There are infinite successions of these four ages, of a similar description, the first of which is always called the Krita, and the last the Kali. In the first, the Krita, is that age which is created by Brahmá; in the last, which is the Kali age, a dissolution of the world occurs."

In the eight century B.C., the Greek poet Hesiod explains in The Works and the Days that Kronos and Zeus obliterated three "generations" of men due to their bad behavior and insubordination to the gods, then planted a new generation in their place.

In North America, Hopi Mythology depicts the first three world ages ending in destructive cataclysms. The first world succumbs to heat and fire. The second experiences a catastrophic pole shift and onset of an ice age. According to the myth:

""Stuknang commanded the twins, Pojanghoya and Palongawhoya, to leave their posts at the north and south ends of the world's axis, where they were stationed to keep the earth properly rotating. The twins had hardly abandoned their stations when the world, with no one to control it, teetered off balance, spun around crazily, then rolled over twice. Mountains plunged into seas with a great splash, seas and lakes sloshed over the land; and as the world spun through cold and lifeless space it froze into solid ice."

The third world of the Hopi is wiped out by a catastrophic storm and flooding. In each case, a small group of evacuees follows the instructions of a Hopi god to evacuate or prepare for the mass extinction event in advance. At the dissolution of the first two worlds, the survivors take refuge deep inside a mountain. In the closing days of the third world, the evacuees are told to build a vessel that would weather the flooding of the planet.

Because the Long Count calendar begins with the birth of the Maya's Zapotec and Olmec ancestors on August 13, 3114 B.C., the 5125-year calendar is thought to represent a single world age. similar time span encompasses the period of recorded history in western civilization. The first cuneiform writing found in Mesopotamia is dated to around 3000 B.C., while the pyramid builders ancient Egypt is thought to have first appeared around 2800 B.C.

Evidence of Past Doomsdays
Scores of cultures occupying on every continent, including the Inuit in the Arctic, recount a legend about a Great Flood.

In the Old Testament, Noah is instructed by Yahweh to build an ark and seal it with pitch before loading it with animals, cattle and humans. After 40 days of torrential rains and another six additional months at sea, the ark makes landfall. As in the case of the Hopis, many flood myths involve the construction of a vessel and extended voyage at sea.

Climatologists, oceanographers and geologists have proposed various theories to account for these legends. In 1998, Columbia University Professors Walter Pittman and William Ryan presented the Black Sea deluge theory. Under this scenario, an earthen dam collapsed along the Bosporus in 5600 B.C., flooding the densely populated Black Sea basin. The dam was overrun as a result of quickly rising sea levels in the Mediterranean.

Another theory offered by the Holocene Impact Working Group alleges that a comet struck the Indian Ocean in 2800 B.C. The impact generated a mega-tsunami that wiped out the most 80 percent of the human population.

Several millennia earlier, around 10000 B.C., the sprawling Clovis population of North America vanished suddenly, leaving behind artifacts in nearly every U.S. state, Canada and Mexico. While a definitive cause for the extinction remains undetermined, recent theories point to the Younger Dryas climate shift or an asteroid impact above the Laurentide Ice Sheet, north of the Great Lakes. Both disturbances occurred around 10900 B.C. and may be inter-connected.

Prophecies
In the 1940s, members of the Hopi warned that of a series of global catastrophes was imminent, foreshadowing the end of the fourth world. A third world war, geologic upheaval, hotter temperatures, drought and famine would all contribute to the apocalypse. This prediction was integrated into an older legend and is nowadays commonly known as the Hopi Prophecy. Several omens will presage the final days, including a "spider web crisscrossing the earth" and the appearance of a blue star.

"And this is the Ninth and Last Sign: You will hear of a dwelling-place in the heavens, above the earth, that shall fall with a great crash. It will appear as a blue star. Very soon after this, the ceremonies of my people will cease. These are the Signs that great destruction is coming. The world shall rock to and fro. The white man will battle against other people in other lands -- with those who possessed the first light of wisdom. There will be many columns of smoke and fire such as White Feather has seen the white man make in the deserts not far from here. Only those which come will cause disease and a great dying. Many of my people, understanding the prophecies, shall be safe. Those who stay and live in the places of my people also shall be safe. Then there will be much to rebuild. And soon -- very soon afterward -- Pahana will return. He shall bring with him the dawn of the Fifth World. He shall plant the seeds of his wisdom in their hearts. Even now the seeds are being planted. These shall smooth the way to the Emergence into the Fifth World."

In South America, a small community of Q'ero Indians have also predicted the end of the fourth world. These reclusive descendents of the Incas were discovered by anthropologist Alberto Villoldoin in Cuzco, Peru in 1949. The Q'ero believe the world is approaching the time of a universal "mastay", or gathering. Severe geologic disturbances will precede this reintegration of cultures dispersed around "the four directions".

Ancient prophecies commonly considered relevant to modern times include:


 * The Revelation, by John of Patmos.


 * The Sibylline Books.


 * The Quatrains and Lost Book of Nostradamus


 * Terrence Mckenna's Timewave Zero interpretation of the I Ching

Two Medieval works, Mother Shipton's Prophecies (a.k.a. Ursula Southeil) and the predictions of Merlin (a.k.a. Myrddin Wyllt) have never been authenticated and are generally dismissed as hoaxes.

Scientific Forecasts
Among the world's leading experts on global warming, NASA atmospheric scientist James Hansen has argued since the 1980's that the earth is approaching a "tipping point". An irreversible warming trend could set into motion catastrophic flooding, the release of deadly methane gas from permafrost, severe weather, reduced agricultural yields and a mass extinction of species.

Hansen also argues that predicted sea level rise for the 21st century may be grossly underestimated. In a 2007 paper, he and several co-authors criticized a report from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that forecast a rise of at most 59 cm. The actual figure could go as high as 25 meters. This rate represents the amount of sea rise for a similar period of warming that transpired three million years ago. The paper continues:

"Civilization developed during a period of unusual climate stability, the Holocene, now almost 12,000 years in duration. That period is about to end."

On another front, solar physicists predict the upcoming the peak in the sunspot cycle will produce larger than normal coronal mass ejections. The peak is anticipated in the years 2011 and 2012, generating solar flares with the capacity to knock out power grids and disable orbiting satellites (including military surveillance equipment). While a global warning system is in place to monitor solar activity, the stronger ejections have the ability to reach the earth within 30 minutes. Outlining his concerns in a 2004 study, solar physicist Sami Solanki, noted that "Except possibly for a few brief peaks, the Sun is more active currently than at any time in the past 11,000 years." Solanki directs the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research.

In other disciplines, scientists are warning of a potential eruption of the massive Yellowstone Caldera, declining strength in the earth's magnetic field causing a reversal of the north/south magnetic poles, and dangerous interstellar radiation entering the heliosphere due to a reduction of solar wind.

Precession and Alignment Theory
In the solar system, gravity causes the sun and planets to share the same plane of orbit. In the night sky, this plane is known as the ecliptic. The twelve Zodiac constellations move along or near the ecliptic, and over time, appear to recede counterclockwise one degree every 72 years - that is, from our perspective looking up from the ground. This movement is attributed to a slight wobble in the earth's axis as it spins. As a result, approximately every 2160 years, the constellation visible on the early morning of the spring equinox changes. This signals the end of one astrological age (currently the Age of Pisces) and the beginning of another (Age of Aquarius). Over the course of 26,000 years, the precession of the equinoxes makes one full circuit around the ecliptic.

This phenomenon underlies the principle of galactic alignment, a rarely occurring intersection of the earth, sun and galactic equator. The next alignment happens to coincide with the end of the Long Count calendar on the December solstice in 2012. Former software engineer John Major Jenkins is credited with the premise that the classical Mayans anticipated this event and celebrated it as the harbinger of a profound spiritual transition for mankind. During the heyday of the culture from 500 to 900 A.D., a ritual ball game was played in which two teams battled to kick the ancient equivalent of a soccer ball through a stone ring mounted on a wall. The wall was located at midfield along one sideline, at roughly the same height as a basketball hoop. Scoring a goal symbolized man's returning to the womb of the "cosmic mother", who resides in the "dark rift" at the center of the galaxy.

Like many non-western cultures, the Mayans view time as a cycle rather than a random linear progression. Galactic alignments occur on a solstice or equinox once every quarter-precession cycle (approximately 6,500 years), which suggests the universally held notion of the "four seasons of man" may be tied to the precession of the equinoxes. Just as astrology uses the positions of stars and planets to predict the future, the Mayans plotted their calendars with the objective of preparing for significant world events.

Criticism
Most university astronomers and other researchers specializing in Mayan studies reject the galactic alignment theory. There is no evidence in the archaeological record to demonstrate that the classical Mayan civilization attached any apocalyptic significance to the completion of the Long Count calendar. The claims of Jenkins and other amateur history sleuths are considered speculative at best. Astronomers like Susan Milbrath have accused Jenkins and other amateur history detectives of exploiting Mayan culture to advance political or personal agendas. Moreover, since the nucleus of the Milky Way cannot be identified without high-powered telescopes, the Mayans could not have been aware of its location. The alignment in question takes place over a 36-year period, corresponding to the diameter of the sun, with the most precise convergence having already occurred without incident in 1998.

Dissemination
Interest in the 2012 Doomsday Prediction has spread in recent years as a result of several programs airing on the History Channel, a groundswell of internet sites and blogs, and numerous books on the subject. A new movie called 2012, directed by Roland Emmerich and starring John Cusick, is scheduled for release in 2009. It's the latest action film premised on the world ending in the early 21st century. Emmerich directed Independence Day and The Day After Tomorrow.