User:Img22/Impacts of shipping emissions on health

Background
The significant growth of world trade dates back to the early 1960s. According to the World Trade Organization, the volume of world trade today is approximately 4000% of the volume in 1960. Transportation by sea contributes to 80% of all goods transported worldwide which equates to 10 billion tonnes of cargo annually.

Several authors such as Toscano (2023) have examined the consequential impact of shipping-related emissions on local and global air pollution. The most prominent pollutants which are emitted by shipping are sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), black carbon (BC), carbon dioxide (CO2), primary and secondary particular matter (PM10 and PM2.5) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs). Shipping has previously been linked to roughly 15% of global anthropogenic NOx emissions and between 5-8% of global SOx emissions.

The engines used in maritime shipping are commonly large diesel engines which use heavy fuel oil (HFO); These engines produce significant levels of air pollutants which include nitrogen oxides (NOx) and sulphur oxides (SOx) that are claimed to worsen air quality across coastal areas. It is argued that both nitrogen oxides and sulphur oxides are involved in the process of forming PM2.5, an atmospheric particular matter that has a diameter which is less than or equal (>) to 2.5 μm. PM2.5 has been linked to cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and mortality in humans.

Impacts on human health
It has previously been discovered that approximately 91% of the world’s population live in a location where the air quality levels are unacceptable under WHO guidelines. Air pollution has been linked to circa 7 million deaths around the world each year.

In the most recent decades, efforts have been made to restrict shipping emissions in order to reduce deaths linked to shipping related emissions. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) established the Global Sulphur Cap 2020 in October 2016, which was set to be implemented on 1 January 2020. The Global Sulphur Cap 2020 asserts that board ships shall not exceed 0.50% m/m in the amount of sulphur content of any fuel oil used in areas outside the emission control areas (ECAs); this is a decrease from the earlier limit of 3.5% m/m.

In the same year the Global Sulphur Cap was set to be introduced, it was predicted by Mueller et al. that approximately 265,000 premature deaths would occur in 2020 that could be linked to emissions created by global shipping. This is an increase in deaths associated with a link to shipping emissions; for the years prior to 2012, it was estimated that around 87,000 premature deaths occurred each year which could be linked to shipping related emissions. Researchers have stated that despite measures being recently put in place to control emissions, this rise in expected deaths was due to sudden increases in the volume of goods being transported by sea and the subsequent increase in global trade.

Impacts in the Iberian Peninsula
There are limited studies which have focused on the impact of shipping emissions in specific areas. One such study, presented by Nunes et al. (2020), provides an analysis on the impact on human health of shipping emissions in the Iberian Peninsula. The peninsula, situated in southwest Europe, consists of Portugal, Spain, Andorra & Gibraltar. The north, west and southwest of the Iberian Peninsula is adjacent to the Atlantic Ocean and on the southeast it is bordered by the Mediterranean Sea; the Iberian Peninsula is a significant area which links shipping between North America, South America, Africa and the remainder of Europe.

The 2020 study concluded that the most significant level of emissions were detected along the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, the Mediterranean Sea and the Strait of Gibraltar. The most notable emissions identified were SO2 and NO2 concentrations in the coastal areas and O3, PM2.5, PM10 and sulfate in the inland territories which Nunes et al. (2020) conclude that this indiciates ships are significant sources of polluting emissions. In a similar study examining the emissions created by shipping, Viana et al. (2020) discovered that shipping in the Mediterranean Sea was responsible for 6% of the total level of PM2.5 in Barcelona and Athens and 15% in Brindisi and Genoa. The studies conclude that shipping can contribute to poorer air quality which has a negative effect on human health.

In a study in 2021, a year after the previous research efforts by Nunes et al., the same researchers found that premature deaths linked to PM2.5 emissions from shipping increased by 8.5% in Spain and 6.9% in Portugal when contrasted against a situation where these shipping emissions ceased to exist; this represents an average of a 7.7% increase for the whole of the Iberian Peninsula.

There is evidence that the levels of shipping emissions vary depending on different seasons each year. Nunes et al. (2020) found that in 2015 data the highest levels of emissions were exhibited in Summer and Spring and they each accounted for 26% of the total emissions recorded in a year. In comparison, the recorded level of emissions from shipping sat at 23% in winter and 25% in Autumn; it is concluded that the changes in the figure can be linked to the increase of passenger ships in the Summer months which further increase pollutant concentration levels. The study stated that the long-term impacts of shipping on health are still largely underestimated and unstudied.

Long-term implications on human health
With current estimates suggesting a growth of almost 40% in maritime transport activities by 2050, greenhouse gas emissions are predicted to be 90%-150% of 2008 levels (as researched by the fourth global IMO Greenhouse Gas (GHG) study). There are several methods which have been proposed to reduce future levels of shipping related emissions and reduce the impact on human health.

One recommendation for decreasing future shipping related emissions has been brought forward by Toscano (2023). The proposal is that the Mediterranean Sea should become a Sulfur Oxide Emission Control Area (Med SOx ECA) in line with regulation 14 of Annex VI of the MARPOL. It is argued that this would be of considerable advantage to the health and the quality of life of European citizens. The study cited to back up this claim suggests that the Med SOx ECA would lead to a reduction in SOX emissions by 78.7% and a 23.7% reduction in PM2.5 emissions. The study by Toscano (2023) claims this would reduce the impact of shipping related emissions on human health as the amount of emissions present would drastically decrease.

Galland et al. (2012) propose a further method which could be utilised to decrease shipping related emissions through the introduction of regulations requiring shipping companies to drastically decrease their emissions level beyond the current limit set by the Global Sulfur Cap 2020. The study concludes that methods which could be taken by shipping companies include boats used for maritime shipping being required to switch to low-emission or emission free fuels supplies and investing in measures which can increase fuel efficiency.