User:Ixfd64/predictions

This is a speculative timeline of the future. These semi-serious predictions are based on current trends, and a large number of such predictions are related to Wikipedia, dealing with things like community issues, policies, milestones and software advances.

January 7, 2010 - German Wikipedia reaches one million articles
The German Wikipedia reaches its millionth article, which will be about a musical group. It is the first non-English Wikipedia to reach one million articles.


 * Update: The milestone was achieved on December 29, 2009. It looks like I wasn't too far off.

February 8, 2012 - 48th Mersenne prime discovered
The Great Internet Mersenne Prime Search (GIMPS) discovers the 48th Mersenne prime, which will be around 15 million digits long.


 * Update: Nope, it didn't happen. Year changed to 2012.
 * Further update: Discovered in 2013.

September 3, 2012 - 49th Mersenne prime discovered
GIMPS discovers the 49th Mersenne prime, which will be around 17.4 million digits long. This will not happen before 48th is found.

September 17, 2012 - English Wikipedia reaches five million articles
The English Wikipedia will reach its five millionth article, which will be about a species of fish.
 * Completed November 1, 2015, with Persoonia terminalis, instead of a fish.

December 14, 2012 - order-27 optimal Golomb ruler found
distributed.net finds an order-27 optimal Golomb ruler through its OGR-27 distributed computing project. The project was originally predicted to be finished in 2017, but with Moore's law on its side, it takes less than half the time.

July 4, 2013 - 50th Mersenne prime discovered
GIMPS discovers the 50th Mersenne prime, which will be around 20.1 million digits long.

April 12, 2015 - New Horizons reaches Pluto
NASA's New Horizons probe reaches the dwarf planet Pluto. NASA releases about 1,500 images of Pluto, making Wikimedia Commons users really happy.

2017 - bots can now detect 90% of vandalism
Due to advances in AI, more specifically machine learning, Wikipedia bots can now detect about 90% of all vandalism. Due to the low amount of false positives, anti-vandalism bots like are given admin rights.

It is possible to increase the detection rate by removing some constraints in the detection algorithms, but this would result in an increase in the false positive rate.

July 15, 2017 - English Wikipedia reaches 5 million articles
The English Wikipedia reach its 5 millionth article, which will be about a video game character.

February 13, 2018 - Eta Carinae goes supernova
Eta Carinae has already gone supernova. The light from the supernova reaches Earth on this day, and the event will be called SN 2018cf. This causes widespread panic that lasts for a few days. The Wikipedia article for this event instantly becomes one of the most popular.

June 10, 2019 - astronauts return to the Moon
As part of the Constellation program, the United States sends astronauts on the first manned mission to the Moon since the Apollo program over 50 years ago. Due to the ease of accessing information nowadays, the Wikipedia article for this mission is much longer than that of any Apollo mission.

2020 - ion propulsion now in mainstream use
Ion thrusters have largely replaced chemical rockets for deep space missions. Although they have a lower thrust, they are far more efficient than traditional rockets.

2022 - editing Wikipedia by thinking
Due to advances in neuroscience, it is now possible to edit editing Wikipedia by thinking.

Update: This edit was not made via thinking 1/1/2022 -rb

2022 - bot edits now make up 15% of all edits on the English Wikipedia
AI advances now allow computer programs to do many tasks that would previously have required a human. About 10% of all edits on the English Wikipedia are now made by bots. A large number of editors retire from Wikipedia, thinking that their work is no longer needed.

2025 - bots can now detect 99% of vandalism
Human RC patrolling is rarely needed now, and even Huggle now has a "bot mode" that can run without human intervention. However, it will still be many decades before AI fully reaches human sentience.

2026 - edit filters replace anti-vandalism bots
For a long time, bots have been responsible for detecting vandalism on Wikipedia. However, detection algorithms are now advanced enough to detect nearly all vandalism; due to this, the edit filter is now responsible for protecting against vandalism, as it can prevent malicious edits from even occuring. As such, anti-vandalism bots are now being phased out.

February 14, 2035 - first manned mission to Mars
After decades of planning, the first manned mission to Mars is underway. The mission is originally planned for 2031, but is delayed to lack of funding. Due to the enormous costs involved, the mission is a joint international effort headed by NASA and the ESA. The mission is officially called Aurora I, but due to the launch date, it is informally called the Valentine's Day Mission and Cupid's Flight.

Despite the hype about life on Mars, no extraterrestrial organisms have been discovered. NASA releases about 200,000 photographs from the mission, about 50,000 of which are uploaded to Wikimedia Commons. The astronauts return to Earth on November 22, 2037.

2038 - Very Large Hadron Collider (VLHC) completed
After more than two decades of construction, the VLHC is completed and can accelerate protons to 500 TeV. The Higgs boson is discovered.


 * Update: The Higgs was discovered on 4 July, 2012. 26 years earlier...

2039 - universal translators become widespread
Technological devices are now able to translate almost anything between the 6,000 languages in existence. Wikipedians are now working on universal translation bots.

2040 - bot edits now make up 50% of all edits across the Wikimedia projects
Universal translation bots have been developed by the Wikimedia community. After various trial runs, the bots have been approved. Most human work is now being done on the English projects, with universal translation bots adding content to foreign-language projects. Across all the projects, the number of active users declines by about 25%.

2041 - Wikipedia is available in all known languages
Thanks to universal translators, Wikipedia now exists in all known languages. This may seem impractical for languages with only a few speakers, but most Wikipedians support such a project.

August 20, 2043 - first manned mission to the moons of Mars
The first human exploration of Phobos and Deimos is underway. Like the Mars mission, it is an international effort. Due to a lower delta-v, the mission is shorter and less costly. The astronauts return on July 17, 2045.

April 11, 2052 - first manned mission to the Jovian moons
The first human mission to the Galilean moons begins. Due to high levels of radiation, only Callisto and Ganymede are visited. The mission concludes on January 2, 2055.

January 29, 2054 - English Wikipedia reaches ten million articles
The English Wikipedia reaches its ten millionth article, which will be about a chemical compound produced by a certain type of insect. The Wikimedia Foundation hosts a commemorative social event, complete with a dinner and dance. The majority of proceeds from the ticket sales go towards improving the Wikimedia projects, with the remainder going to a charity chosen by the Wikimedia community.

2062 - Mars population reaches 100
Due to the ease and lower costs of space travel, many facilities are being built on Mars. Space tourists also arrive on Mars for the first time. Wikipedians propose notability guidelines for space travelers.

May 17, 2065 - Wikipedia establishes notability guidelines for space travelers
After three years of debate and a few incivility-related blocks, notability guidelines for space travelers have been established. Comments like "Delete - non-notable space tourist" begin to appear on deletion discussions.

2095 - many languages are no longer in use
Due to globalization, many of the worlds languages are no longer used. There have been many proposals to close non-English projects on meta, although all such proposals are rejected.

2400 - faster-than-light travel is developed
Some time in the 25th century, faster-than-light travel is developed. Since humanity can now efficiently explore extraterrestrial worlds, Wikipedians are going to be very busy adding information about other planets' biologies, geologies and histories, etc - assuming Wikipedia still exists.