User:JanZaskolny/Pískoviště

The Escalation Archetype is one of possible types of system behaviour that are known as system archetypes.

The Escalation Archetype is common for situations of non-cooperative games where each player can make own decisions and these decisions lead to the outcome for the player. However when both player try to maximize their output (at the expense of the other one) they can get into a loop where each player will try harder and harder to surpass the opponent. While it can have favourable consequences it can also lead to self-destructive behaviour.

Elements of Archetype
Escalation Archetype system can be described using causal loop diagrams which may consist of balancing and reinforcing loops.

Balancing Loop
Balancing loop is a structure representing negative feedback process. In such a structure, a change in system leads to actions that usually eliminate the effect of that change which means that the system tends to remain stable in time.

Reinforcing Loop
Balancing loop is a structure representing positive feedback process. This reinforcing feedback causes that even a small change in the system can lead tu huge disturbances, eg. variable A is increased which leads to an increase of variable B which leads to another increase of A and so there might be an exponential growth over time.

Escalation Archetype as Balancing Loops
The image below shows escalation archetype as two balancing loops. When X makes an action, it leads to a change in results of X relative to results of Y. Y then makes action to equalize the situation and the result again changes the balance and induces another action by X. As this repeats actions done by X and Y are bigger and bigger to keep up with other's actions and results.

Escalation Archetype as Reinforcing Loop
The causal loop diagram below shows escalation archetype as a single reinforcing loop. It can be read simply as that more action done by X creates bigger results of action done by X. The bigger results of X, the bigger difference between X and Y results. The bigger difference means more action by Y and more action by Y leads to bigger result of Y. The bigger result of Y leads to a smaller difference between X and Y, but the smaller is this difference, the bigger will be the action of X and it starts all over again.

The image below simplifies reinforcing loop and shows general idea of what happens. Increased activity of X leads to an increase of threat for Y which leads to an increased activity by Y. Increased activity by Y leads to increased threat for X which creates another potential for activity of X to grow.

Arms Race
Well-know example of escalation archetype is the arms race. The idea is that in the arms race two (or more) parties are competing to have the strongest army and weapons. An example is the race in producing nuclear weapons by the United States and the Soviet Union that was in important factor in the Cold War. Over the time, each party can get temporarily a slight advantage, but then the other one produces or obtains in other way more weapons and gets the advantage on it's side, temporarily. In the end, both parties have great military power that is very threatening not only to them but also to non-aligned parties.

Picking Apples in an Orchard
The escalation archetype can turn up in situations like picking apples in an orchard. Imagine a big apple orchard with a wealthy crop. An owner of such plantation cannot pick the whole harvest himself because there are simply too many trees. Therefore he employs gatherers to do the work for him. He tries to figure a way how to measure the work they do so that he can reward them fairly. As he is suspicious that workers would work slowly he is hesitant to link the wage only to hours worked and he comes up with an idea. He divides workers into two groups and declares that the group which will harvest more apples will get a bonus to their regular wage.

Both groups start harvesting apples with passion and energy. First group X collects a pallete a little bit sooner then the second group Y. Therefore the Y group motivates those who were a little bit slacking to increase their pace. Now Y is a little bit better so they not only catch up but even finish the second load before X group. The X comes with an idea that they should assign roles to their members - some will pick apples from the upper part of trees using ladders while some will collect those that are in the lower part of trees, other will load packs and one person will organise the work and help where neccessary. This advantage enables X group to outrun the other again. While Y adapts the model of X, they make some changes and tweaks and soon they are the leading party. This improving of processes continues in several iterations until both parties are exceptionally effective in harvesting apples on the orchard. The owner can be really happy with the situation as containers are quickly being loaded with apples. Should everything continue this way, the orchard could be harvested in few hours with group X beating the group Y by a tenth of a percent. He could reward only the winning team or both teams because they were almost equally hardworking.

However due to the fact that one group was always a little bit behind, the situation in the middle of day is bad for one of the groups which is slightly behind, let's say it is group Y. Now, they can continue working like up to that moment and they would finish second with a loss of a tenth of a percent. Or they can come up with another idea that would enable them to increase their production output. They have an idea that harvesting topmost apples is slower that harvesting the rest of them. Because of that they decide to skip these apples and only collect the others. This way, the situation escalated into a trouble. While Y could win the competition now, there will be considerable amount of apples left on trees. Or if both groups are instructed not to leave a single apple in the orchard they will have to stay much longer to finish these apples thus the owner will have higher costs for their wage.

Of course the owner could set a condition that none team could leave a tree that until it is fully harvested. That would help in some way to break the escalation archetype unless workers realize they are not punished for some other undesirable behaviour, for example being careless of tree condition after the harvest.

As can be seen in this example, the escalation archetype might bring positive results (faster harvesting) but it is neccessary to monitor behaviour of the affected system to ensure long-term prosperity.

The Attention Fight
To avoid naming in this example of escalation archetype occurrence, behaviour of imaginary persons Amy, Betty, Cecile and Danielle is described.

Amy, Betty, Cecile and Danielle want to become famous celebrities with a lot of money, loving husband and amazing children. They already have many friends and everybody in the town knows each one of them. They all work hard to be best in their field of expertise and soon they are known to the whole country. They know of each other and try to work harder to become more famous than each other. This is when escalation archetype comes into play. They become the most famous celebrities in the country and each one of them realizes that to draw more attention than others they need to be unique and very special. As Amy starts to work even harder than before Betty notices that Amy's fame is growing more than hers and starts to work harder than Amy. This is noted by Cecile and she does what must be done - starts working more than anyone else. But there is also Danielle whose ambitions are not even slightly smaller, she wants to be the most famous celebrity and so she starts working even harder than anyone else. As Amy notices her effort is not sufficient, she does what is obvious - starts to work more than she was.

Now this cycle could repeat again and again until Amy, Betty, Cecile or Danielle dies of overwork. In the meanwhile some of them could start taking drugs with the presumption that it could boost their productivity and ability to concentrate or with the aim to get rid of depressions from working all the time. Another solution presumed by them as feasible would be some way of elimination the opponents - by false accusation or by pointing to their faults.

Or if they found it impossible to be better by simply working more, they could try to figure out some way how to attract attention by qualitative change instead of quantitative. This way Amy could say something shocking in TV. The issue is that due to escalation archetype being in place unfortunately. Betty could simply follow by saying something even more shocking or controversial. Then, Cecile would feel threatened and so she will come up with an idea that she could make controversial photographies. Then Danielle will try to surpass everyone and will do some action that will attract attention of media and public. And they would escalate this to extreme situation (as the behaviour can develop exponentially).

While at the beginning the competitiveness was beneficial for both Amy, Betty, Cecile, Danielle and public, in the long term many issues raised.

What could be a meaningful solution for these ladies? They could have set some limits themselves in their minds, for example how much time they are willing to work to achieve their desire to be a famous celebrity and what is alright to do and what is not. If they are not able to do so, there has to be some mechanism from outside to stop them - eg. family or friend giving them an advice, as it would be difficult to set legal boundaries in this area.

Competing children
Tendency of parents to compare their children creates nourishing environment for escalation archetype. Parents tend to compare their kids with other children and among own kids. This creates pressure on children as they are expected to perform well.

Imagine family with two kids named for example Lisa and Bartolomeo. Their parents are very much children-focused and they hope their kids will get proper education and will live what they consider succesful life. They invest significant portion of both their family budget and time into both children and hope that this investment will pay off in form of Lisa and Bartolomeo being sucessful in school and later in life.

Lisa and Bartolomeo are usual children with some hobbies who study diligently but without extreme passion. They simply do what they got to do. Their results are good but not perfect. So their parents come and start the escalation archetype by telling the kids that the one with better marks will go on special holiday of her or his choice. As both Lisa and Bartolomeo like travelling a lot, they start to study hard. To satisfaction of their parents children's marks get soon better which is very positive outcome. Yet a problem arises. As they both study really hard to keep pace with the other one, something might go wrong.

For example, when Bartolomeo is very creative and skillful painter but not so talented in studying usual subjects like math or languages. Sooner or later he will reach his limits. Then to keep up the good marks he will have to abandon his painting hobby and his talent will be wasted. Or he will try to sustain great marks and then Bartolomeo will start cheating during exams.

However even when no negative effect happens there will be a difficulty how to reward children after Bartolome finishes second very closely. Should their parents appreciate only Lisa's effort or acknowledge also Bartolomeo's achievements. When they reward only Lisa, Bartolomeo could easily become demotivated and then it would be impossible to make use of positive effects of escalation archetype. On the other hand rewarding both could mean the same and for both children as they realise that their extra effort does not have necessarily mean better outcome.

There is also an alternative version of how competition amongst children can be affected by escalation archetype. When all parents motivate children to improve in comparison to their peers, they will all study harder and harder while the differences amongst participating kids will remain relatively stable (and if teachers increase requirements they will even retain their marks). Under such simple circumstances most children might benefit from the competition nevertheless children with weaker intelectual skill may become isolated when they are no longer able to pursue others. Reversely in another alternative scenario where all children are demotivated to study for some reason, their results are worse and worse (and if teachers decrease requirements they will retain their marks while being less educated) and downward spiral is working in a way that situation gets worse and worse.

Risks and Opportunities
The dangers of systems with escalation archetypes are various. First, it might be difficult to identify the existence of archetype at the first sight. Then the behaviour of the system might look desirable at first and therefore requiring no immediate action. Another risk is a possibility of exponential growth withing such structure. Finally the system might have different outcome in short term and long term.

Escalation archetype comes with a possibility to make a big change in the system with a little input or a small action done at the beginning (due to the fact that it behaves like reinforcing loop).

Solution and Optimization
To remove downward or upward spiral effect of escalation archetype there is a change in the system necessary which breaks the ongoing pattern. That change is typically switching the actors from non-cooperative game mode to cooperative game behaviour so that they stop escalating their actions to keep with others and rather find mutual solution and movement.