User:Jarda2020/2021 Atlantic hurricane season

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing Atlantic hurricane season, which is part of the annual tropical cyclone season in the Northern Hemisphere. It will officially begin on June 1, 2021, and end on November 30, 2021. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most Atlantic tropical cyclones form. However, subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis is possible at any time of the year, as demonstrated by the early formation of Subtropical Storm Ana on May 14, making 2021 the seventh consecutive year that a storm formed before the official start of the season.

Starting with this season, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began to issue regular Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15, two weeks earlier than it did in the past. This change was implemented in light of the fact that named systems had formed in the Atlantic Ocean prior to the official start of the season in each of the preceding six seasons.

Seasonal forecasts
In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the United Kingdom's Met Office, and Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray and their associates at Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained roughly 14 tropical storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 72–111 units. Broadly speaking, ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h). NOAA typically categorizes a season as either above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season are sometimes also considered.

Seasonal summary
The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season began with the early subtropical transition of Ana, which marked the seventh consecutive year in which a tropical or subtropical cyclone formed before the official start of the season.

Tropical Storm Ana
An upper-level trough drifted across the western Atlantic on May 10, inducing the formation of a low-pressure area along a stalled front the next day. This extratropical cyclone, besides cold waters and high wind shear, managed to develop to a subtropical storm on May 14, and NOAA started issuing advisories.

Tropical Storm Bill
In late-May, a cold front sagged southward across the Mid-Atlantic United States. Shower and thunderstorm activity coalesced offshore South Carolina, leading to the formation of an area of low pressure there. This low, and the associated convection, became better defined while being directed northeast by a shortwave trough, and a tropical depression formed about 100 mi (161 km) east-southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina, around 12:00 UTC on May 25. Though sheared, the incipient cyclone strengthened into Tropical Storm Bill eighteen hours later. Banding features became better defined, especially across the northern and western quadrants of the storm, and Bill reached peak winds of 70 mph (110 km/h) early on May 28 while paralleling the Northeast United States coastline. Its northeast track soon brought the system over colder waters and into higher wind shear, resulting in Bill's transition to an extratropical cyclone approximately 406 mi (653 km) east-southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia, around 18:00 UTC on May 31. The low dissipated into a trough six hours later before progressing across southeastern Newfoundland.

Tropical Storm Claudette
In early-June, a tropical wave crossed the Caribbean and eventually interacted with the enhanced portion of the monsoon trough in the East Pacific. This resulted in a large cyclonic gyre over Central America, with distinct disturbances over the East Pacific and in the Bay of Campeche. The latter system moved north. Though it struggled with wind shear, resulting in a broad center with multiple swirls and winds largely confined in a rainband to the east, the system organized into Tropical Storm Claudette around 06:00 UTC on June 4. It promptly moved onshore about 30 mi (50 km) south-southwest of Houma, Louisiana, with peak winds of 65 mph (100 km/h), and peaked at 00:00 UTC on June 8. The cyclone weakened to a depression as it moved northeastward over Alabama, but it regained tropical storm intensity while crossing North Carolina and reached a secondary peak intensity just offshore. By June 12, Claudette was accelerating northeast and undergoing extratropical transition, a process it completed around 18:00 UTC that day. The extretropical low dissipated on June 17 to the southeast of Nova Scotia.

Hurricane Danny
On June 15, a tropical wave exited the west coast of Africa. Dry air caused the system to be mostly devoid of convection by the time it reached the Lesser Antilles on June 17. Thereafter, unfavorable upper-level winds prevented the wave from developing significantly, as it crossed the Bahamas and Florida on June 18. After the wave reached the Gulf of Mexico, upper-level winds became more favorable. The system acquired a well-defined circulation, and a tropical depression formed at 00:00 UTC on June 19 about 235 mi (380 km) south-southeast of Port Eads, Louisiana. Despite light to moderate wind shear and warm seas, mid-level dry air caused the depression to strengthen slowly. About 18 hours after forming, the depression became Tropical Storm Hanna as it moved west-northwestward. Later on June 21, Hanna began intensifying slightly faster as convective banding increased and an eye feature developed. That same day, the cyclone also curved westward due to a strengthening deep-layer ridge to the north. Hanna reached hurricane intensity at 12:00 UTC on June 23. The storm then curved west-southwestward and peaked with sustained winds of 80 mph (130 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 971 mbar (28.67 inHg). Hanna made landfall on Padre Island, Texas, at the same intensity at 23:15 UTC on June 23, one hour and fifteen minutes before making landfall in Kenedy County. The system rapidly weakened after moving inland, dropping to tropical depression status at 15:00 UTC on June 25 near Monterrey, Nuevo León, and then dissipating at 12:00 UTC on June 27. Its remnants made lanfall on California on June 28, causing flashfloods. Floodwaters entered dozens of building in low-lying areas. In the United States, Hanna indirectly caused five deaths and caused about $1.2 billion in damage. In Mexico, heavy precipitation fell in Coahuila, Nuevo León, and Tamaulipas. More than 8,750 homes in Coahuila were inundated, while at least 145 neighborhoods in Reynosa reported flood damage. The cyclone directly caused 15 deaths (plus 6 indirect deaths) in Mexico and caused approximately $200 million in damage.

Hurricane Elsa
In mid-June, a well-defined surface trough developed over the western Atlantic just south of Bermuda. The trough moved slowly west-southwestward towards the Bahamas, where it produced disorganized convection beginning on June 25. By 18:00 UTC on June 26, convection within the system became better organized and a well-defined center of circulation developed, marking the formation of Tropical Depression Five between Andros Island and Bimini in the Bahamas. The depression moved westward and made landfall near Cutler Bay, Florida, around 12:00 UTC on June 27, with winds of 35 mph (55 km/h). Six hours later, while its center was over the Everglades, the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Elsa. Elsa emerged over the Gulf of Mexico a few hours later and turned to the northwest once offshore. Moderate northwesterly shear hindered its steady strengthening. When the shear decreased somewhat early the next day, a burst of deep convection developed near and to the east of the storm's center and it began to go through a period of rapid intensification. During this time, Elsa became a category 1 hurricane at 06:00 UTC on June 29, while centered about 145 mi (235 km) south of Pensacola, Florida, as its intensity increased from 60 mph (95 km/h) to 85 mph (135 km/h) over an 18-hour period. After weakening to 80 mph (130 km/h) early on June 30, Elsa slowed to a crawl while turning north-northeastward. Later that same day, Elsa began a second period of rapid intensification, becoming a high-end Category 2 hurricane by 12:00 UTC July 1. At around 12:45 UTC, the system made landfall at peak intensity near Gulf Shores, Alabama, with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph (175 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 961 mbars (28.37 inHg). Elsa rapidly weakened to a tropical storm by 18:00 UTC as it moved slowly inland. Later, the storm weakened to a tropical depression by 06:00 UTC on July 5, and became an extratropical low six hours later over eastern Alabama. It was subsequently absorbed within a cold front and dissipated over South Carolina on the following day. Elsa caused on of the worst floodings in recorded history of Alabama and Florida. Its dangerous winds caused heavy damage, at least 500 buildings were damaged by either floods or winds in Florida. And around 1,250 buildings were damaged in Alabama. Elsa caused damages of more than 5.1 billion USD, killed 28 people directly, and one person indirectly.

Hurricane Fred
A tropical wave emerged into the Atlantic from the west coast of Africa on July 2. The wave gradually organized and became better defined, developing a broad area of low pressure on the following day. Due to the threat the system posed to the Lesser Antilles, the NHC initiated advisories on the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Six at 12:00 UTC on July 6. By the next day, the disturbance was producing heavy rains and gale-force winds. Scatterometer passes by early on July 8 indicated that the system had developed a sufficiently well-defined center and became Tropical Storm Isaias by 00:00 UTC about 140 mi (225 km) south of Ponce, Puerto Rico. The cyclone made landfall about 16 hours later near San Pedro de Macorís, Dominican Republic. Shortly after the storm's eye moved offshore the northern coast of Hispaniola early on July 9, Isaias intensified into a hurricane. Nine hours later, it made landfall on Great Inagua Island in the Bahamas.

The storm then fluctuated in intensity due to strong wind shear and dry air, with Isaias reaching its initial peak intensity early on July 9 with winds of 75 mph (120 km/h). At 15:00 UTC on July 10, Isaias made landfall on North Andros with winds of 75 mph (120 km/h), and the system weakened to a tropical storm at 18:00 UTC. It then turned north-northwest, remaining offshore Florida and Georgia while fluctuating between 65 and 70 mph (100–110 km/h) wind speeds. As the cyclone accelerated northeastward and approached the Carolina coastline, wind shear relaxed, allowing the storm to quickly re-intensify into a hurricane at 18:00 UTC on July 13. At 03:10 UTC the next day, Isaias made landfall in Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina, at peak intensity with sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 973 mbar (28.73 inHg). Following landfall, Isaias accelerated and weakened slowly, dropping below hurricane status at 12:00 UTC over North Carolina. The storm passed over the Mid-Atlantic states before transitioning to an extratropical low around 15:00 UTC on July 17 while situated over central Vermont, and dissipating several hours later over Quebec.

Isaias triggered a large tornado outbreak that prompted the issuance of 109 tornado warnings across 12 states. A total of 39 tornadoes touched down, several of which caused significant damage. Impact was mostly minor in Florida and Georgia. Storm surge in South Carolina left significant impacts in Horry County, with 483 homes damaged in Myrtle Beach alone. In North Carolina, storm surge destroyed some bulkheads and dunes, while water flooded streets and entered the ground floors of businesses in downtown Wilmington. An EF4 tornado in Bertie County demolished several mobile homes and stick-built dwellings, killing two people and injuring 25. Strong winds, storm surge, and many tornadoes left significant damage in the Northeastern United States. Almost 3 million people were without electricity at the height of the storm, including over 1 million people in New Jersey alone. Isaias caused 85 deaths across the Greater Antilles and eastern United States: 57 in the continental United States, 14 in the Dominican Republic, and 18 in Puerto Rico. Damage estimates exceeded $11.7 billion, with almost $5.5 billion of which occurring in the Northeastern United States, making Isaias the costliest tropical cyclone to strike the region since Hurricane Sandy in 2012.

Tropical Storm Grace
A large area of disturbed weather, associated with the remnant low of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Felicia, moved northwestward across the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico and emerged over the Bay of Campeche on July 22. Later that day, at 18:00 UTC, the remnant low developed into Tropical Depression Seven. By 18:00 UTC on July 25, the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Grace. Throughout the remainder of the day, Grace's wind field became more symmetrical and well defined and it gradually strengthened, with falling barometric pressure as the storm meandered towards the Mexican coastline. Grace made landfall as a strong tropical storm just west of Ciudad del Carmen at 14:20 UTC on July 27 at its peak intensity of 65 mph (100 km/h). As Grace drifted inland, it weakened to a tropical depression as the overall structure of the storm deteriorated.

The storm turned northward on July 30 and by 06:00 UTC that day, despite being situated inland over the Yucatán Peninsula, Grace re-intensified into a tropical storm. As Grace moved farther north into the Gulf of Mexico, it again reached winds of 65 mph (100 km/h) before dry air and interaction with an upper-level trough to the east began to displace most of the central convection to the east and north of the center. Late on July 31, Grace made landfall over southeastern Louisiana. The system weakened to a tropical depression on the next day, as it moved inland over the state. The storm continued northward along the Mississippi River Valley, before becoming an extratropical low early on August 2 over Iowa. The low moved northeastward across Wisconsin, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and Northern Ontario, before dissipating on August 4.

On July 23, the government of Mexico issued a tropical storm warning from Campeche westward to Puerto de Veracruz. Residents at risk were evacuated. Nine thousand Mexican National Guard members were summoned to aid in preparations and repairs. Significant rain fell across much of Southern Mexico and Central America. Over two-hundred homes and three hospitals in Mexico experienced some degree of damage. Wave heights up to 9.8 ft (3 m) high closed ports for several days. In El Salvador, a mudslide caused seven people to go missing. Up to 9.6 in (243 mm) of rain fell in the Yucatán Peninsula, flooding sections of a highway. Street flooding occurred as far away as Nicaragua. Tropical storm watches and warnings were also issued along the Gulf Coast of the United States beginning on June 5. Coastal flooding occurred in Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Grace inflicted damage to 30 businesses, 23 homes, 23 roads, and 13 public buildings in Mississippi. Damage in the United States was estimated at $710 million. The storm caused an estimated $965 million in damage throughout all impacted areas. At least six deaths were connected to Grace, with three in Mexico and three in the United States.

Tropical Storm Henri
A vigorous tropical wave moved off Africa on August 4 and swiftly organized into a tropical depression around 18:00 UTC on August 8. At that time, the system was located about 535 mi (860 km) south of Cabo Verde. The newly formed cyclone moved west-northwest on the south side of a ridge. While ocean temperatures and wind shear values were conducive, the storm was surrounded by some dry air that intermittently became entrained into its circulation. The depression intensified into Tropical Storm Henri at 00:00 UTC on August 9 and reached peak winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) about two days later. As Victor turned northwest, it encountered starkly higher wind shear which resulted in its weakening. Its convection became displaced and its low-level circulation elongated, which led to its degeneration to a trough around 12:00 UTC on August 19. The remnants turned west and dissipated over the open Atlantic the next day.

Hurricane Ida
A tropical wave emerged off the west coast of Africa on August 20 and quickly developed into Tropical Depression Nine about two days later. By August 23, the depression had strengthened and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Ida. The storm steadily intensified and became a hurricane on August 24. Thereafter, Ida rapidly deepened, and was a major hurricane only 24 hours later. While it was becoming a Category 3 hurricane, and a Category 4 hurricane, shortly after, Ida passed through the Windward Islands. Upon entering the Caribbean Sea, Ida continued to strengthen and became a Category 5 hurricane on August 25, while about halfway between Puerto Rico and Venezuela. Ida briefly curved northwestward and approached the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. Shortly thereafter, Ida weakened significantly on August 26, but was still a Category 4 when it bypassed Jamaica. While paralleling the south coast of Cuba, Allen re-strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane. Later that day, the storm attained its peak intensity with winds of 190 mph (305 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of 899 mbar (26.5 inHg). Immediately following peak intensity, Allen entered the Gulf of Mexico and weakened back to a Category 4 hurricane on August 27. On the day next, Allen re-intensified into a Category 5 hurricane while approaching Texas. However, just offshore Allen abruptly weakened to a low-end Category 3 hurricane prior to landfall near Brownsville, Texas on September 2. The storm quickly weakened inland and dissipated about 36 hours after striking land.

Subtropical Storm Julian
On August 19, the NHC began monitoring a non-tropical disturbance just off East Coast of the U.S., anticipating that it would shortly develop into a strong low-pressure system, a nor'easter, as it moved northward up the coast, and then possibly develop tropical or subtropical characteristics afterward while moving away from the coast. The storm brought heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and coastal flooding to areas in the Northeast U.S. between August 21 and 23. It acquired subtropical characteristics early on August 27, while located over the central Atlantic, and was given the name Julian. After meandering several hundred nautical miles west of the Azores for nearly a week, Julian weakened and began accelerating northeastward late on September 1, as it interacted with a deepening mid-latitude low pressure system over the northern Atlantic. The next day, its low level circulation ceased generating deep convection and the north side began opening-up into a trough due to interaction with the other system. As a result, Julian was deemed by the NHC to have become a post-tropical low as of its 21:00 UTC advisory.

The precursor to Julian caused over $750 million in damages across the Northeastern U.S.; two storm-related deaths were reported. There were no reports of damage or deaths associated with Julian itself.

Tropical Storm Kate
On August 24, a tropical wave exited the west coast of Africa and entered the Atlantic. The wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, moved quickly to the west and west-northward, passing well south of the Cabo Verde Islands. After decelerating and curving northwestward due to a weakness in the subtropical ridge, the system organized into a tropical depression at 12:00 UTC on August 29 while situated approximately 805 mi (1,295 km) east of the Leeward Islands. The depression moved generally northward and remained weak due to strong wind shear generated by a broad mid-to-upper-level trough. A temporary burst in convection allowed the depression to intensify into Tropical Storm Kate early on August 31 and soon peak with 50 mph (85 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 998 mbar (29.5 inHg). However, strong wind shear and very dry mid-level air caused Kate to weaken to a tropical depression on September 1. By 18:00 UTC on September 1, Kate degenerated into a trough about 960 mi (1,545 km) northeast of the Leeward Islands. The remnants continued north-northwestward until dissipating a few days later.

Current storm information
As of 00:00 a.m. UTC September 3, Hurricane Larry is located within 10 nautical miles of 13.7°N, -35.8°W, about 817 mi west of Praia, Cabo Verde. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kn, with gusts up to 105 kn. The minimum barometric pressure is 978 mbar, and the system is moving west at 10 kn. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force wind extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Larry.

For the latest official information, see:


 * The NHC's latest public advisory on Hurricane Larry
 * The NHC's latest forecast advisory on Hurricane Larry
 * The NHC's latest forecast discussion on Hurricane Larry

Storm names
The following names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2021. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in the spring of 2022. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2027 season. This is the same list used in the 2015 season, with the exceptions of Elsa and Julian, which replaced Erika and Joaquin, respectively.

If there are more than 21 named storms this season, subsequent storms will take names from an auxiliary list of names approved by the WMO. Previously, the Greek alphabet was used if a season's primary name list was exhausted; this happened in 2005 and again in 2020. This practice was discontinued as the 2020 season brought multiple shortcomings to light with the use of the Greek alphabet, such as that there was too much focus on how the Greek alphabet was used instead of reporting on the impacts of these tropical cyclones, as well as the difficulty found when such names had to be retired due to devastating impacts.

Season effects
This is a table of all of the storms that have formed in the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s)–denoted by bold location names – damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all of the damage figures are in 2021 USD.