User:Jason Rees/Tokelau TC's

Background
The New Zealand dependency of Tokelau lies in the southern Pacific Ocean, to the north of the Samoan Islands, east of Tuvalu, south of the Phoenix Islands, southwest of the Line Islands and northwest of the Cook Islands. The island nation consists of three tropical coral atolls (Atafu, Nukunonu and Fakaofo), with a combined land area of approximately 1220 ha. Each of these island groups consist of a number of reef-bound atolls encircling a large lagoon and lie about 4-5 m above sea level. In addition, Swains Island (Olohega) to the south of these three atolls is historically and culturally considered to a part of Tokelau, however, the island is currently administered by America as a part of American Samoa.

Archaeological evidence suggests that Tokelau was settled over 1000 years ago, while the islands were discovered by European and American sailors during the 18th and 19th centuries. During 1856, Eli Jennings allegedly brought Swains island from a Captain Turnbull, for 15 shillings per acre (37 shillings per hectare) and a bottle of gin. Swains island was also claimed for America under the Guano Islands Act by the United States Guano Company during 1860

Tokelau lies UTC+13 an Within Tokelau, the earliest weather observations were made on Atafu during 1928 and Nukunonu during 1938 by Tokeluan radio operatives.

When a tropical cyclone is forecast to impact Tokelau, the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) issues special weather bulletins, which contain either a tropical cyclone alert, gale, storm or a hurricane warning for the island. These weather bulletins are passed to the Meteorological Departments of Samoa and Tokelau who edit them for clarity and translates them into Tokelauan, before disseminating them to various stakeholders

Climatology
It is rare for a tropical cyclone or a severe tropical cyclone to directly impact Tokelau, with the likelihood closely linked to the state of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The risk of a tropical cyclone impacting Tokelau decreases during La Nina episodes, as more tropical cyclones occur in the Coral Sea near Australia. The risk subsequently increases during El Nino episodes, as more systems occur to the east of the International Dateline. However, as Atafu, Fakaofo, Nukunonu and Swains are all low lying atolls, the island nation is vulnerable to storm surges and gale force winds, produced by distant tropical cyclones.

Systems that have caused significant impacts to the country, have tended to take one of three general tracks near the New Zealand dependency. The first group of tropical cyclones; develop in between Tokelau and Tuvalu, before they move south-eastwards and pass within 500 km of the country. This type of track results in the country experiencing strong northerly winds, high waves and storm surge, while the western/inhabited atolls might experience the eyewall, depending on how close the system is to the islands. The second group of tropical cyclones tend to move eastwards well to the south of Tokelau, with swell produced by the extreme winds moving north-westwards towards the country over several days. As a result, the relative impact of these waves on the country is dependent on various factors including storm surge, how intense a system is, how quickly it moves as well as the tide conditions and the state of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The third group of systems form to the south of Fakaofo and tend to move south-westwards away from the island nation, which results in minor impacts to the inhabited atolls.

Systems

 * 1846 - Richards (1990)
 * 1908 - Richards (1990)
 * January 1914 - A tropical cyclone existed near Tokelau.
 * December 1925 - A tropical cyclone existed near Tokelau.
 * January 1936 - A tropical cyclone existed near Tokelau.
 * February 26, 1941 - A tropical cyclone existed near Tokelau.
 * November 24, 1941 - A tropical cyclone existed near Tokelau.
 * Decemeber 4, 1957 - A tropical cyclone existed near Tokelau.
 * January 29 - 30, 1966&nbsp- High seas associated with a tropical cyclone near Samoa, destroyed or damaged 50 houses on Nukunonu and Fakaofo.
 * January 1967 - A tropical cyclone existed near Tokelau.

1970s

 * Collette
 * Elenore
 * Kim
 * Laurie
 * Anne
 * Bob
 * Charles
 * November 2, 1972 - A tropical cyclone existed near Tokelau.
 * January 1, 1978 - A tropical cyclone existed near Tokelau.

1980's

 * Arthur
 * Esay
 * Unnamed
 * Issac
 * Drena
 * Tusi
 * Wini
 * Zuman

1990's

 * February 2 - 3, 1990 - Ofa

Swains Island suffered extensive damage with a complete loss of agricultural crops, including bananas, pawpaws, breadfruits and taro reported.

A gale warning was issued by the FMS for the whole of Tokelau during February 2, as Ofa started to affect the island with heavy rain, high seas and strong to gale-force winds. Ofa caused extensive damage to the islands public buildings, after sea walls around the atolls of Nukunonu, Atafu and Fakaofo were washed away by high seas. Around 80% of the breadfruit and coconut trees were destroyed or damaged by the winds, while an inundation of water associated with Ofa was responsible for washing away or contaminating topsoil.


 * Fran
 * Val
 * Lin
 * Evan
 * Keli
 * January 2 - 5, 1998 - Ron also impacted Swains Island during January 2, where it was estimated by a fisherman that hurricane-force winds of 130–140 km/h impacted the island. Most of the residential houses on the island were destroyed, with the exception of several concrete buildings which survived the strong winds. There were a few minor injuries reported on Swains, however, there were no injuries or damages reported from any of the other Samoan Islands.
 * Tui
 * 08F

2000's

 * Waka
 * Zoe
 * Heta
 * Nancy
 * Olaf
 * February 25, 2005 - Percy
 * Rae
 * Janaury 22 - 23, 2007 - A gale watch was issued for Swains Island, as Tropical Cyclone Arthur precursor tropical depression developed about 555 km to the northwest of Pago Pago.
 * December 3, 2007 - Severe Tropical Cyclone Daman's precursor tropical depression formed about 385 km to the south-west of Swains Island. The system subsequently moved south-eastwards away from Tokelau and impacted Fiji from December 7 - 10.

2010's

 * Oli
 * Rene
 * Tomas
 * Wilma
 * Evan
 * Garry
 * Amos
 * Tuni
 * Ula