User:Jaydavidmartin/Thucydides Trap

The Thucydides Trap is a term coined by American political scientist Graham T. Allison to describe a purported tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace a preexisting great power as the international hegemon. It was coined and is primarily used to describe a potential conflict between The United States and The People's Republic of China.

The term is based on a quote by ancient Athenian historian and military general Thucydides, in which he posited that the Peloponnesian war between Athens and Sparta had been inevitable as a result of Spartan fear of the growth of Athenian power.

Origin
The term was coined by American political scientist Graham T. Allison in a 2012 article for the Financial Times about a potential conflict between The United States and China, based on a quote from ancient Athenian historian and military general Thucydides's text History of the Peloponnesian War, in which Thucydides posits that "it was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable". He further expanded on the term in Destined for War, his book propounding the argument that "China and the US are currently on a collision course for war".

Definition
The term describes the theory that when a great power's position as hegemon is threatened by an emerging power, there is a significant likelihood of war between the two powers. Or in coiner Graham Allison's words: Thucydide's Trap refers to the natural, inevitable discombobulation that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power...it's implications are most dangerous in international affairs. For just as the original instance of Thucydide's Trap resulted in a war that brought Greece to its knees, this phenomenon has haunted diplomacy since.

As evidence of this, Allison points to a case study by the Harvard University Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs that he headed, which found that among the 16 historical instance in which an emerging power rivaled a ruling power, 12 of them ended in war.

Influence
The term and arguments surrounding it have had influence in international media, including Chinese state media, and among American and Chinese politicians. A case study of the term by Alan Greeley Misenheimer published by the Institute for National Strategic Studies, the military research arm of the National Defense University, stating that the term "has received global attention since entering the international relations lexicon". Furthermore, BBC diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Marcus has quipped that Graham Allison's book Destined For War expanding on the Thucydides trap "has become required reading for many policymakers, academics and journalists".

China–United States relations
The term is primarily used and was coined in relation to a potential military conflict between the United States and the People's Republic of China. Scholars have noted that there are a number of pressing issues the two nations are at odds over, including the de facto independence of Taiwan, China’s digital policing and its use of cyber espionage, differing policies towards North Korea, China's increased naval presence in the Pacific and its claims over the South China Sea, and human rights in Xianjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong, that increase the likelihood of the two powers falling into the Thucydides trap. Some also point to the consolidation of power by Xi Jinping, an irreconcilable difference in values between the United States and China, and the trade deficit with China as further evidence the countries may be slipping into the Thucydides trap. Paramount leader of China Xi Jinping has himself referenced the term, cautioning that: "We all need to work together to avoid the Thucydides trap—destructive tensions between an emerging power and established powers…Our aim is to foster a new model of major country relations".

The term picked picked up steam in 2018 as a result a surge in US-Chinese tensions after US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on almost half of China’s exports to the US, resulting in a tit-for-tat series of economic escalations.

China-US relations
A number of scholars have criticized the application of the Thucydides trap to US-China relations. For instance, Richard Hanania, a research fellow at Columbia University, argues that China's ambitions are limited primarily to combating internal issues, and thus they will not pose a threat to US interests. Professor Hu Bo of Peking University's Institute of Ocean Research and one of China's foremost naval strategists has similarly said: "I think the balance of power doesn't support the Thucydides hypothesis." Other scholars like Historian Arthur Waldron have claimed that China is still far too weak for such a conflict, pointing in particular to their "economic vulnerabilities" and an exodus of Chinese out of China.

In a reverse of Allison's concerns, Harvard University political scientist Joseph S. Nye has argued that the primary concern is actually not the rise of China leading to a Thucydides trap, but rather internal issues within China leading to a weakening of China in what he calls a "Kindleberger Trap".

Methodological criticisms
The research by Graham Allison supporting the Thucydides trap has also been criticized. Harvard University political scientist Joseph S. Nye has contested the claim that of 16 historical cases of a rising power rivaling a ruling power 12 led to war on the basis that Allison misidentified cases. For example, he points to one case—World War I, which Allison considered a case of Germany as the emerging power rivaling Britain—saying that it misidentifies the causes of World War I. Historian Arthur Waldron has similarly argued that Allison mischaracterizes several conflicts. For example, he says of the Japan-Russia conflict included by Allison: "Japan was the rising power in 1904 while Russia was long established. Did Russia therefore seek to preempt Japan? No. The Japanese launched a surprise attack on Russia, scuttling the Czar’s fleet."

In a case study for the Institute for National Strategic Studies, the military research arm of the National Defense University, Alan Greeley Misenheimer says that "Thucydides’ text does not support Allison’s normative assertion about the 'inevitable' result of an encounter between 'rising' and 'ruling' powers" and that while it "draws welcome attention both to Thucydides and to the pitfalls of great power competition" it "fails as a heuristic device or predictive tool in the analysis of contemporary events".

Peloponnesian War
Harvard University political scientist Joseph S. Nye has also argued that Graham Allison also misunderstands the Peloponnesian War, arguing that it was not in fact a result of a rising Athens challenging Sparta. Historian Arthur Waldron similarly argued that Professor Donald Kagan of Yale University and the late Professor Ernst Badian of [[Harvard University" have "long ago proved that no such thing exists as the 'Thucydides Trap'" with regards to the Peloponnesian War.