User:Kahlores/Sandbox

Left-Right spectrum
Opinion polls made simpler to read with a horizontal arrangement from left-wing to right-wing.

Scandinavian countries:


 * Sweden (Swedish Wikipedia)
 * Denmark
 * Finland (used on the 2015-2019 page)
 * Norway
 * Iceland

Israel:
 * Historical
 * pre-22nd Knesset
 * pre-23rd Knesset
 * pre-24th Knesset

Balkan region:


 * Croatia
 * Slovenia (used on the 2018-2022 page)
 * Romania (used on the 2016-2020 section)

Other European:


 * Poland


 * Estonia
 * Spain (two variants)
 * Latvia
 * Slovakia (probably incorrect)
 * Netherlands: (PS 2019) (TK 2021-2022)
 * Ukraine (unable to rearrange)

A tentative explanation of some arrangements can be found here: left-right axis throughout the world.

Next elections
80% electoral college)
 * 13: 2022 Castilian-Leonese regional election (PP-Cs -- close: PSOE could muster simple majority if Cs sustain; España Vaciada kingmaker; PP-Vox unlikely)
 * 13: 2022 Swiss referendums (expected: tobacco & e-cigarette ads ban (Yes); animal experiments not banned (No); stamp duties law issuance tax not abolished (No); state subsidies for media companies (probable No, but close, left-right divide))
 * 17: Bristol City Council, Southmead Ward (Labour seat -- a Green victory would give Greens their 3rd council plurality [SAVED])
 * 27: 2022 Belarusian constitutional referendum
 * March
 * 1: 20th National Congress of the People's Party (Spain) (Alberto Núñez Feijóo to replace right-wing rival Pablo Casado with Ayuso's key support, following Vox gains)
 * 3: 2022 Armenian presidential election (Sarkissian resigned, feeling too weak against opposing PM Pashinyan & KP -- Khachaturyan)
 * 9: 2022 South Korean presidential election (Democratic (center-left) -- People Power Party (center-right) Yoon Seok-youl in front of Lee Jae-myung)
 * 10: 2022 Hungarian presidential election (Presidents from Fidesz supermajorities since 2010 -- first woman Katalin Novák) to be elected)
 * 10 (results):
 * 2022 Uttar Pradesh legislative election [10 Feb - 7 Mar] (BJP safe majority -- expected test for BJP in the most populous state of India [>200 million])
 * 2022 Goa Legislative Assembly election
 * 16: 2022 Dutch municipal elections -- long trends unchanged: CDA down, smaller parties up, local lists top
 * 19: 2022 South Australian state election (Liberal government -- a test before the nationwide elections; expected Labor takeover based on national trends)
 * 26: 2022 Maltese general election (Labour, since 2013, to continue)
 * 27: 2022 Saarland state election (CDU-SPD -- SPD's Anke Rehlinger will replace CDU's Tobias Hans, with R-R-G or Ampel; FW close [Green, FDP, Linke below 5%, FW below 2%, SPD majority with 43.5%])
 * April
 * 3: 2022 Serbian general election (Vučić, SNS-SP since 2012 -- both likely reconducted, but with reduced majority)
 * 3: 2022 Hungarian parliamentary election (Fidesz with 2/3 supermajority since 2010 -- Péter Márki-Zay's opposition coalition suffers from internal strife. Fidesz likely to save a limited majority. Surprise if Mi Hazánk does >5%.)
 * 10: 2022 French presidential election first round (see opinion polls. Macron likely through, paired with 1 of the 3 candidates on the right... or Mélenchon?)
 * 24: 2022 French presidential election second round (Macron likely reelected, as solidarity is lacking between center-right and far-right, or between non-centrists)
 * 24: 2022 Slovenian parliamentary election (SDS-centrists after left-centrists -- see opinion polls, expected: urban center-left victory, party proliferation, wasted votes)
 * May
 * 5: 2022 United Kingdom local elections including:
 * for England: London & Metropolitan boroughs (Labour to maintain dominance), a few rural districts (a test for the Tory govt)
 * for Wales: 2022 Welsh local elections (nothing new expected). Note: some areas can switch from FPTP to STV for 2027 (likelier with Green, LibDems, Plaid councillors)
 * for Scotland: 2022 Scottish local elections under STV, including Glasgow (SNP set to complete takeover) and Edinburgh (5-way-race). Green advances expected.
 * Green victories expected, especially in urban centers. Tories likely to lose seats, but not hugely.
 * for Northern Ireland: 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election strict sectarianism further weakened by Alliance gains, TUV to compete with DUP
 * 8: 2022 Schleswig-Holstein state election (CDU-Grüne-FDP -- the same party power index is expected, but with SPD's Serpil Midyatli in front)
 * 9: 2022 Philippine general election (populist landslide anew: Bongbong Marcos for Pres., Sara Duterte for Vice)
 * 14: 2018 Icelandic municipal elections (is) (center-right could take back Rejykavik?)
 * 15: 2022 North Rhine-Westphalia state election (CDU-FDP -- expected Ampel majority, R-R-G possible if Linke >5%)
 * 15: 2022 Lebanese general election
 * ??: 2022 Australian federal election
 * 29: 2022 Colombian presidential election
 * June
 * 1: 2022 Danish European Union opt-out referendum (two previous opt-outs were confirmed by referendum, Denmark being quite euroskeptic; would pass if still at shock)
 * 12-19: 2022 French legislative election (always returned a presidential majority since 2002 as legislative elections have been paired to the presidential one)
 * 19: 2022 Andalusian regional election (PP-Cs minority -- expected PP plurality over Cs freefall, may need Vox for a majority)
 * July
 * 25: 2022 Japanese House of Councillors election (LDP-Komeito small majority -- Kishida government to be tested)
 * 25: 2022 Tunisian constitutional referendum-->
 * September
 * 11: 2022 Swedish general election
 * 25: 2022 Italian general election (M5S-Lega populist, then Draghi technocratic govt -- high-stakes election, with possible influential "events"; Center-right advantage, unless Renzi joins Letta's Left-Wing; new electoral law has a strong unproportional element (36% FPTP seats) which will conflict with party fragmentation on both populist sides: M5S, Italexit, IC...)
 * October
 * 1: 2022 Latvian parliamentary election
 * 1: 2022 Israeli legislative election (weak non-Netanyahu govt -- Netanyahu's nationalist-religious coalition likely ahead; but war could help PM Lapid)
 * 2: 2022 Bulgarian parliamentary election (weak liberal coalition -- clear campaign between pro-US, pro-Russian parties, end of ambiguous ITN, DPS & BSP kingmakers, Borisov back?)
 * 2: 2022 Brazilian general election (Bolsonaro -- 77-year-old leftist Lula in front. Centrists squeezed. Large swings of opinion common in Brazil)
 * ??: 2022 Slovenian presidential election, 1st round
 * 30: 2022 Brazilian general election second round