User:Kerm23

Kerm23 is a first-year graduate student in Meteorology.



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Interests
I'm currently interested in atmospheric buoyancy and stability in the mesoscale. Although the atmosphere on "average" is stable everywhere, small-scale instability can drive a lot of severe weather phenomena. Also, I am interested in the tools and methodology behind assessing and forecasting severe weather such as the Bulk Richardson number.


 * http://www.meted.ucar.edu/mesoprim/cape/cape.htm UCAR Buoyancy and CAPE online learning module.
 * http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-document&doi=10.1175%2F1520-0450(2001)040%3C0628:DOTAMV%3E2.0.CO%3B2 Dependence of Turbulent and Mesoscale Velocity Variances on Scale and Stability

Definition
For mesoscale forecasting purposes, the Bulk Richarson Number (BRN) is a dimensionless quantity that relates buoyancy through convective available potential energy (CAPE) to vertical wind shear for a 5.5km thickness and is simply is defined as:

BRN = CAPE / (0.5 * (u6km - u500m)^2)

Here, u6km is the wind speed at 6km above ground level (AGL) and u500 is the wind speed at 500m AGL.

The BRN is often used to forecast storm type development such as the possible formation of supercell storms.

Critical Values and Interpretation
There is no exact interpration of BRN values but, in general, for a BRN less than 10, vertical shear dominates over buoyancy and the storm will likely be eviscerated by the shear. For BRN values between 10 and 45, the shear tends to balance the buoyancy favoring strong convective supercells. A BRN larger than 45 supports ordinary cell or multicell convective storms but due to updraft tilt stemming from the lack of shear, supercells are not likely to be observed.

Difficulties in interpration
Different combinations of CAPE and shear can lead to identical BRN values so the same BRN can represent a myriad of convective situations. Another source of difficulty in forecasting convective storm potential with BRN is that the BRN doesn't include important assessment parameters like wind direction or air moisture. Insignificant levels of CAPE and shear can also produce significant BRN so it is important that CAPE or the lifting index (LI) are used as a primary measure of atmospheric instability first.