User:Knutsodk/sandbox

In distribution section, Iceland extensively discussed but little to no other mention about dispersal.

Mention of prevelance increasing, insert research findings. Climate change has increased prevelance due to transmission seasonality.

Draft:

Under "Means of dispersal", new paragraphs.

The distribution of mosquitos and mosquito-borne diseases are dependent on various environmental factors. In order for a mosquito to transmit a disease to the host there must be optimal conditions, referred to as transmission seasonality. Seasonal factors that impact the prevalence of mosquitos and mosquito-borne diseases are primarily humidity, temperature, and precipitation. Numerous studies conducted in China have observed this positive correlation between malaria outbreaks and these climatic variables. El Niño has also been shown to impact the location and number of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases observed in East Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia and India. Climate change impacts each of these seasonal factors and in turn impacts the dispersal of mosquitos.

Climatology and the study of mosquito-borne disease have only been present in the past 100 years, however studies are able to utilize historical records of weather patterns and distinct symptoms associated with mosquito-borne diseases to trace the presence of these diseases in relation to the climate of the period. Statistical models are being created to predict the impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases using these past records. These models can be utilized in the field of public health in order to create interventions to reduce the impact of these predicted outcomes.

Two main types of models are used to predict mosquito-borne disease spread in relation to climate: correlative models and mechanistic models. Correlative models focus primarily on vector distribution and generally function in 3 steps. First, data is collected regarding geographical location of a target mosquito species. Next, a multivariate regression model will establish the conditions under which the target species can survive. Finally, the model can determine the likelihood of the mosquito species to become established in a new location based on similar living conditions. The model can further predict future distributions based on environmental emissions data. Mechanistic models tend to be broader and include the pathogens and hosts in the analysis. These models have been used to recreate past outbreaks as well as predict the potential risk of a vector borne disease based on an areas forecasted climate.

Mosquito-borne diseases are currently most prevalent in Africa, Asia, and South America. Emergence of vector-borne diseases in Europe have recently been observed. A weighted risk analysis demonstrated associations to climate for 49% of infectious diseases in Europe including all transmission routes. One statistical model predicts by 2030, the climate of southern Great Britain will be climatically-suitable for malaria transmission P. vivid malaria for 2 months of the year. By 2080 it is predicted that the same will be true for southern Scotland.

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