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Atmospheric hazards •	Tropical cyclones: Distribution and frequency, Classification, Associated hazards, Damages, Influence of climate change. •	Most commonly felt hazard Usually in combination: Hail, Lightning, Rain, Wind, Freezing rain, Heavy snow(Lake effect snow, Severe heat/cold, Fog). • Vulnerability: broadly defined as the potential for loss. Reflective of the exposure and sensitivity of a system to hazardous conditions, and the ability of the system to cope, adapt, or recover from the effects of these conditions. •Mitigation: Any action taken to physically reduce the exposure of a community to a hazard (built structures). Often take the form of engineered structures, such as levees and dams. •Adaptation: Any action taken to reduce the sensitivity of a community to a hazard (behavioral). Focus on improving education and communication, writing and enforcing zoning laws, and strengthening social networks. • Warning: Hazardous weather is occurring, imminent, or likely. Weather conditions pose a threat to life or property. Take protective action! • Watch: Risk of hazardous weather has increased significantly, but its occurrence, location, or timing is still uncertain. Hazardous weather is possible. Stay aware and stay informed. •Advisory: Used for less serious conditions than warnings, that cause significant inconvenience and, if caution is not exercised, could lead to situations that may threaten life or property.
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•	On average, 85-90 named storms per year (only ~10 affect N. America) •	Northwest Pacific greatest frequency •	Philippines & Japan greatest probability of strike •	USA/Japan has the costliest events •	Bangladesh most vulnerable (7 of 9 deadliest cyclones) Storm Surge •	A “bulge” of water pushed ahead of the tropical cyclone caused by low atmospheric pressure and high winds. •	Greatest potential threat to life and property.

High Winds & Heavy Rain •	Typically, higher winds are associated with greater damage unless proper mitigation strategies are in place. •	Many tropical cyclones can produce rainfall amounts of 15 – 30 cm. •	Slower moving storms produce more rain than faster moving storms.

Tornadoes •	Most likely to occur in the NE quadrant of the hurricane. •	Can occur within 150 miles of the coast, and can occur for several days after landfall.

•	Hurricanes are measured directly and indirectly: •	Direct measurements: reconnaissance aircraft (Hurricane Hunter), buoys, radio sondes. •	Indirect measurements: Satellite imagery and Doppler radar. •	Tropical cyclone classification scales: •	Saffir-Simpson scale •	Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale •	Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale •	These scales rank hurricane intensity based on its physical characteristics (e.g., sustained wind speed, storm surge, or atmospheric pressure). •	Formed: 22 October 2012 •	Tropical Storm: 22 October (+6 hours) •	Tropical Cyclone: 24 October •	Landfall in Jamaica on 24 October as Category 1 •	Landfall in Cuba on 25 October as Category 2 •	Post-tropical cyclone: 1500 EDT 29 October

•	Post-tropical cyclone Sandy made landfall southwest of Atlantic City, NJ at 1600 EDT 29 October, 2012.

•	Impacts from Florida to Maine. •	59 confirmed deaths and 1 missing person •	Economic damages between $20 billion and $50 billion USD –	Direct damages and lost economic income •	Great impacts in the mid-Atlantic (Washington DC – NYC) –	The East River overflowed its banks, flooding much of Lower Manhattan. “Destruction of the storm was the worst disaster in the 108 year history of the New York City subway system”.

•	Environment Canada issued a wind warning on 29 Oct. 2012 •	Southern Ontario experienced sustained winds of tropical storm force, with gusts up to 95 km/hr •	1 fatality and dozens of injuries in southern Ontario •	145,000 customers without power by 30 October 2012 •	Hundreds of flights from Toronto International Airport, the Ottawa MacDonald-Cartier International Airport, and the Toronto City Airport were cancelled. •	50,000 homes and businesses in Quebec lost power

•	Post-tropical storm Sandy made landfall in NJ at approximately high tide on a full moon (spring tide). •	High tide + storm surge = significant flooding •	 Canada: influence of weather system near the Great Lakes

Gene Morizzo, a security guard at an ocean apartment complex in nearby Rockaway Park, said about half of the 300 or so residents insisted on staying behind, noting that Irene didn't hit the story hard a year ago amid the same warnings.

"I kept telling people it's a mandatory evacuation. They said, 'Oh it's nothing, Irene this. Irene that.“

Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com •	Cyclonic storms 4th greatest killer: •	No.1: BioHazard •	No. 2: Drought •	No. 3: Floods •	Annual damages >$10 billion •	‘Katrina’: >$125 billion damage in one event •	Associated hazardous elements: •	Winds + debris •	Rainfall → flooding & mold •	Storm surge (most deadly of all elements) •	Most deaths due to drowning or collapse of poorly built housing (e.g. mobile homes) •	Potential hurricane destructiveness: a measure combining hurricane strength, duration, and frequency. •	Storm surge typically kills more people than any other hurricane hazard. Hence, evacuation orders are usually issued for storm surge hazards, not wind. “Run from water and hide from wind” •	Shadow Evacuation: Refers to those people who evacuate despite being outside of the evacuation zone. •	Dangerous!

•	Issue of serious debate. •	Availability of latent heat versus increased wind shear. •	Current consensus: Climate change will not significantly increase the frequency of events, but it will increase the intensity of those storms that do form. •	Landfall: 12:10 am ADT on Sept. 29th 2003 just west of Halifax. •	Characteristics: Category 2 •	2.0 m storm surge at the head of Bedford Basin. •	158 km/hr (85 knot winds) •	38 mm rainfall recorded at the Halifax International Airport

Shortly after Hurricane Juan made landfall, the mayor of Halifax declared a state of emergency: •	Located in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia •	Provides meteorological information on hurricanes, tropical storms and post-tropical storms. •	Public education and storm preparedness campaigns

•	Thunderstorms and associated hazards •	Supercell thunderstorms •	Tornadoes •	Development •	Geographical distribution •	Fujita Scale & Enhanced Fujita Scale •	Tornado myths •	Forecasting and prediction •	Tornadoes and climate change •	Case study: Goderich, Ontario tornado •	Almost 40,000 thunderstorms daily. •	Associated hazards: strong winds, rain, hail, lightning •	100 lightning strikes per second •	Lightning can be as hot as 30,000 ºC (!) •	Hail can cause billions of $$ in damages •	Intense rain can trigger flash flooding

•	Rotating wind speeds: between 65 – 500 km/h •	Travel speed on ground: up to 100 km/h (additive effect) •	Width: less than 50 m to greater than 1 km •	Duration: less than one minute to greater than one hour •	Distance traveled: few hundred meters to a few hundred kilometers. •	Pressure drop: up to 200 mb – very abrupt!

•	Tornadoes can occur anywhere in the world, given the right conditions: •	Dry, cold air (Canada, mountains) interacting with warm, moist air (Gulf of Mexico) & strong vertical wind shear. •	Approximately 95% of all tornadoes occur in the United States. After the USA, Canada has more tornadoes than any other country in the world. •	Horizontal winds + vertical winds! •	Classified based on the damage they produce as determined during post-storm damage surveys. •	Wind speed is inferred from damage done, rather than directly measured. •	Most common: the Enhanced Fujita Scale of Tornado Intensity (EF-scale). •	Placement on the EF-scale involves expert judgment of eight levels of damage to 28 indicators, including: homes and other buildings, towers, poles, and trees. Tornado outbreaks: A single weather system producing a large number of tornadoes Tornadoes are very difficult to predict: •	Thunderstorms can evolve rapidly over several hours. •	Only a small portion of thunderstorms become supercells, and only about 1 in 5 supercells develops a tornado. •	 “Monster thunderstorms that should produce them don't. Smaller storms that shouldn't, do.” •	Lead times vary significantly. •	Cannot be seen in radar images. Mass Movement Mass movement defined “… displacement of surface materials down-slope under the force of gravity” (text p.155) Rapid (landslide/rockfall, mudslide, snow avalanche) Slow (erosion, creep,swelling soils) Range of movement Falling Toppling Sliding Flowing Soil creep & erosion Subsidence

Multiple-scales

New Orleans: role of subsidence Annual subsidence 5-10 mm per year–1m subsidence in 100 yrs Causes?:

Currently: .3 – 3m below sea level Future +1m subsidence next 100 yrs + 50 cms sea level rise (2100) areas of New Orleans presently 1.5-3m below sea level will likely be 2.5-4.0 meters or more below sea level by 2100.

•	Worldwide Distribution •	>500 active volcanoes worldwide •	90% at edges of tectonic plates •	Zones of volcanism often earthquake zones •	Rift (a.k.a “spreading centres”): mostly undersea, lots of magma, little explosivity •	e.g. Laki, Iceland 1783 •	50 days of lava •	equal to 1/2 volume of Amazon river •	Subduction zones: mostly on land, lots of explosivity, little magma (e.g. Pinatubo, St. Helens, Montserrat) •	Remaining 10% due to ‘hot spots’ •	masses of slowly rising mantle magma •	can emerge away from edges of tectonic plates •	Central Africa has highest number

•	Goma, Congo: 2002

•	Goma (D.R. Congo) ‘hot spot’

•	Frequency •	1,300 volcanoes erupted last 10,000 years •	<Half now considered “active” (510-530) •	Volcanoes classified as: •	Active •	Dormant •	Extinct •	No certainty to classification

•	All erupted volcanoes last 25,000 yrs “active” •	10% of world’s population live near “active” volcanoes •	Volcanoes: Damages •	1900-2000: •	1000 killed/year (but 2 events = 51,000 deaths) •	Worst disasters •	1883 Krakatoa (Indonesia): 33,000 killed •	1902 Mt. Pelee (Martinique): 28,000 killed •	1985 Ruiz (Colombia): 23,000 killed •	Only 5% of eruptions cause death •	Damaging eruptions: •	St. Helens 1980 ($1 billion) •	Iceland 2010 ($1.7 billion)

•	The volcanic hazard Multiple components to overall hazard: •	Pyroclastic flow (nuee ardente): 70% of all killed •	Blasts •	Primary lahar (lake eruption) •	Airfall tephra (dust/ash-->cinders/bombs) •	Lava •	‘VOG’ (CO, CO2, HS, SO2, SO3, Cl, HCl)

•	Secondary lahar •	Ground deformation, earthquake & cone collapse •	Landslide/debris avalanche •	Tsunami •	Famine

•	Mt. St. Helens 1980 •	The changing hazard •	Previously, most deaths due to secondary hazards (Tsunami & Famine) •	Now, most deaths due to direct hazards (pyroclastic flow, lahars & ashfall) •	Hazard increasing→ human dimensions: 1. Human settlement on active/dormant volcanoes 2. Recreation Mt. Taranaki (NZ): -23,000 B.C.: massive cone collapse -Lahars “beyond present coastline” -200 km2 covered, 30 m depth -7000 yrs ago most recent cone collapse -large lahars -8 eruptions since then -explosive & front central vent -Last eruption 1755 -average between eruptions is 340 yrs •	Form as an indicator of danger “Beautiful volcanoes are dangerous volcanoes” •	Volcano Shape as an indicator of danger

•	Volcano measurement Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	________________________________________________________________ •	Monitoring & Prediction Pinatubo: largest eruption in 20th century (populated areas) •	>1 million living in danger zone •	4 months warning (earthquakes, steam-vents, ‘VOG’) •	Intensively monitored •	Mt. Pinatubo 1992 •	Good preparedness •	Mapping & Continuous monitoring •	Evacuation plan •	Communication plan •	 April → June 1992 •	Increasing activity •	June 7th: Major eruption ‘imminent’ •	Evacuation 40km radius •	100,000s of people evacuated •	 June 15th major eruption •	Coincided with typhoon •	>300 killed (collapsing buildings) •	Aeta tribe:

•	Research: non-Evacuees

Eyjafjallajokull – pronounced ”ay-uh-fyat-luh-yoe-kuutl-ul” (island +mountain +glacier)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QmM_oBsNtWY

•	2010 Mt. Merapi Eruption

•	Merapi Disaster: quick facts •	>375 killed •	>300,000 evacuated •	Thousands of flights cancelled or rerouted November 2010 •	Lahars continue to impact communities 2 years later

•	Critical: eruption complexity •	September: increasing seismic activity & ash plumes •	Oct. 25: first eruptions •	Oct. 26: lava, ash & pyroclastic flows (first fatalities) •	Oct. 29: large eruption + 3 km pyroclastic flow •	Officials suggest “activity will now decrease” •	Oct. 30-31: largest eruptions to date, ash falls on Yogya, >3 kilometre high ash cloud •	 Nov. 1: large eruption/pyroclastic flows, >40 killed •	evacuation radius →10kms •	airlines cancel/reroute flights •	 Nov. 3: Largest eruption, refugee camps evacuated >15 kms •	 Nov. 4: 24 hrs continuous eruption, heavy rains + multiple lahars •	Nov. 5: largest eruption since 1870, 17,000 m ash cloud, evacuation radius 20kms, hundreds killed •	Vulnerability reduction: challenges International Herald Tribune MONDAY, APRIL 24, 2006                       YOGYAKARTA, Indonesia The Indonesian Center for Volcano Research and Technology Development recently issued its second most serious alert for Mt. Merapi. All the conditions for an eruption exist, the authorities said. But Merapi's mythical power, not its natural power, might prove too great for the local government to handle. Merapi is unpredictable, and many nearby villagers distrust modern science and the government, turning instead to beliefs steeped in ancient Javanese mythology. Most of the 60,000 people living within striking distance are ignoring the government's call to abandon their homes. A local mystic, Marijan, is the juru kunci (“key holder”) for Mount Merapi and at his small home deep in the jungle on Mount Merapi he receives a continuous parade of visitors seeking information. Marijan gained fame when he predicted the deadly eruption of 1994 that killed more than 60 people, an eruption that nearly caught the government by surprise. So far, only a few hundred people, mostly old women and young children, have evacuated.

Mass Movement: Worldwide distribution Slope steepness key factor Case Study: Caracas, Venezuela: 1999 Multiple simultaneous debris flows Clear human causes (disaster, not mass movement) >30,000 killed Largest ‘modern’ debris flow disaster Case Study: Caracas, Venezuela 1999 Case Study: Caracas, Venezuela 1999 Human Dimensions of disaster?

Rain & mass movement Hazard components Impact pressure (‘mass at speed’) Debris movement Cover Land degradation asphyxiation/suffocation Drowning (debris flows, mudflows) Secondary hazard trigger Tsunami River blockage→flash flood

Landslides as secondary hazards Damages 1970s: >600 deaths/year 1990s-2010: >5-8000 deaths/year Deadliest events: 830,000 deaths (Shaanxi, China 1556) 30-50,000 deaths (Caracas, Venezuela 1999) Billions of dollars damage per year worldwide

Case Study: Turtle Mountain, Alberta 1903 “Frank Slide” Coal mining destabilised slope? Long-Runout debris flows Special category of landslide “Complex slide” Most slides travel horizontally <2X vertical fall Long-runout debris flows 2-25X length of vertical fall Causes (theories):

Avalanche Special category of mass movement Snow is the ‘mass’ Different triggers Recreational skiing Noise Temperature & rain Smaller range of slopes (20-60 degrees) Most avalanches on 30-45 degree slopes Origins: Fracture points within snowpack

Avalanche Two main types: •	Loose-snow (poor internal cohesion) hazard→inhalation •	Slab (poor bonding between layers) most destructive Greatest energy (building destruction) Often triggers other avalanches (100X initial mass) Death by crushing, inhalation

Avalanche speeds range from ‘creep’ to >350 kms/h Avalanche Distribution & Damages High mountain cold environments Avalanche damage now overwhelmingly linked to recreation: Resorts: Skiing/snowboarding Backcountry pursuits: Climbing, snowmobiling, hiking, XC-skiing “High-marking”: Worldwide: Average annual deaths <250 Austria:35 France & Japan: 30 Switzerland & Italy: 25 USA: 14 & Canada: 6 Economic Damages: $ Millions/year Avalanche: Galtur, Austria 1999 Galtur, Austria (1999): Globally, worst avalanche disaster in 30 years 31 deaths & 7 buildings demolished Record snowfalls

Erosion as a natural hazard Often not seen as a ‘hazard’ or disaster (text?) Slow Natural/normal Invisible Can trigger ‘rapid-onset’ events (e.g. landslides) Can be linked to other natural hazards Flood/flash flood Coastal storm surge Volcanic eruption Dust Storm Drought

Erosion Defined as “movement of rock, sediment or soil by erosive agents” (+ gravity) Water Temperature (freeze/thaw) Wind Glacial scouring Faulting (microscale->macroscale) Vegetation & wildlife Special category of mass movement: “Slow-onset event” Most important types of erosion as ‘hazard’ Coastal Soil (wind & water) Thermal (future)

Coastal Erosion Erosion: Causes 1. Natural physical processes (wind, water) 2. Human Causes Ground disturbance (farming/construction) Changes in water flow Vegetation disturbance/removal/change Deforestation Grazing Human settlement Climate change