User:Lacunae/01

Genoa low
An example is over the Gulf of Genoa where, although cyclones are a constant feature over the whole year, they are generally deeper, and have more severe weather in winter than during the summer, when they are, in fact, more frequent.

Vb Cyclones
''For the future scenario period the simulations show a decrease in the total number of cyclones travelling from the Mediterranean to Central Europe. The percentage of Vb cyclones associated with strong precipitation, however, increases. The mean amount of precipitation associated with these cyclones also increases over time''.

''...while the track branches into the Mediterranean area (the V-group of van Bebber), rated as a secondary track system, will decrease in importance. A drop in Mediterranean cyclone activity as a consequence of CO2 doubling had been found by Lionello et al. (2002). More recent studies (Lionello et al., 2008) based on climate models with a higher resolution confirm these findings. Pinto et al. (2006) show evidence of a decline in Mediterranen cyclone activity including cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Genova. They add that Central Europe is an area jointly influenced by cyclones moving in from the Atlantic as well as the Mediterranean Sea and that there is an indication in the scenarios that this will remain the case in the future''.

Northern Future Forum

 * http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f4092632-80d6-11e2-9c5b-00144feabdc0.html
 * http://www.svd.se/nyheter/utrikes/cameron-moter-skeptiskt-norden_7953860.svd

2013 cold spring

 * http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/files/2013/04/arcticoscillation_2013.png
 * http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2013/04/04/nasa-satellite-measures-the-effects-of-greenland-block-that-stopped-spring/

List of Geomagnetic storms
list of geomag events
 * Carrington Event Solar_storm_of_1859
 * December 14 1862 Civil War aurora
 * 14 October 1870
 * 24 October 1870
 * 4-5 February 1872
 * 18 August 1872
 * Aurora_of_November_17,_1882
 * May 1921
 * March_1989_geomagnetic_storm
 * Bastille_Day_event 2000
 * Halloween_solar_storms,_2003

-http://www.solarstorms.org/SRefStorms.html

Royal Academy of Engineering http://www.raeng.org.uk/news/publications/list/reports/Space_Weather_Full_Report_Final.PDF http://www.channel4.com/news/plan-for-solar-superstorm-or-expect-chaos-report-warns http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-21357909

Iceland HVDC
Export of geothermal energy via the longest undersea High-voltage direct current power cable 620 miles 1000km

no more expensive than the next generation of Nuclear

could be completed by 2020

Landsvirkjun

Iceland produces enough electricity to produce enough power for 5 times its population

930 miles 1500km

it could export enough electricity to power 1.25 million homes...The Landsvirkjun study aims to export five terawatt-hours per year, according to AFP. At current energy prices, that could be worth $350 to $448 million every year.

cable could be laid between Britain or mainland Europe.-http://www.landsvirkjun.com/Company/Mediacentre/News/Newsread/1593-

There were 26.3 million households in the UK in 2011. The number of households in Scotland is projected to increase by more than a fifth to 2.89 million in 2035.-http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/press/news2012/number-of-households.html

Depending on the destination country, the cable would need to be between 1,200 and 1,900 kilometers (745-1,180 miles) long.-http://kuokoa.com/proposed-icelandic-undersea-cable-more-than-t-2

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_HVDC_projects#Europe

geothermal in the uk
http://www.r-e-a.net/news/deep-geothermal-resource-has-potential-to-produce-up-to-20-of-uk-electricity-and-heat-for-millions http://www.globalskm.com/Knowledge-and-Insights/News/2012/SKM-report-on-Geothermal-Energy-Potential-in-Great-Britain--Northern-Ireland.aspx http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/may/30/geothermal-energy-uk-power

summer storms
''More than one months’ worth of rainfall fell across portions of the United Kingdom during a 12-hour stretch on the 10th and the 11th, prompting widespread flooding in the South East, Midlands, Northeast, Southwest and mid-Wales. Flash floods and overflowing rivers caused damage to a large number of homes, schools, businesses and vehicles. Several main roadways were forced to close as well due to high water levels. In Ceredigion County, the local council leader declared the floods a 100-year event. An active weather pattern on the 23rd and 24th led to flash flooding and river flooding across parts of the United Kingdom, killing at least one person. Flooding was recorded in central/ northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland as homes, schools, businesses and vehicles were damaged. A number of roadways were submerged as well and landslides blocked both main rail lines that connect Scotland and England. The Association of British Insurers (ABI) reported that at least 68,000 claims were filed due to flooding during the month of June, with payouts in excess of GBP500 million (USD785 million). Combined total economic losses were even higher. A slow-moving storm system brought torrential rainfall and periods of gusty winds across northern sections of the United Kingdom on the 24th and 25th, killing at least three people. Many areas received twice its monthly rainfall average, as floods damaged at least 570 homes and businesses in an area from north Wales to Northumberland. Among the hardest-hit locations came in Morpeth, Newburn, Cheshire, Rothbury and Gilling West. Overflowing rivers also prompted the closure of major roads, railways and bridges. Officials in the UK’s Northeast region estimated damages beyond GBP50 million (USD81 million). Local insurers reported a 52% increase in storm claims. An active weather pattern inundated much of the United Kingdom between the 21st and the 28th, leading to the deaths of at least four people. Torrential rains affected Britain, Scotland, and Wales, as more than 1,100 homes were damaged or destroyed. Several rivers (including the Thames, Ouse, Derwent, Cree and Ruchill) overflowed their banks, which also caused major infrastructure damage and the shutdown of hundreds of roads and railways. Gusty winds led to further damage due to downed trees and power lines. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers, the floods cost insurers as much as GBP500 million (USD800 million). Total economic losses were even higher.''

June-August 2012 was the second wettest such period in the 103-year record, behind 1912.-http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/extremes/201208.gif September coolest in the UK since 1994, Hungary suffering worst drought in 20 years.-http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/extremes/201209.gif United Kingdom 2.3 degrees F below the 1981-2010 average, its coldest October since 2003. Regionally, Scotland has its seventh coolest October on record and coolest since 1993. Finland precipitation across parts of western Finland were double the monthly average. Some stations broke October monthly records.-http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/extremes/201210.gif coolest April in UK since 1989, coldest april in Norway and Sweden since 1998.-http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/extremes/201210.gif wettest june UK, coolest june Finland-http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/extremes/201206.gif July 2012, coolest since 2000-http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/extremes/201207.gif

On average Hebden Bridge floods on average every 5 years.-is our weather getting worse channel 4

Contemporary flooding in Europe
France -http://www.20minutes.fr/societe/1035432-pas-de-calais-autorites-front-inondations Scotland -http://www.reactionsnet.com/RMSArticle/3120065/Scotland-Flooding.html 20-22 November also brought flooding to western Norway 30-60mm in 24 hours possible

Rainfall in August is above normal for most of Østlandet and in parts of Oppland and Hedmark opp mot det dobbelte av normalen. For store deler av landet forøvrig ligger nedbøren an til å bli under normalen og mange områder har fått under 75 % av normalen. Det har vært mange kraftige bygesituasjoner som har resultert i store lokale forskjeller. Stasjonen Kvineshei - Sørhelle (Vest-Agder) har med 276,5 mm (159 %) fått mest nedbør i august etterfulgt av Karmøy - Hydro (Rogaland) med 232,7 mm (178 %), Mestad i Oddernes (Vest-Agder) med 210,7 mm (151 %) og Kvåvik (Vest-Agder)) med 209,0 mm (143 %). Minst nedbør har Veidnes i Laksefjord (Finnmark) fått med 6,9 mm (16 % av normalen), etterfulgt av Lebesby - Karlmyhr (Finnmark) med 11,3 mm (19 %) og Steinkjer - Søndre Egge (Nord-Trøndelag) og Rustefjelbma (Finnmark) begge med 14,0 mm (hhv 21 % og 29 % av normalen). Våtest Liarvatn (Rogaland) målte 78,0 mm den 23. august.

November flood warnings in Norway Vest-Agder Rogaland and Hordaland counties. Flooding in Stavanger and Jaeren earlier in the month.


 * http://www.newsinenglish.no/2012/07/31/torrential-rains-hammered-stavanger/
 * http://www.newsinenglish.no/2012/07/27/more-rain-adds-to-soaked-summer/
 * http://www.newsinenglish.no/2012/07/16/surprise-flooding-hit-troms-hard/
 * http://www.newsinenglish.no/2012/07/11/weather-sets-new-unwanted-records/
 * http://www.newsinenglish.no/2012/07/01/weekend-drenched-by-rough-weather/
 * http://www.newsinenglish.no/2012/03/23/floods-drench-trondelag-counties/
 * http://avisen.dk/emner/oversvoemmelse_1672.aspx


 * http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/vaderaret-2012--manad-for-manad

Extreme Weather Frida
Extreme Weather Frida occurred the night of 6 august and caused great damage, especially in Nedre Eiker. Private stations in the area show significantly higher values ​​than those caught up in the official measuring today. Hakavik Nedre Eiker (Buskerud) measured 99.3 mm on 6 august. The station is not reporting daily and precipitation at this station be collected over several days. In this case, however, refer to the expected value of the clock. Based on the expected course of other stations as well as information from the radar, it is likely that rainfall came during some intense hours. The comparisons are made ​​against the above standards based on the august.

Frida - parts of Denmark and southern Norway 100mm one day many floods and landslips in Norway. Buskerud, Norway worst storm in 50 years on 6 August lead to flash flooding and major damage.

http://www.smhi.se/klimatdata/hydrologi/2.694 http://www.thelocal.se/41930/20120710/ http://www.thelocal.se/41898/20120708/ http://www.thelocal.se/43686/20121008/ http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2172450/Living-edge-House-hangs-precariously-swollen-creek-flood-waters-demolish-foundations-leave-Sweden-sodden.html http://www.thelocal.se/41976/20120712/ http://www.smhi.se/klimatdata/Manadens-vader-och-vatten/Sverige/Laget-i-Sveriges-sjoar-och-vattendrag/juni-2012-inga-hoga-floden-trots-regnrekord-1.22407

http://yle.fi/uutiset/flood_threat_persists_in_western_finland/6325090 http://yle.fi/uutiset/floodwaters_receding/6325403 http://www.helsinkitimes.fi/news/index.php/finland/finland-news/domestic/3887-heavy-rains-bring-floods-to-western-finland http://www.helsinkitimes.fi/news/index.php/finland/finland-news/domestic/3874-flood-waters-to-subside-gradually http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Exceptionally+heavy+flooding+in+Ostrobothnia+forces+many+to+evacuate+homes/1329104902646 http://whatsupfinland.org/english/oulu-flooded-after-storm/

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2142160/UK-weather-Terrified-couple-young-children-rescued-car-roof-swollen-river-flood-alerts-north.html

o
Forcing by melting arctic ice (which reached record low coverage in 2012, warming of the arctic region lowers the temperature gradient between the pole and the tropics which has weakened and slowed the jet stream) or else related to the solar minimum. A slower, weaker jetstream meanders more and can lead to a persistent pattern of Rossby waves. the Rossby waves were displaced at a more southerly location than average. south of the jet stream in southern Europe and across the Balkans severe drought, worst drought for 20 years in Hungary. The persistent set of the jet stream also implicated in the Summer 2012 North American heat wave 2012–13_North_American_drought

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Meteorological History
''Due to the fact that the initiation of an Madden–Julian oscillation is largely unpredictable combined with knowledge that often subtle, and sometimes small, shifts in hemispheric circulation patterns can make all the difference between fine, dry weather and unsettled, wet weather over the UK. Although one reason for the switch in the fortunes of our weather in 2012 may have been the Madden–Julian oscillation, there are other parts of the climate system which are increasingly recognised as having an influence on weather patterns over the United Kingdom. These include North Atlantic Ocean temperatures, solar variability, the circulation of the upper atmosphere (the stratosphere) and the changing state of Arctic ice cover.'' http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/06/29/evolution-of-thursdays-thunderstorms/


 * 7-8 July 2012

Jet stream over UK up over scandinavia and finland before turning south towards the black sea, advected warm moist air off the Black sea orographic lift over mountains of

2012 Russian floods http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/04/26/sunny-march-wet-april-how-the-jet-stream-is-partly-to-blame/

http://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/weather-extremes-provoked-by-trapping-of-giant-waves-in-the-atmosphere

August
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/aug/30/rain-chaos-summer-wettest-years http://www.jbarisk.com/sites/www.jbarisk.com/files/pictures/JBA_and_Met_Office_Bulletin_UK_Flooding_April_July_2012.pdf

November
November 3 lows Egerin (20th), Franziska (24) and Gabrielle (25). -http://alert.air-worldwide.com/EventSummary.aspx?e=669&tp=31&c=1 -http://www.jbarisk.com/sites/www.jbarisk.com/files/pictures/NovemberUKEventBrief.pdf

December
In Wales flooding was reported around the Vale of Glamorgan, Swansea, Gower and Llanelli. In Stonehaven, Aberdeenshire residents were evacuated after sewage contaminated flood waters in the town. landslip closed A890 at Stromeferry bypass. The rail service between Aberdeen and Melrose halted after a landslip at Cairnrobin. Major flooding in Stonehaven, roads in central and east Fife were closed. The A90 was hit in several areas, and flooding also closed the A85 at Comrie, and the A92 at Ardestie.

The Thames Barrier was closed for the first time since 2010 on 26 December as high river flows were set to meet spring tides, alleviate fluvial flooding in the Thames Ditton area. -http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2253624/Thames-Barrier-shuts-time-years-prevent-flooding-London-fresh-Atlantic-storm-promises-rain.html http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-20852642 Thames Barrier raised twice.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20856619

Burton Fleming East Yorkshire 27 December as Gypsey Race overflows into village http://www.thisishullandeastriding.co.uk/Burton-Fleming-residents-bailing-floodwater/story-17693130-detail/story.html http://www.bridlingtonpeople.co.uk/Burton-Fleming-Flooding-update/story-17701035-detail/story.html

Dunham Bridge on the Lincolnshire and Nottinghamshire border closed from 27 December until 4 January due to high flow levels on the River Trent flooding the access road.

video of a seal climbing up into waterlogged field near to St Ives, Cambridgeshire, 50 miles from the sea became a hit on youtube.


 * http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/jan/06/weather-december-rainfall-sunshine

January 2013
January weather became cooler sudden stratospheric warming... warning of return of milder atlantic weather going from frozen to wet and windy, with risk of flooding returning to still saturated Environment agency suggest piled snow melt more slowly and lead to slower runoff of melting snow into the hydrological system. A severe snow-melt flood event last occurred in 1947 in the UK, which followed one of the most severe accumulations of snowfall between, as Atlantic lows swept in causing a rapid thaw.

flooding in wales 26 January http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21208910 http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2013/01/25/flood-threat-warning-as-heavy-weekend-rain-and-thaw-hit-wales-91466-32680429/

Whitland, Carmarthenshire and Narberth, Haverfordwest and St Davids in Pembrokeshire Solva-http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-21206613 18 buildings across Wales Dolgellau-http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/jan/27/uk-flood-alert-rain-snow

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/9830474/Canoeist-dies-as-melting-snow-and-heavy-rain-bring-floods.html

weekend of 26-27 January saw return of westerly airflow from Atlantic, deep low Jolle anchored to south of Iceland (932 hpa) -http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/01/28/the-worst-storm-in-years/ -http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/373794/Worst-storm-in-years-sweeps-Britain -http://www.theweek.co.uk/uk-news/weather/51222/fresh-weather-bomb-set-batter-britain -http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/295494/Double-weather-bomb-/ -http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2336

Norfolk, Utterby A16 road north of Louth, Lincolnshire http://www.itv.com/news/anglia/update/2013-01-27/flooding-hits-part-of-norfolk/ canoeist dead-http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21217480

March 22
associated with low Christian http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/9947682/Cornish-town-of-Newlyn-flooded-as-wintry-weather-continues-across-UK.html http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/9947562/Weather-chaos-as-snow-and-flooding-hit-Britain.html http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/mar/22/woman-feared-trapped-collapsed-house http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/mar/22/snow-flooding-travel-disruption-uk -

record amounts were not falling in December, flooding merely due to the saturated ground unable to absorb the rain falling.

ignoring road closures Dulverton.-http://www.thisissomerset.co.uk/Police-blast-drivers-risking-lives-floodwater/story-17663750-detail/story.html

questions asked over preparedness for floods, given that heavy rains were well predicted by the met office.

groundwater flooding bgs blog -http://groundwater-science.blogspot.co.uk/

http://www.reactionsnet.com/RMSArticle/3133811/UK-Flooding.html

BGS report landslides-http://www.bgs.ac.uk/science/landUseAndDevelopment/landslides/home.html
 * ?? 2013? Padstow Cornwall http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2013/03/12/an-interesting-new-rockslide-video-on-youtube/

Analysis
-http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2012/oct/07/north-atlantic-ocean-wet-summer

Association of British Insurers estimated £13 billion disruption to transport and infrastructure over the year from flooding.

management in the wake of changed legislation, 2010 Flood and Water Management Act which introduced new statutory duties to local authorities. some transferred but complete adoption expected by December 2014.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2013/2012-weather-statistics

Summertime weather patterns are generally slower to change than in winter.

announced flood relief for leeds city centre, which hasn't flooded in 13? years compared to flood relief for Somerset levels-BBC News 24 Jeremy cooke 7/2/13

Announced February 7 the construction of 93 new flood defence schemes at Rossall, Lancashire, Leeds city centre and Grimsby Docks and Great Yarmouth. Labour Party shadow environment secretary, Mary Creagh said the investment represented a cut of £60 million a year compared to when her party were in power. Residents in the Somerset levels not in line to see defence work start in 2013.-http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21364056 Criticism that the cost benefit analyses are too skewed towards urban areas rather than rural areas and protecting farmland.-http://www.farminguk.com/News/Government-announces-flood-defence-scheme_24939.html and also the shared model of funding with business etc... may lead to rural and farmland losing out.

Chew Stoke also left off package of new defences. fears that areas with small populations ignored-http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-21367774

flood relief brings benefit of £8 in the future for every £1 spent.-http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/9854974/New-flood-defences-announced-but-is-it-enough.html

-http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/100-new-flood-defences-given-green-light-8484572.html?origin=internalSearch does this list of projects preferentially secure business from floods? http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/damian-carrington-blog/2013/feb/08/flood-defence-spending-cuts

Labour party hosted a flood summit on 7 February 2013 to maintain pressure on government to agree with ABI on successor to the statement of principles. Hosted in Parliament with cross-party MPs councillors from flooded areas, water companies campain groups and insurers-http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/71670/labour_labour_to_host_flood_insurance_summit.html


 * http://www.labour.org.uk/flooding-biggest-threat-uk-faces-from-climate-change,2013-02-07
 * http://www.postonline.co.uk/post/appgifs-blog/2242118/floods-minister-to-meet-all-party-group
 * labour party flood summit http://www.abi.org.uk/Media/Releases/2013/02/Wet_and_getting_wetter__political_consensus_needed_to_tackle_the_biggest_natural_threat_facing_the_UK_says_the_ABI_.aspx http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2274482/Insurers-warns-building-flood-plains-curbed-defences-improved-homes-cover.html -http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/376080/Insurers-plea-over-floods-strategy -http://www.insurancetimes.co.uk/abi-urges-political-consensus-over-flood-cover/1400963.article

ABI february 2013 values + numbers http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21472311

2013
http://www.yr.no/nyheter/1.10889353 http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/news/146242.aspx?month=3&year=2013 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/9905709/Households-must-prepare-for-extremes-after-floods-every-five-days-in-2012.html River Tyne River_Ouse,_Sussex River_Tone in Somerset slightly more put together numbers -http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/mar/02/britain-faces-more-floods-and-droughts

Daily river flows across England and Wales as a whole reached record levels on 48 days last year – the highest since records began over 50 years ago (National River Flow Archive) Haydon Bridge gauging station on the South Tyne near Newcastle has gone from the lowest mean monthly flows on record for the time of year in March 2012 of 6.35 m3/sec (which is 27% of the March long term average (LTA)) to the highest mean monthly flows on record for the time of year in June 2012 of 34.1 m3/sec (which is 399% of the June LTA). Gold Bridge gauging station on the Ouse in East Sussex has gone from the lowest mean monthly flows on record for the time of year in March 2012 of 0.804 m3/sec (which is 28% of the March LTA) to the highest mean monthly flows on record for the time of year in July 2012 of 2.820 m3/sec (which is 310% of the July LTA).

from EA-http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/news/146242.aspx?month=3&year=2013
 * Facts and Figures on extreme weather in 2012
 * 7,950 properties flooded
 * 78 days of 2012 saw flooding (1 in 5)
 * 95 days were officially in drought (1 in 4)
 * A hosepipe ban affected over 20 million people

Criticism of Government (Defra and the Environment Agency)
The Commons Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Select Committee said in February 2013 the Government had been too slow in bringing in measures to protect homes and businesses from the impacts of flooding, with ministers not showing enough urgency in implementing drought and flood resilience. The committee raised concern that local authorities and the Environment Agency are not paying enough attention to dredging and maintaining water courses, which can have a major impact on flood risk.

2012 Floods
NFU council members, The agency was accused of failing to maintain waterways across the country and of prioritising environmental management over work like dredging. It was also accused of hampering farmers who want to take the initiative themselves with unnecessary red tape. Representatives of the agency said it could only work within policy framework set by Defra. EA said dredging river beds was not a solution to flooding. He explained that deepening the river bed reduced the velocity of the river and the slower flow of water scoured silt from the riverbed less effectively.

Curry and Hay Moors in Somerset SSSI left flooded for several weeks. The EA said that pumping the stagnant water into the river tone could have cuased fish deaths EA response - Country Land and Business Association failing to prioritise flood protection and of not being strong enough to secure adequate funding from Government, EA too focussed on water quality and implementation of european directives and not flooding. Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management investment in sustainable flood infrastructure that long standing budget cuts have seen river maintenance reach an all time low.

NFU deputy president Meurig Raymond said it was critical that the Environment Agency and the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) put far more funding into maintenance budgets and that Defra policy re-balanced the weighting for flood defence spending to give greater consideration to high value farmland.

http://www.theyworkforyou.com/whall/?id=2013-02-27a.131.0 http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmhansrd/cm130227/halltext/130227h0002.htm -- Environment Agency build a snowman to prevent flooding as snow melted in January 2013 described as bizarre. theoretically sound advice, though unlikely to help on the scale needed.

Chris Smith
Head of the Environment Agency

In a claim said to be reminiscent of British Rail's ' the wrong type of snow excuse'. The head of the Environment Agency Chris Smith drew criticism from Meteorologists and an MP said areas of Britain were facing future problems due to climate change and a "new kind" of rain.

Chris Smith said "We are experiencing a new kind of rain. Instead of rain sweeping in a curtain across the country, we are getting convective rain, which sits in one place and just dumps itself in a deluge over a long period of time. From the point of view of filling up the rivers and the drains, that is quite severe."

Ian_Liddell-Grainger MP for Bridgwater and West Somerset Constituency reacted angrily to the comment said the Environment agency "should be doing a better job, or be closed".http://www.thisiscornwall.co.uk/Fury-peer-s-wrong-type-rain-comment/story-18066695-detail/story.html http://www.thisisbath.co.uk/Clouds-horizon/story-18059057-detail/story.html '''What the EA staff do on the ground is great, but in strategic flood defence terms it is not fit for purpose and it is failing. Everyone agrees that the Parrett and the Tone need to be dredged, and there is a long list of pumps and pumping stations and equipment that need upgrading and improving, but it isn’t being done.'''

Meteorologists Bill Giles and Philip Eden. -https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/02/25/chris-smith-slapped-down-again/

"The Environment Agency last week was at pains to point out what Lord Smith, their chairman, had really meant: 'Lord Smith has consistently said that we are seeing increasing instances of convective rain.' That, of course is not what he actually said."

Lord Smith misrepresented by the Sunday Telegraph-http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/03/30/still-waiting-for-chris-smith/

Met Office
Met Office report into the switch from dry to wet conditions states that the advice provided in the probabilistic and experimental long-range outlook for April to June 2012 issued in March 2012 ‘was not helpful’ to our government customers. Met Office apologises for warning of 'dry spell' before wettest April on record.

Pre-flood recommendations
Even before flooding began in early 2012, a Commons Public Accounts Committee report critical of Defra and the Environment Agency was released, citing a lack of responsibility and slowness in negotiating a revised Statement of Principles with the insurance industry to provide coverage for those homes most at risk of flooding. The committee made five recommendations.
 * The Environment Agency needs to publish a new long-term strategy reflecting current funding realities in which the assumptions underlying its plans are transparent.
 * The Department, Food and Rural Affairs needs to support local authorities to bring in local partnership arrangements that are clear, transparent and not overly bureaucratic.
 * Defra needs to articulate what information it will rely on to evaluate local risk management strategies and be clear about when and where it will intervene should local plans be inadequate. The public needs to know and understand where responsibility and accountability lie.
 * The Environment Agency should look to improve its consultation processes so they support more meaningful local engagement.
 * The government needs to reach an agreement with the insurance industry urgently and work more closely with the industry to ensure insurance cover is both available and affordable.

2013

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2012/may/18/flash-floods-budget-environment-agency

J87
http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/great-storm-1987-forecasting-improved/2191 storm is an extratropical cyclone, with the strongest termed European windstorms

Tree damages were exacerbated by trees still in leaf.

not for storm as a whole. (area over 90 kn). 1 in 200 year return period, means 1 in 200 chance of occurring in any given year. less than 1 in 50 year return period on a line between Southampton and Great Yarmouth.

telegraph

University of Manchester press office: Sting Jets

Schultz journal

http://esciencenews.com/articles/2013/05/01/storm.study.reveals.a.sting.tail http://science.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/05/02/18023788-cause-of-killer-storm-sting-jets-is-found?lite

Thames Barrier
Future barrier at Long Reach or other location as appropriate. about the closures of the barrier being much more frequent.

El Niño
In the past, weak and fading El Ninos have produced stormy weather along the USA east coast and later, lots of snowfall.

El Niño in winter (Dec Jan Feb) sees increase in cyclonic system in europe. increase precipitation from UK to Black Sea. La Niña. Moreover, the position of the European end of the North Atlantic storm track can be affected by the atmospheric pressure anomalies associated with ENSO events. In the case of an El Niño, the North Atlantic lows follow a more southerly route, whereas they follow a more northerly one during a La Niña event.

The strength of the La Niña made the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season one of the most active since 1944; 16 named storms had winds of at least 39 mph (63 km/h), eight of which became 74 mi/h or greater hurricanes.

mm
Aleutian low-http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/edu/k12/semi_p_highs_lows/body -http://www.eopugetsound.org/articles/puget-sounds-climate ''Each fall and winter season, several Pacific low pressure systems impact the Pacific Northwest of North America, producing strong winds up to 60 mph, and causing some power outages and property damage. About once every decade, storms with powerful winds of 70 mph or more pound the region, producing widespread power outages and significant property damage.'' ''Most of the great Northwest windstorms over western Washington have followed similar tracks over the eastern Pacific. Starting over the subtropical central Pacific west of southern California, such storms usually move eastward before swinging up towards the north or northeast as they approach the West Coast. common area of formation is in the Pacific Ocean 35˚-40˚ N and 135˚-150˚ W taking a curved path towards the NW pacific coast.(see mass dotson) El Niño–Southern Oscillation appears to influence the frequency of major Northwest windstorms, with the greatest windstorms occurring in neutral (neither El Nino nor La Nina) years. The lack of major windstorms in El Nino years is not surprising since a number of researchers have found that El Nino periods are often associated with "split flow" over the eastern Pacific, with the Pacific jet stream dividing, with one portion going into Alaska and the other heading towards California. Such conditions tend to shear weather systems apart as they approach the Northwest--which lessens the chance for strong windstorm development. La Nina years often have periods with enhanced high pressure in the eastern Pacific (termed "ridging") that produces enhanced cool flow from the north that is quite different than the typical windstorm pattern in which strong southwesterly flow heads directly into the Pacific Northwest. Since the transition between El Nino to La Nino occurs relatively slowly and can often be predicted at least six months in advance, the connection between ENSO and major windstorms provides a several month "heads up" regarding the probability of a significant wind event.'' highest winds in coastal western Oregon. strongest winds comparable to category 2 or 3 hurricanes. conservative estimate of damage and loss since 1950 due to cyclone- based windstorms over Oregon and Washington of 10 to 20 billion (2009) U.S. dollars (USD). much of the damage to buildings and power lines associated not with direct wind damage but from the impact of falling trees. The substantial terrain of the Northwest produces large spatial gradients in wind speed, with enhanced ageostrophic flow near and in major topographic barriers that produces localized areas of increased damage. The most destructive winds from major Northwest storms are overwhelmingly from the south and generally occur when a low center passes to the northwest or north of a location. The most destructive winds are those which blow from the south, parallel to the major mountain ranges. fatalities.

Comparison to other storms
''The closest analogs to major Northwest cyclones are probably the intense, and often rapidly developing, European windstorms of the North Atlantic that move northeastward across the United Kingdom and northern Europe. Cyclones striking both regions develop over the eastern portion of a major ocean and thus exhibit the structural characteristics of oceanic cyclones, as documented by Shapiro and Keyser (1990).'' A major difference in the environment for the landfalling major cyclones of Europe and the northwestern United States is the substantial coastal terrain of the latter, which contrasts with the lesser coastal topography of the United Kingdom and the European mainland. there is little evidence to date of the Sting jet phenomenon, whereby mesoscale areas of enhanced wind and damage are caused by evaporatively cooled downdrafts."''

Mythology
''Native American legends recognized the occurrence of strong coastal winds and provided explanations of their origin. For example, the Quillayute tribe, which lived along the Quillayute River of the western Olympic Peninsula, told stories about the Thunderbird, a giant bird with wings twice as long as a war canoe. As it flapped its wings great winds were produced. The Quillayutes, like other coastal tribes, were aware that winter windstorms were more intense near the coast, and generally moved to more protected inland camps during the stormy winter months.''

Pacific_decadal_oscillation

2013 extreme weather events
Formerly March 2013 European snowfalls Eastern US and Europe cold weather persisting into march. Arctic oscillation strongly negative during March.

easterly flow by March 25 from Russia to Canada. southerly tracking jet stream.

Sudden stratospheric warming December and January, split the polar vortex in two

Pacific/ North American teleconnection pattern (PNA) Pacific–North American teleconnection pattern

nn
During the 1980s and early 1990s, there were relatively few serious flooding incidents in the UK due to a combination of successful flood defence measures and an absence of the relevant severe weather conditions. Unfortunately this led to a sense of complacency in the minds of politicians and the general public, that the risk of flooding was not a serious issue in the UK.

Lothar & Martin (Baroclinic vs diabatic processes)
Lothar - ''the storm is particularly interesting to study because of its unusual dynamical properties. It is a relatively small-scale extratropical cyclone that travelled across the Atlantic Ocean with moderate amplitude south of the upper-level jet and strongly deepened as it crossed it in its exit region. Note finally that no clear pre-existent upper-level precursor was detected before the explosive growth stage (Wernli et al., 2002).'' http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2009/EGU2009-5567.pdf

the hypothesis for the explosive development of the “Lothar” storm was a bottom-up development induced by a diabatic Rossby wave below a straight and intense upper-level jet without a notable precursor disturbance at the tropopause level (Wernli et al. 2002). This subtle difference in the basic dynamical evolution is interesting and points to the existence of different mechanisms that lead to explosive cyclone development, and to potential forecast failures. The storms described above highlight also the challenge involved in the prediction of such systems, since their evolution depends crucially on mesoscale structures over the generally data sparse oceans, both at the level of the tropopause (wind, temperature) and in the lowest troposphere (also humidity)."

cold air flowing over relatively warm waters (diabatic forcing)

For Lothar diabatic processes contributed more to the observed surface pressure fall than horizontal temperature advection during their respective explosive deepening phases, while Martin appeared to be a more baroclinically driven storm.

baroclinic processes(the temperature contrast between warm and cold air masses).http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml

Lothar is an example of a storm that came under an area of jet-induced upper-level divergence after entering the left exit region while undergoing explosive deepening.

Martin stands out as the system with largest and most constant contributions from VMT ranging between 20 and 40 hPa/6 h (Figure 3g), indicating ascent and adiabatic cooling. Nearly all of this is compensated by similar values of opposite sign associated with TADV. This cancellation, which is found for all other storms as well, is the consequence of air ascending on isentropic surfaces in the area downstream of the cyclone center, where warm advection dominates. Diabatic contributions	(DIABres) are relatively small during the early stages of Martin, but increase to more than 20 hPa/6 h during the main deepening phase on 26 and 27 December 1999, during which time they show a similar magnitude to ITT. DIABRES is again closely related to VMT, as latent heating will depend on ascending motions. However, other factors such as absolute and relative humidity and vertical stability will modify the relation between the two. In order to get an estimate of the relative roles of baroclinic and diabatic contributions, the gray bars at the bottom of each panel show DIABptend as defined in Equation 3. We expect DIABptend to be more robust than the absolute values of single terms, since they are dependent on factors like storm size, propagation speed, and size of the target box. Over almost all analysis times in Figure 3, DIABRES is negative, thus DIABptend indicates the contribution of diabatic processes to pressure drop. For Martin, DIABptend ranges around 30% with highest values towards the end of the deepening phase. From Figure 3, it is 200	evident that VMT is usually of opposite sign to DIABRES and therefore DIABptend is generally calculated using the middle expression of Equation 3. Thus about 70% of the pressure drop during Martin’s explosive development is due to horizontal temperature advection, suggesting an overall baroclinically dominated development.

Lothar has the strongest jet (Figure 2a) of all cases studied here, yet TADV is relatively small throughout most of the developmen	(Figure 3f). θe on the other hand is high during the early stages associated with particularly large values of DIABptend, which is consistent with ideas of diabatic Rossby waves as discussed in Wernli et al. [2002]. These results suggests that the details of the state of development of the cyclone, the interactions with the baroclinic zone, and the actual realization of latent heating from high-θe air are crucially important for determining VMT, TADV, and DIABres. The sole existence of a strong jet or high-θe air is not sufficient to deduce the relative roles of baroclinic vs. diabatic processes.

The relative roles of baroclinic and diabatic processes for explosive deepening of extratropical cyclones have been debated for a long time, mostly on the basis of case studies.

Australian ECL
'''The Eastern Seaboard (ESB) of Australia is a distinct climate entity, with little relationship between rainfall in this area and the major drivers of rainfall elsewhere in Australia such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). One potential cause is the influence of East Coast Lows (ECLs), major coastal weather systems that can produce a significant proportion of rainfall in this region. In this article, a novel approach is used to separate the ECL component of rainfall on the ESB from other sources of rainfall. This method is used to quantify the influence of ECLs on rainfall in this region, with ECLs responsible for 23% of rainfall in the ESB and 40% of widespread heavy rain events. While ECLs are particularly important in the southern ESB and during the cool season (May–October) they can occur in any month, particularly in northern areas of the ESB. ECLs are identified as a significant factor in the weakened relationship between ENSO and rainfall in the ESB, particularly in southern parts; however, these are not the only factor, with local topographic effects also likely to play a role.'''

heaviest rain since February 2009 and the heaviest for May in 12 years. 111mm at Darkes forest coming in as the heaviest May rain in 15 years. Further north, Coffs Harbour saw 106mm, the heaviest during May since 2005. http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/east-coast-low-soaks-nsw/24626
 * 2013 May 23-24, Parts of the NSW coast have saw their heaviest rain in four years from an East Coast Low. Port Macquarie recorded 155mm, the


 * 2013 June http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-22/ses-warns-about-possibility-of-flash-flooding-along-nsw-coast/4773354

Central Europe Floods
Flooding then down their major rivers of central Europe.

the flood crest then progressed down the Elbe and Danube drainage basins leading to high water and flooding

The situation eased after 3 June as the high pressure area "Sabine" moved to the west to a position over the British Isles, and low pressure areas moved west also.

Economists were taking a pessimistic approach to the flooding on the German economy, with the chief economist of the Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce economists are becoming more and more skeptical about the country's growth outlook as they fear that the much-vaunted spring upswing might drown in the deluge. "As the flood levels rose, so did the problems for German businesses," says Alexander Schumann, chief economist at the German chambers for Industry and Commerce

Norway Flooding
http://theforeigner.no/pages/news/norway-flood-warnings-issued-railways-hit/

mh
Vltava cascade, a series of 9 dams used to regulate water levels on the river including the Lipno Dam, Orl%C3%ADk Dam and Salpy Dam.

Three days of heavy rain have wreaked havoc in southeastern Poland, 35 locations registered water levels above normal standards, while in 51 locations water levels had exceeded the alert level. Lower Silesia, located mostly in the basin of the middle Oder River, saw the worst flooding. Jaroslaw Wojciechowski, chief of Lower Silesia's Crisis Management Department, announced that households that suffered damage will receive aid up to 6000 zloty (about 1,845 U.S. dollars) per family. €1400. Neisse Spree River

-

Normally, air moves around the mid-latitudes of the planet in the form of waves, oscillating irregularly between the tropics and the poles, Rahmstorf explained. The main force behind this movement is the big temperature gap between the frigid Arctic and the warmer southerly latitudes. Like a pump, this differential helps to force air northward or southward. The problem, though, is that the Arctic is steadily warming — last year, its summer sea ice hit its lowest extent on record — so the temperature difference is declining. As a result, according to the theory, the wave movement diminishes. At a certain point, pressure systems stay locked in place, causing a weather pattern that persists wretchedly.“This planetary wave resonance is not a local effect but spread around the whole (northern) hemisphere,” said Rahmstorf in an email exchange. , said Rahmstorf in an email exchange. More and more of these events have been occurring since 2003, coinciding with higher temperatures and widening Arctic sea ice loss, Rahmstorf said. Current data from weather satellites point to a repeat of this episode, he added. today — or even several — with climate change, which is considered a longer-term phenomenon. “To confirm the exact role played by climate change in flooding trends in past decades, it would be necessary to have more reliable, long-term series data for rivers with a natural flow regime,” the European Environment Agency (EAA) cautioned on Wednesday.

May 2013 was generally cool in Austria at 0.8 ° C below the long-term mean temperature, with sunshine totals around 20 percent lower than normal. While in the mountains there was 50 percent fewer hours of sunshine.

Euro hw
July 2013 was the warmest and sunniest since 2006 and the third warmest since records began in 1910.

Throughout northwest Europe, air was converging at the top of the atmosphere, having been spat out from the jet stream, far to the north of us. This air had nowhere to go but down. As it drifted earthwards, it became compressed, dried and warmed. Effectively heat-treated from above, and warmed further by the sun-baked earth beneath. The last week of July saw lows move off the Atlantic, ending the heat in the UK, with a brief plume of warm air brought the highest temperature of the year on August 1st as a Spanish plume pattern. The influence of lows on heat led to some severe storms which caused localised flooding in the UK (glasgow ?? July, Nottingham 23 July, Todmorden 25 July, Louth 5 August) brought Mesoscale Convective System to France, Benelux and Germany on the 26-27 July. Heat remained to the South and East of Europe

Milan Tornado

French Wine hail and storms damaged wine crops in Bordeaux and Burgundy 23 July. In all, 37, 000 hectares suffered varying degrees of damage. The cost of the damage has been estimated to be around €4,000 a hectare. http://naturaldisastersnews.net/disaster-news/natural-disasters-events-archive-of-all-natural-disasters-news/severe-weather/1412-2013-08-02-03-new-round-of-severe-weather-in-south-west-of-france

sunniest, driest and second warmest July on record (after 2006) in Austria, where the temperature record stretches from 1767.

first weekend of August in Austria saw severe storms damaging hail and localised flooding -http://austriantimes.at/news/General_News/2013-08-05/49680/Stormy_weather_causes_havoc_in_Austria_

New national heat record set in Austria 3 August 2013 of 39.9˚C in Lesachtal beating the previous highest temperature in Austria recorded in the same place in at 39.7˚C 27 July 1983.

heat led to many fatalities across the continent as bathers took to rivers, lakes and reservoirs to cool off.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/heavy-thunderstorms-block-train-lines-and-cause-damage-in-germany-a-915214.html 06/08/2013 DWD Topic of the day 07/08/2013 Unwetter in Deutschland. Christian Herold So initially formed isolated thunderstorms in the Black Forest, on the Swabian Alp, in the Thuringian Forest and the Fichtelgebirge to Vogtland. Some developed into super cells. In the evening, a squall line stretched from the southern Mecklenburg-Vorpommern to the Alps. The main danger was there of storm or gale-force winds, which especially in the middle of Germany spread occurred. The highest wind speed was on the Wasserkuppe with 140 km / h measured. But even in the lowlands, there was winds of hurricane strength, as for example at the station Querfurt in southern Saxony-Anhalt (126 km / h).

July southern Norway driest since 1904, but in the north double the usual amount of rain. described as opposite to the weather in June. http://www.yr.no/nyheter/1.11162165 http://www.yr.no/nyheter/1.11111981

Summer of extreme weather in China
China experienced six weather disasters with damages of over one billion-dollars during 2013: admitted during and
 * Drought, Central and Eastern China, 1 January - 31 July: $6.0 billion

2013 Southwest China floods
 * Flooding, China, 29 June - 3 July: $1.4 billion and 55 fatalities.
 * Flooding, nationwide, 7 July - 17 July: $4.5 billion 125 fatalities
 * Flooding, Sichuan Province, China, 7 July - 11 July: $1.6 billion
 * Flooding, China, 21 July - 25 July: $1.4 billion
 * Typhoon Utor is likely to also cause more than 1 billion damage.

St Jude
http://goesrnatcentperspective.wordpress.com/2013/10/28/strong-windstorm-in-northern-europe/

Predicted implications for wind power generation, as gusts may lead to shutdowns of turbines which automatically halt when wind speeds exceed 56 mph. http://www.emhi.ee/data/files/autumn_2013.png

Preparation
27 October conference call with Met Office, Environment Agency and Highways Agency on response plans, David Cameron was informed the storm could have a "widespread impact".

people asked to make journeys only if neccessary

warnings that transport infrastructure and power outages would be very likely disrupted.

Met Office working with the Environment Agency and Highways Agency.

The Environment Agency made preparations for flooding clearing culverts and drains in anticipation of heavy rainfall, to minimise flooding.

Highways Agency on 25th October asked drivers to think carefully before setting off on journeys and to prepare for travel disruption on Sunday night into Monday (28 October).

RNLI risk of coastal areas and watching stormy seas

In Suffolk the British Red Cross set up help centres to provide hot food and drinks for those left without power in the days after the storm.

Burkhard
damage to windturbine sunday, south coast battered, trees down, wet soils from recent heavy rain trees in leaf

14 year old boy swept away on west beach at Newhaven on sunday, search in deteriorating conditions led to the injury of a member of the search team. speculated that the

Council preperations
Told to prepare for biggest in decade

sw resiliance centres devon and cornwall

Storm surge
storm surge recorded 1.9m Heligoland binnenhafenmaximum wich was not severe

in Baltic Sea St Petersburg dam closed expected surge of up to 2m http://rbth.co.uk/society/2013/11/01/st_jude_storm_fails_to_breach_petersburg_floodgates_31363.html

Subsequent weather
following the low Christian a series of low pressure systems swept across western Europe bringing winds and rain, though not developing as deeply as storm Christian.

low named Godehard was the strongest of these low pressure areas brought some disruption to Wales. Storm-force winds gusting up to 80 mph left 10,000 homes without electricity, with repairs carried out expected that only 100 would be without power overnight. gust of 89 mph recorded at Mumbles.

03 November 2013 http://naturaldisastersnews.net/disaster-news/natural-disasters-events-archive-of-all-natural-disasters-news/windstorms/1725-2013-11-03-windstorm-godehard-strikes-western-uk#.Un_KyPltZiM

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-24793757

France -http://www.naturaldisastersnews.net/disaster-news/natural-disasters-events-archive-of-all-natural-disasters-news/windstorms/1731-2013-11-03-05-windstorm-godehar-makes-little-damages-in-western-france#.Un_Ye_ltZiM

Forestry
Tree loss was minimal. 10 million trees felled by St. Jude storm. more damage between Wiltshire and Kent with less or no damage seen in the south west and north east areas of Jude's track over Southern Britain, survey Forestry Commission over 2 weeks.

Hilde
Hilde, named Otto by Free University Berlin, and Eino in Finland. Brought record breaking average winds over Sweden...

Aftermath
HelgelandsKraft estimated its costs as between 15-20 million Norwegian kroner from the storm. Cost of 120 million kronor (14,540,000 €).

Initial assessment by insurance industry in Finland put the cost of the storm damages at 30 million euro.

____________________________________________ http://www.pts.se/sv/Nyheter/Om-PTS/2013/Fortsatta-telefonistorningar-i-norra-Sverige-efter-stormen-Hilde---Lagesrapport-18-november-2013-klockan-0900/

Off the Norwegian coast a fire which began in a container on the upper deck aboard the DFDS Britannia Seaways.

a Danish ferry carrying Norwegian destined for Bergen 80 miles to west of Florø. taking part in a military logistics exercise, carrying 300 vehicles. fire broke out at 7pm finally brought under control by 10pm.

fire was contained on the ship following failed attempts to put it out.

32 people on board, of which 12 were Norwegian soldiers.http://www.dagbladet.no/2013/11/17/nyheter/innenriks/brann/skip/30366582/

three rescue helicopters were scrambled, but were unable to evacuate due to the severe weather.

Norwegian national football team on a flight from Herning in Denmark to Molde in Norway was rocked by strong winds and turbulence from the storm. -- Norway Max gust 49 m/s, highest average windspeed 39 m/s. second named extreme weather by Nor Met Inst after heavy rain Geir (21 June).

Finland 33 m/s on coast and 30 m/s inland.

Estonia 26.6 m/s at

17 November Finnish name day Einol and Einari gave name to storm Eino.

Met history
The Northern Atlantic Ocean, Scandinavia and Northeastern Europe are covered by a very strong zonal flow (speed maxima in excess of 50 m/s at 500 hPa and in excess of 70 m/s at 300 hPa). A first trough and its attendant, occluding frontal system move from Finland into Russia, followed by a menacing rapid cyclogenesis which is forecast to track eastward across Central Scandinavia overnight.

... N Norway ...

In the maritime polar air in the wake of the first cyclone, unorganized sleet and snow showers will move onshore in Northern Norway. With deep mixing and 850 hPa winds around 30 m/s, severe wind gusts are possible in the 06 to 12 UTC time frame. Shower activity will continue throughout the forecast period and will even increase again overnight (including the possibility of a few lightning strikes), but then the relaxing wind field should preclude any further severe weather.

... Norwegian Sea, Central Scandinavia ...

Supported by a pronounced short-wave trough, a rapid cyclogenesis will develop over the Norwegian Sea from the morning hours, will likely make a landfall near Mo i Rana, Norway (Sat 21 UTC) and will continue towards Oulu, Finland (Sun 03 UTC). While the models mostly agree on the track, slight variations exist with respect to its timing and major variations with respect to its intensity. Curiously, the two extremes are spanned by the Fri 00 UTC and Fri 12 UTC GME runs, which simulate a core pressure of 980 and 964 (!) hPa for Sunday 00 UTC, respectively. Large-scale lift support is extremely favourable in the afternoon over the Norwegian Sea with a coupled jet configuration (right entrance of the first jet streak and left exit of the second one), so a really powerful development would not be a too big surprise. Aided by this very strong forced ascent, a belt of neutral to marginally unstable profiles is forecast to develop along the cold front, which will hit the Central Norwegian coast around 18 UTC. The formation of a shallow convective line is likely, and the risk of severe (>25 m/s) or even extreme (>32 m/s) wind gusts with its passage seems high enough to issue a level 2 for the Southern flank of the cyclone. While the extreme wind shear is forecast to be mainly unidirectional over the sea, backing surface winds due to frictional effects over land might result in an isolated (and possibly strong) tornado, though neither the topography nor the time of day are particularly favourable. Heavy precipitation may become another, minor issue, as much of the Atlantic moisture is squeezed out with the upslope flow along the Norwegian Alps. Further inland, the cold front will probably soon loose its convective character, but a level 1 was extended well eastward in order to account for traces of CAPE which are still visible on the GFS and WRF forecast maps.

With 850 hPa winds peaking over 40 m/s, widespread wind gusts well in excess of 25 m/s are still expected in Central Sweden and later across the Southern half of Finland even in the absence of any deep convection, especially near the back-bent occlusion. Remember that these threats are not included into the ESTOFEX scheme any more. Nonetheless, it needs to be mentioned that this cyclone can turn into a very serious early winter storm! Please address to your respective National Weather Service in case you need more information.

Cleopatra
http://www.weathercast.co.uk/weather-news/news/ch/81c93b4481a97105e26191ccdd5a6c2e/article/snow_in_spain.html DWD vid http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2iDcfhpaOQ stormy weather in western Mediterranean since the 15 November -http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/11/15/stormy-weather-in-the-mediterranean/ w/ prediction for heavy rain. Schafernaker vid http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/25000837 http://www.gazzettadelsud.it/news/69563/Sardinian-woman-watched--huge-wave--from-cyclone-sweep-home.html estofex http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2013112006_201311190125_2_stormforecast.xml

Trigger for the exceptionally heavy rain was a cyclone, as meteorologists call a strong area of ​​low pressure. Strong low pressure areas are the Mediterranean at this season are not uncommon, even intense rains are normal there: "The rain is there even more important in view of the summer drought and heat, because it represents the vast majority of the total annual rainfall," said the meteorologist Bernard Mühr from the Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. "The intensity of the rainfall over Sardinia is, however, very exceptional." Sardinia was unfortunately several hours under a big cloud and thunderstorm complex. Since a low level is not very big, "as we speak of a size of 50 to 100 kilometers," says Mühr, the precipitation area very limited. The moisture that is discharged almost selectively in large masses. Rainfall of some 100 liters per square meter, then wallow as flash floods slope and down the valley.Interplay of meteorological factors leads to continuous rain

In the case of Sardinia, however, was yet another unfortunate factor added: The Deep Cleopatra is a stationary structure, which means "it lingers for several hours in the same place," said Mühr. The interaction of these meteorological factors led to hours of continuous rain: in the seaside town of Olbia alone, there are about 96 liters per square meter of rain has fallen. "City consumption there were probably many more," suggested the meteorologist Mühr. Usually fall in Olbia throughout November just 56 liters per square meter.

-http://www.focus.de/wissen/natur/meteorologie/heftige-gewitter-ueber-deutschland-das-passiert-wenn-es-am-himmel-blitzt-und-kracht_aid_1053932.html&usg=ALkJrhiHY1WwtThouCdT5oGjQR36n7ss4A

gfg
On the Italian island of Sardinia, the raging storm Cleopatra. 20,000 people are affected, at least 18 have died. Were the people there are not forewarned? That there are thunderstorms, meteorologists could predict safely in Italy. The starch was probably underestimated. It must be said that it is very difficult with extremely heavy rainfall and severe storms to make reliable statements. The effective strength may differ locally strong.

How is the storm arise? Cleopatra is a typical Mediterranean deep with larger embedded thunderstorm complexes. In recent days, the cold air from the north flowed directly into the western Mediterranean. There, finally, a low pressure area has formed. On the east side, however, the water surface was up to 20 degrees Celsius or above. Thus, the air was there well saturated with moisture. The interplay of cold air to the west and warm, moist air to the east has increased the area of ​​low pressure and it set in motion towards the east. On the front of the low pressure area there were strong vertical movements, which led to strong storm Cleopatra.

Would such a strong storm in Switzerland conceivable? Basically, yes. With us, it comes in the summer regularly to heavy rains that are linked to thunderstorms. This can easily degenerate. A storm in the extent of Cleopatra in Sardinia were with us but very unusual.

The storm Haiyan made ​​in the Philippines for great devastation. What have Haiyan and Cleopatra in common? A Mediterranean deep as Cleopatra never, never reached the intensity of a tropical cyclone. But the emergence of the two has in common. Also, the Typhoon Haiyan took by the rise of strong moist air over the ocean its beginning.

Media reports Cleopatra is called a cyclone. Is that right? I would rather speak of a Mediterranean deep, some will also be called Cleopatra medicane. The big difference is that with a Mediterranean deep really arctic air from the north comes into the Mediterranean. In tropical storms this is not the case.

What is a medicane? It refers to a strong Mediterranean deep with hurricane-like spiral cloud structures. Even a so-called eye can occur in the middle. However, the winds do not reach the values ​​of a full-blown hurricane over the Atlantic Ocean.

Haiyan was a typhoon, Sandy was a hurricane, and finally there are cyclones. What distinguishes the three? Basically, the three terms describe the same weather phenomenon. The difference lies in the region in which they occur. From the hurricane is called the Atlantic, from the typhoon in the Pacific, and to the cyclone occurs in the Indian Ocean.

Is the Region of Sardinia predestined for such strong storms? That it can come across the Mediterranean to strong storms in the fall, is normal. The water surface is warm in the summer here. Slowly but steadily the water gives off heat to the air. This may be the case until well into the winter. If there is still to cold air outbreaks from the north, this leads to thunderstorms. However, the strength of Cleopatra can already be referred to as an exception.

In Sardinia it is to continue to rain. What awaits the Italian island? Clear, there is not yet. Weather conditions have a certain inertia and the tendency to repeat itself. I think that more cold air enters the next few days to the Mediterranean and thus to regenerate the area of ​​low pressure. The risk that again comes to heavy rains and severe weather is great. The Sardinians should prepare themselves for the coming weekend.

"Cleopatra is a typical Mediterranean deep with larger embedded thunderstorm complexes." "A Mediterranean deep as Cleopatra never, never reaches the intensity of a tropical cyclone." "I would rather speak of a Mediterranean deep, some will also be called Cleopatra medicane. The big difference is that with a Mediterranean deep really arctic air from the north comes into the Mediterranean.  In tropical storms this is not the case. What is a medicane? It refers to a strong Mediterranean deep with hurricane-like spiral cloud structures.  Even a so-called eye can occur in the middle.  However, the winds do not reach the values ​​of a full-blown hurricane over the Atlantic Ocean."

fore-Cleopatra
A pronounced cut-off low slowly moves to the Southwest over Spain. Rather low geopotential extends eastward across most of the Mediterranean region. Further North, a belt of high pressure with cool and calm conditions extends from the Bay of Biscay via Central Europe to the Black Sea. Steepening lapse rates towards the West, where cold air has settled beneath the cut-off low around Iberia, and seasonably increasing low-level moisture towards the East result in low to moderate CAPE (maxima up to 1000 J/kg) across large parts of the Mediterranean region. Lift support is most plentiful over the Western Mediterranean Sea, which gets overspread by weak warm air advection and repeated vorticity lobes from the South in the periphery of the Spanish cut-off low. The combination of this forcing and instability release over the warm sea can result in the development of several, mostly shallow surface lows. The dominant one is foreast to move from the Balearic Islands to the Spanish East coast on Saturday while slowly filling up. Repeated rounds of thunderstorms will make a landfall in Eastern Spain and extreme Southwestern France, quickly becoming elevated and packed into a stratiform rain shield while moving inland. The heaviest precipitation will likely occur along the Catalonian coast, where widespread accumulations between 50 and 100 mm, and locally even more, seem possible with persistent onshore flow during the forecast period. Though a considerable part of this precipitation will be of stratiform nature, the expected involvement of some embedded thunderstorms makes a level 2 still seem appropriate. Offshore convection will stay surface-based and can spawn a few waterspouts, next to heavy precipitation. Some storms may also benefit from regionally enhanced deep-layer shear up to 20 m/s. Severe wind gusts and small hail are not ruled out in case storms, especially more isolated ones, can attain a better degree of organization.

Over the rest of the Mediterranean region, the synoptic situation turns less conspicuous. However, an almost stationary convergence zone runs eastward from the Golf of Lion across the Tyrrhenian Sea to the Ionian Sea. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected during much of the forecast period in these regions. With weak shear and slow motion, they pose a noteworthy risk of excessive precipitation, which will only slowly diminish overnight. A number of waterspouts may spin up along the main convergence zone or along land breeze fronts.

Historical benchmarking/context
November brings floods to Italy, 2011-2013 has seen deadly floods in Italy during November, 15 Major floods in Italy during the month since 1950. '''In the 50 years between 1950 to 2000, Italy saw 6 major flood events during the month of November. In the last 13 years (2000 to 2013), Italy has seen 9 major flood events during November, with a total of 28 people killed.'''

Calabria
Southern Italian region of Calabria was also affected by heavy rainfall with Catanzaro, Crotone and Vibo Valentia sufering floods, much of area saw between 100 and 200mm of rain in 24 hours. no fatalities reported on mainland.

Pagliarelle – 206mm Albi – 201mm Cotronei – 194mm

Cyclone Bodil, or (SMHI: Sven, FU-Berlin: Xaver) is a winter storm that is currently affecting northwestern Europe. The storm brought damaging high winds across several nations, disrupting transport links and electricity across a large region. Heavy snow falls to Scandianvia. The storm brought the risk of significant flooding, prompting evacuations of coastal communities due to storm surges in the Irish and North seas. The passage of the storm brought cold air from Arctic latitudes with cold and snowy weather, further disrupting transportation and the clean-up in the wake of the storm.