User:Lassie1984/sandbox

--Voter Preference--

-The Stability of Political Preferences

http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/full/10.1146/annurev.polisci.3.1.1

Accessibility models are widely and successfully applied throughout political science (e.g. Krosnick 1988, Aldrich et al 1989, Lau 1989, Ottati et al 1989, Tourangeau et al 1989, Johnston et al 1992, Chong 1993, Jacobs & Shapiro 1994, Cappella & Jamieson 1997, Price & Tewksbury 1997, Huckfeldt et al 1999). Iyengar & Kinder (1987), Iyengar (1990, 1991) are particularly well known. They argue, for example, that when the television news emphasizes defense, then the accessibility of the defense issue increases in the minds of viewers. As a result, viewers base evaluations on the defense issue (see Krosnick & Brannon 1993, Nelson et al 1997a for alternative views of the psychology of media effects). .... The on-line model also suggests that individual preferences are less susceptible to sudden shifts (Krosnick & Brannon 1993:965) than accessibility models would imply. In sharp contrast to accessibility models, the on-line model largely maintains the traditional view of preferences as more stable phenomena (Zaller 1992:50). .... Perhaps the most studied recipient characteristic is the amount of political information the recipient possesses, also known as the recipient's political awareness, expertise, involvement, knowledge, or sophistication (see e.g. Luskin 1987, Krosnick 1990, Sniderman et al 1990, Zaller 1992, Krosnick & Brannon 1993, Delli Carpini & Keeter 1996, Popkin & Dimock 2000). Many political scientists working in this area agree that (a) for one person to change another's beliefs, the information recipient must receive and accept the message (McGuire 1968, Zaller 1992); (b) the most aware individuals are more likely to receive new political information; and (c) the most aware individuals' beliefs are less likely to be changed by new information. The basis for this last point is the finding that well-informed (or highly aware) people are more likely to carefully and critically evaluate the messages they receive (see e.g. Zaller 1992, McGraw & Hubbard 1996, Cobb & Kuklinski 1997).

Krosnick JA. 1988. The role of attitude importance in social evaluation: a study of policy preferences, presidential candidate evaluations, and voting behavior. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 55:196–210

Krosnick JA. Brannon LA. 1993. The impact of the Gulf War on the ingredients of presidential evaluations: multidimensional effects of political involvement. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 87:963–75 [CrossRef]

Krosnick JA. ed. 1990. Thinking About Politics: Comparisons of Experts and Novices. Soc. Cogn. 8:1–158(Spec. issue)

--NAOMS-- National Aviation Operations Monitoring System (NAOMS) was an $11.5 million research and development project by NASA using survey methods to measure aviation safety. The program was created in response to the goal set by the White House Commission on Aviation Safety and Security in 1997 to reduce the risk of air travel accidents by 80 percent over the next 10 years. Krosnick was the lead consultant in developing and implementing the NAOMS suvey methodology.

While crashes remain rare, NAOMS sought to identify and reduce accident precursors and potential safety issues by regularly surveying commercial pilots, general aviation pilots, ground and flight crew members and air traffic controllers. The project was designed to provide broad, long-term measures on trends and to measure the effects of new technologies and aviation safety policies. The project consisted of a random survey with an 80 percent response rate, interviewing roughly 8,000 pilots about safety incidents.

In 2004, NAOMS researchers finished collecting data on the first cohort of pilots, having conducted about 24,000 interviews. Preliminary findings suggested that some safety-related problems were occurring at astonishingly high-rates, and in some cases, as much as four times the amount previously reported by the FAA. The FAA was “extremely unhappy” with the results and called for the program to be shut down. NASA soon cancelled the program. The House Committee on Science and Technology Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight later investigated FAA's role in the ending of NAOMS. Chairman Brad Miller (D-NC) stated the subcommittee found that the FAA did not support NAOMS. In 2006, Associated Press reporter Rita Beamish filed a Freedom of Information Act request for the NAOMS’s data. For 14 months, NASA rejected the request.

In a final denial letter to the AP, Thomas Luedtke, senior NASA official, indicated the data would not be released because the findings could damage the public's confidence in airlines and affect airline profits. Luedtke acknowledged the NAOMS’s results "present a comprehensive picture of certain aspects of the U.S. commercial aviation industry." Significant criticism from the public over NASA’s refusal to release the data and its handling of NAOMS prompted Congress to launch an investigation into the matter. Members of Congress from both sides were very critical of NASA’s handling of the matter and demanded NASA release NAOMS’s results. During an oversight hearing, NASA's administrator, Michael D. Griffin, testified that Luedtke’s reasoning was a mistake and NASA would release the data. However, Griffin cast doubts about the reliability of the NAOMS’s data, cautioning that the data was never validated. Griffin warned, "there may be reason to question the validity of the methodology." On January 1, 2007, Griffin released the NAOMS data.

The NAOMS survey methods were extensively peer reviewed and the methods were adapted from proven survey methods Krosnick had used in similar contexts in published scientific studies that had been extensively peer reviewed. In addition, NAOMS had also been more thoroughly reviewed by internal and external experts. The International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers (IFPTE) sent a letter to Congressman Bart Gordon, then chairman of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology stating, “there was no valid scientific basis for the Administrator's technical criticism of the NAOMS project.” In the National Academy of Science 2004 report, NAS officially recommended “NASA should combine NAOMS methodology and resources with the ASRS program data to identify aviation safety trends."  After thorough review, the Office of Management and Budget, which reviews all federal survey projects to ensure they are optimally designed, approved NAOMS.   The union representing the majority of commercial pilots in the United States deemed NAOMS “tremendously valuable”.