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Prognosis and risk factors

See also: COVID-19 pandemic death rates by country

The severity of COVID‑19 varies. The disease may take a mild course with few or no symptoms, resembling other common upper respiratory diseases such as the common cold. In 3–4% of cases (7.4% for those over age 65) symptoms are severe enough to cause hospitalisation.[233] Mild cases typically recover within two weeks, while those with severe or critical diseases may take three to six weeks to recover. Among those who have died, the time from symptom onset to death has ranged from two to eight weeks.[79] The Italian Istituto Superiore di Sanità reported that the median time between the onset of symptoms and death was twelve days, with seven being hospitalised. However, people transferred to an ICU had a median time of ten days between hospitalisation and death.[234] Abnormal sodium levels during hospitalization with COVID-19 are associated with poor prognoses: high sodium with a greater risk of death, and low sodium with an increased chance of needing ventilator support.[235][236] Prolonged prothrombin time and elevated C-reactive protein levels on admission to the hospital are associated with severe course of COVID‑19 and with a transfer to ICU.[237][238]

Some early studies suggest 10% to 20% of people with COVID‑19 will experience symptoms lasting longer than a month.[239][240] A majority of those who were admitted to hospital with severe disease report long-term problems including fatigue and shortness of breath.[241] On 30 October 2020, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom warned that "to a significant number of people, the COVID virus poses a range of serious long-term effects." He has described the vast spectrum of COVID‑19 symptoms that fluctuate over time as "really concerning". They range from fatigue, a cough and shortness of breath, to inflammation and injury of major organs – including the lungs and heart, and also neurological and psychologic effects. Symptoms often overlap and can affect any system in the body. Infected people have reported cyclical bouts of fatigue, headaches, months of complete exhaustion, mood swings, and other symptoms. Tedros therefore concluded that a strategy of achieving herd immunity by infection, rather than vaccination, is "morally unconscionable and unfeasible".[242]

In terms of hospital readmissions about 9% of 106,000 individuals had to return for hospital treatment within two months of discharge. The average to readmit was eight days since first hospital visit. There are several risk factors that have been identified as being a cause of multiple admissions to a hospital facility. Among these are advanced age (above 65 years of age) and presence of a chronic condition such as diabetes, COPD, heart failure or chronic kidney disease.[243][244]

According to scientific reviews smokers are more likely to require intensive care or die compared to non-smokers.[245][246] Acting on the same ACE2 pulmonary receptors affected by smoking, air pollution has been correlated with the disease.[246] Short term[247] and chronic[248] exposure to air pollution seems to enhance morbidity and mortality from COVID‑19.[249][250][251] Pre-existing heart and lung diseases[252] and also obesity, especially in conjunction with fatty liver disease, contributes to an increased health risk of COVID‑19.[246][253][254][255]

It is also assumed that those that are immunocompromised are at higher risk of getting severely sick from SARS-CoV-2.[256] One research study that looked into the COVID‑19 infections in hospitalised kidney transplant recipients found a mortality rate of 11%.[257]

Men with untreated hypogonadism were 2.4 times more likely than men with eugonadism to be hospitalized if they contracted COVID-19; Hypogonad men treated with testosterone were less likely to be hospitalized for COVID-19 than men who were not treated for hypogonadism.[258]

COPIED FROM copied from COVID-19