User:Lvivske/sandbox

--Львівське (говорити) 15:53, 26 February 2014 (UTC)

Russian involvement

 * On December 14 two Russian IL-76 military transport aircraft were stationed in Hostomel, in Kiev region with unknown purposes.
 * On January 22, former SBU chief Stanislav Rechinsky said the situation in the country was not a civil war, but a Russian invasion. "It is known from a number of sources that 'specialists' from the FSB work with the SBU, and that Russians are wearing the Berkut uniforms - and they kill [...] The sources also connect Lutsenko’s kidnapping and confirmed the murder of Verbytsky with Russia.
 * DMYTRO BULATOV: KIDNAPPERS SPOKE RUSSIAN WITH RUSSIAN ACCENT
 * "During the press conference, Bulatov has repeatedly stressed that he believed he was abducted by the Russian special forces. In addition, the activist alleged that leader of the Ukrainian Choice Viktor Medvedchuk might be involved in his abduction." ref
 * On January 24 MP Anatoliy Hrytsenko stated "Russian Special forces are present in Kiev, including Maidan, and they work with the Ukrainian special services."
 * On January 26 it was reported and captured on video the involvement of Russian SSO Special Operations forces operating in Mykolayiv. The Russian embassy in Ukraine denied these reports as "provocative".
 * sso: "They repeatedly evade questions as to who they are and why they aren’t wearing insignia – which is against the law – saying only that they “were called to patrol to ensure civil order”, and “came here to protect the eternal flame to Soviet heroes” (a monument in the city)." / "Russia’s army has a special operations division, whose official mission is to protect Russian interests abroad, that also uses the acronym “CCO”. However, there is currently no proof that the men in the video were Russian and not Ukrainian"
 * Putin advisor Glazev calls for force in ukraine, federalization, for south to join russia
 * russia threatens military intervention


 * russian plans to divide ukraine >kolesnichenko proposes federalization >so does medvedchuk aka putin ally > also tsarev
 * above ref unian: "Ukraine is already perceived as a future battleground. Way already thrown units, which must be before the official start of serious operations ... It is clear that modern Ukraine - it is not Georgia, occupation of the airport in Kosovo. Ukraine - a large country. Relative it can be applied much more subtle means - will use the Ukrainian forces, politicians, only if accompanied by some Russian units "- says ex-adviser to Putin."
 * General Viktor Ivanovich Palivoda:
 * "Russia refuses to admit that Ukraine is a sovereign state." and " refuses to acknowledge itself as foreign country in relation to Ukraine."
 * Russia has stated it is ready to intervene in Ukraine should the gov't ask it
 * "It is not a secret that Russian is trying to impose in Ukraine an idea of federalization."
 * "high-rank Russian officials and the official media find no other words for Ukrainians except terrorists and extremists" and protests as "mass disorders of the Ukrainian nationalists inspired by the overseas countries."
 * Russian Duma refers to the Euromaidan movement as "“the attempt to depose the legitimate government institutions by force”
 * "It’s more likely that limited contingent of Russian troops will be sent to Ukraine in pretense of provision of security of strategic locations (like pipeline system, nuclear power stations, port and air facilities, etc), which capture by terrorists could have harmful effect in Europe scale."
 * "with or without announcement of the state of emergency would apply to GASPROM for aid. As a result, private Russian militarized security formations would be brought at the territory of Ukraine and deployed along the gas pipelines."


 * article on death squads with russian accents, 2 other journalists attacked by ethnic russians


 * death squads: military expert and psychologist Oleksiy Arestovych believes Russian security forces are on the ground here and assisting the government in its attempts to quell public dissent  - “We are dealing not only with the FSB (Security Service of Russia) conspiracy, it is a mix of criminals, police and with the government,”; death squad tortures told Lutsenko they are adherents of a "Slavic Union" with Russia and Belarus;


 * snyder russian could stage internal coup


 * South wants to separate, form Malorus, be federative state
 * more on malorus
 * great article on federation stuff
 * communist party wants no president, but federal system
 * 40 russian spec ops in kiev

Cossacks?

 * ref : "“the phase of active intervention in Ukrainian affairs,” and this time plans to use “’citizen volunteers,’” supposedly outraged by “’fascists’” in Ukraine to suppress the Maidan by force." - "The Kremlin has been doing things like this at least since the Spanish Civil War in the 1930s, “where the regular [Soviet] army acted under the guide of volunteers.” This time, in Ukraine, Shmulyevich says, Moscow will use “as internationalists” the state-organized (“registered”) Cossacks and “possibly” Russian criminal elements as well"
 * "January 28 declaration of Viktor Vodolatsky, a Duma deputy who is also Supreme Ataman of Cossack Forces of Russ and Abroad, who said he was ready to dispatch 15,000 Cossacks to restore order in Ukraine if Ukrainian Cossacks requested that." (ref above)
 * more on cossacks

antimaidan

 * great article on antimaidan, after results, and non payments

mil
- separatists in crimea

ukr forces
west: 5 mechanized, 2 artillery, 1 airmobile, 1 rocket, 1 armored (chernihiv) south-east: 3 mechanized, 1 artillery, 1 airmobile, 0 rocket, 1 armored
 * Ukrainian Air Force are split into west, center, and south (west/center are mostly in the center), only south is in YANU territory
 * Ukrainian Ground Forces - brigades:

The commanders called protesters' occupation of government buildings “inadmissible" and said that “further escalation of confrontation threatens to integrity of the country.” The decision to send Yanukovych a special letter was made at a general meeting of the ministry’s office the day before and, according to Anatoliy Hrytsenko, an opposition lawmaker and former defense minister, the officers had been pressured to support Yanukovych. “I know for sure that officers, who were not agreeing to the 'common approval' are now being pressured by their commanders and chiefs,” Hrytsenko said on his Facebook page. In its separate statement, the Defense Ministry also denied the reports that army was allegedly involved in assisting the police during the ongoing political crisis. -- Oksana Grytsenko
 * Jan. 31, 8:40 p.m. -- After two months of unrest, Ukraine’s army got involved in the ongoing political crisis, when the Ministry of Defense unexpectedly issued a Jan. 31 statement, asking President Viktor Yanukovych to “apply measures for stabilizing of situation in the country.”

ref
 * more on the statement

Defections

 * defected: Ivano Frankvist Alpha Group sides with people]
 * Ivano Frankvisk orders all MVS troops back to province


 * 2 divisions of paratroopers transferred from army to police


 * NATO saying army should remain neutral

civil war
lutsenko calls for police and military to defect

- also, tyahnybok did already, kirovohrad troops, and theres the SMS pic

lviv self defense units link also, anti-maidan self defense units / vigilantes in crimea link cossacks

this ref =


 * cossacks of crimea ready
 * klitschko says anti-maidan is trying to provoke civil war
 * filaret says force will cause civil war
 * russian military planes near kiev
 * ref - "Parubiy urged people to continue the formation of self-defense groups, noting that when the number hits over six thousand people, it will be equal or more than the total number of officers in of Berkut, the special riot police unit, and the protesters will be able to not only defend themselves, but also go on the offensive. --Interfax-Ukraine"
 * ref - former read admiral calls for military coup against yanukovych, defiance
 * ref - "Speaking on Hromadske TV, opposition leader Vitali Klitscho says that if the government continues to use violence as a tool for ending Ukraine's political crisis, civil war cannot be ruled out."
 * yshenko warning
 * kravchuk says on brink of civil war


 * "Ihor Smehsko, who headed Ukraine's security service when Mr. Yanukovych was prime minister in 2003-2004, predicted Monday that in the event of mass repression the armed forces and security services will split along the country's East-West cultural divide."


 * "The army and militia are unreliable, the internal troops are untested, and the special forces are too few. Do you really want to risk provoking a civil war that could destroy the country and that you will not be able to win?" ref motyl


 * "The riot police of Berkut can be counted on to beat protesters a few more times, but the behavior of the regular police, and the Ukrainian army, is far less predictable. Some reports have already indicated that policemen have supported the protesters, at least in the western part of the country. If Yanukovych tries force and fails, then Putin might claim that Russian military intervention is needed to restore order." - "Ukraine, for all of its visible political divisions, is a single country with a big army whose people generally believe in sovereignty. A Russian military intervention would bring bloodshed on a scale that people of the region know all too well." ref snyder


 * lviv berkut says unreliable, says they wont support, says they are fed 7 minute tape showing protesters attacking berkut; 80% already in kiev - guys on frontlines are brainwashed


 * ref 10% of donbas supports secession, poll from 2012


 * mayor sumy says on brink of civil war, throws support behind euromaidan
 * bonds rise on civil war threat
 * UKRAINE PROTESTS LOOK LIKE REVOLUTIONARY PARIS
 * kolesnichenko says civil war coming


 * poltava resolution saying civil war may happen, worried

Help: number of protesters in other Ukrainian cities
dec 8 uzhhorod 3,000??? ref
 * odessa - up to 1,000 ref not sure if it's 1000 over 3 days or in one event