User:M.K. Jasper/sandbox

Precipitation
Israel is expected to experience a 10% reduction in overall rainfall by the end of the 21st century due to climate change. This change will result in water scarcity that is coupled with increased salinity. As a result of this change, the flow of the Jordan River will decrease by 22%. Currently Israel does not experience a significant difference in precipitation, but they do however experience a difference in distribution, frequency, and intensity of rain events such as an increase in rainfall in some regions and a decrease in others. Since 2000, there are less rainy days, but the rains are more intense. Long dry periods in the winter and extreme rain events with cold weather can negatively impact agriculture and natural ecosystems. '''These extreme weather events will result in both droughts and flooding, which is especially a danger in urbanized settings. The change in rainfall can be serious considering Israel's already arid climate.'''

Sea Level Rise
The increase in rainfall will cause rising sea levels along the Mediterranean basin. The rising sea "will ultimately affect all of Israel's coasts, from Rosh Hanikra to the border of the Gaza Strip," potentially leading to saltwater infiltration of aquifer groundwater and degrading coastal cliffs. Saltwater infiltration will affect agriculture through damaged crops which is a large source of revenue for Israel. As of right now, the approximate rate of sea level rise is 0.4-0.5 cm per year. "By 2150, the rise in the sea level in Israel is expected to be approximately 5 meters." Israel's long coastline will require infrastructure such as "residences, hotels, heritage sites, factories" and other major projects to be moved. Due to climate change, the sea will also become warmer and more acidic which has the potential to decrease the biodiversity of aquatic species.

Water Resources
Due to the predictions of decreases in precipitation and increases in temperature, the IPCC "general circulation models projections agree on drying scenarios in the region by the end of the 21st century." Since Israel is located in an arid/semi-arid region, any changes to precipitation in the region will ultimately severely affect water resources. For agriculture, Israel depends heavily on irrigation and water availability. The decrease in water availability can be seen in the decrease in incoming freshwater into the Sea of Galilee. Any change in freshwater will also result in a change in salinity of the water. Israel's main source of water is the upper Jordan River. A decease in spring flow and streamflow of the Jordan River has already been documented. Overall, stream flows in the region have been documented as decreasing at a faster rate than rainfall measurements. These data indicate that evaporation is affecting the Jordan River more than a decrease rainfall.

Ecosystems
'''Rising temperatures due to climate change are severely impacting habitats especially those located in coastal regions. Coastal regions are also experiencing an increase of invasive species entering the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal. Dozens of species that are from more tropical environments are able to migrate to Israel's waters with the rising ocean temperatures. As a result of these changes in the ecosystems, Israel is working to protect its 118 mile coastline and ensure protection of biodiversity as well as keeping existing habitats safe from human interference. The Rosh Hanikra Marine Reserve has documented the survival of key species as a result of just a few years of protection through conservation. Since 2019, Israel has increased its coastline protection from 0.3%  to 4% protected areas. Since then, another 4.5% will be protected in the coming years. These levels of protection are not in line with the 2020 target of 10% protected coastline. In terms of land, 24% of Israel is considered nature reserves. The establishment of protected areas is becoming increasingly difficult with the influx of the population.'''

A source of hope for the ecosystems of Israel can be seen through a study that simulated climate change projections on native Israeli plants. In the study, a multi-year induced drought did not show to have a significant or detrimental affect on the semi-arid/Mediterranean plants tested. While the study only tested plants from two major ecosystem types, it challenges claims that climate change will have serious negative effects on all ecosystems of Israel.

Mitigation
Despite Israel having low overall all emissions in comparison to other countries, Israel must either mitigate the effects of climate change or adapt. According to the INDC (Intended Nationally Determined Contribution) of Israel, the main mitigation target is to reduce per capita greenhouse gas emissions to 8.8 tCO2e by 2025 and to 7.7 tCO2e by 2030. Total emissions should equal 81.65 MtCO2e in 2030. If no mitigation efforts are implemented, the emissions would reach 105.5 MtCO2e by 2030 or 10.0 tCO2e per capita. To reach the target, the government of Israel wants to reduce the consumption of electricity by 17%, produce 17% of electricity from renewables, and shift 20% of transportation from cars to public transport by 2030. '''In Israel's latest report on GHG emissions in 2023, emissions were measured at 77.415 MtCO2e. These levels are a 35% increase from the emissions from 1996. However, due to mitigation tactics, they are a 1.5% decrease from the levels in 2015. The report also concluded that fuel combustion and energy industry are the largest source of emissions.'''