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Madelaine Southwell

Early Warning Systems
In the event of a natural disaster, the term “early warning signal” is derived from the emerging circumstances that are dangerous, and action can be enabled to reduce the risks of a harmful outcome. Currently, early warning signals are used for mass casualty natural effects such as storms, floods, droughts, landslides, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis etc. Other geophysical components that use early warning signals are wild-land fires, locust plagues, and famines. The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN-ISDR) defines early warning as the delivery of well-timed and current information, through well-known institutions, that allows individuals exposed to a hazard to take action to avoid or reduce their risk and people for effective response. To effectively complete an early warning system, it must be comprised of four interacting elements. First is risk knowledge, having the knowledge of relevant hazards, and the knowledge of what these risks have on people, and its vulnerability on society in conjunction to the hazards. Secondly is the monitoring and warning service, which is the technical aspect to monitoring the hazard’s predecessor in order to foresee the evolution of the hazard, and the issue. The third element is dissemination and communication. This stage is the period whereby there needs to be thought out circulation methods in order to effectively distribute the message of the initial warning pertaining to the hazard, and have prior information preparation for those at risk. Lastly is the response capability. In the event of a natural disaster, authorities must have knowledge and plans for a timely and appropriate response rate involving an action plan. Although the sequence has a numerical order, each element has linkages and interact with each of the other elements. The second element is what is most notably recognized when talking about early warning systems. However, past experience has shown that high-quality technical predictions involving natural and geophysical disasters are insufficient by themselves. A very large factor in early warning systems is humans themselves to achieve the desired reduction of both loss of civilians and the impact on civilization. Failures in the early warning systems typically occur in the dissemination and communication element in terms of preparedness. A well-known example of a natural disaster, which was evident that they were not prepared, was New Orleans’ Hurricane Katrina, which happened back in 2005. The rescue and recovery efforts following the storm were highly criticized within the federal, state and local officials. Blame was placed on an aging and overlooked levee system. It was also blamed for the slow response rate both locally and within the state, ultimately resulting in a high death toll, and an overwhelming amount of damage. In order to effectively sustain the four elements for an effective early warning system, there would have to be political commitment, and durable institutional capacities in the event citizens need to seek refuge. This also works in conjunction with the public awareness aspect, where civilians in the places that will be affected by the disaster know where to go to seek shelter following the initial knowledge that there will in fact be a natural or geophysical disaster coming their way.

Developing a better early warning system
After the December 2004 tsunami in Thailand’s Indian Ocean, this natural disaster raised questions on early warning systems and preparedness, which lead to a call by United Nations secretary General Kofi Annan in January 2005 involving a global warning system including hazards in every country. Annan later that year requested the Internal Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) to arrange an international survey of early warning systems in order to effectively view, and find gaps and missed opportunities in order to develop a basis for worldwide capabilities.

Thailand now has an effective early warning system for Southeast Asia. Within two minutes from when the waves start to form, the Disaster Warning and Dissemination Division (NDWC) can now calculate the speed of the waves, and know when the waves are bound to hit the shore. Alerts to the public can be broadcasted in 15 minutes via satellite and warning towers. Throughout the Andaman Sea, the NDWC has now set up 136 warning towers, and three tsunami-detection buoys to help in preventing another natural disaster. When a buoy detects a tidal wave larger than normal, data is sent to the NDWC through satellite where computer screens and monitors display the information. Staff members will oversee the data and monitor them vigorously. After 24-hours of monitoring, the NDWC then sends the data collected to the Thai Meteorological Department to double-check their findings. Other agencies they also send the data to for further confirmation is the United States Geological Survey (USGS), World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and other legitimate disaster monitoring agencies. Warning messages will then be sent to the media and related agencies to warn the public through 16 fax machines, 8 hotlines, and an abundance of radio and television stations.

Biological early warning systems
Aquatic ecosystems are exposed to the environmental changes as well. Tests for water-quality help to monitor water sources for changes. Spot sampling and water quality monitoring are ways in which scientists are overseeing our waters. A biological early warning system (BEWS) has been developed based on pollutants detected, and behavioural traits of organisms.

Earthquake early warning
Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems use science and technology in conjunction, with monitoring systems to measure shaking waves derived from earthquakes. They use alert devices to communicate with people on when they can expect the earthquake to arrive at their location. This can help with preventing damages because of the earthquake such as property damages, and reduce injury. EEW systems are currently implemented throughout several countries, and others are working to build them. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has been working to implement a warning system for the United States called ShakeAlert.